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Liontrust and Investec have both passed below the 5% threshold. There will be no more TR1s concerning further reductions in their holdings, as they only are required to report when they breach every 5%.
Only Artemis, GVQ or Fidelity will have to declare if they have sold, going forward. That now is the only very near-term threat to the share price.
I'll be entirely unsurprised to see further director purchases in the next few days.
At the asking price of 34p, PHD is currently trading on a 2019/20 EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, a PER of 3.4x, and offers a FCF yield and a dividend yield of 27.8% and 5.0% respectively.
I have already used Tally to purchase numerous items on Amazon. Works just like Sterling or any other fiat currency would. No problems.
Re insurance - I believe a disaster scenario plan (i.e. Tally Ltd going bust) is already in place so that ALL the value of a client's Tally holding would be paid out to the client (in fiat currency). This is after all one of the key USPs of Tally - that it is 100% insured (and not just up to £85k, as is the case with the FSCS / FCA and Sterling in bank accounts).
I would like it down in the low 10s ideally. Only Managed a few yesterday before it went back up above 11p. Just shows how little the market makers wish to handle in size in the current climate (and that’s not just for N4 but across the board). Happy to collect off impatient PIs trading. Trying to limit my buys to a max of £10m mcap, but it’s tempting to keep adding right now!
Have added again over past half hour between 10p and 11p.
Only natural that small traders take their profits. It's only a few days of checking the upward momentum, after all.
Received portfolios back from Beaufort as of today, so will continue to add at anything around the 10-10.5p level.
I intend to add further to my position here once I have access. Announcements of the past two weeks still haven’t been fairly priced in, in my opinion, despite the 100%+ rise in the share price. Commercial collaborations will start landing in the months ahead, I think. When they do, this price range should be well and truly left behind.
I hardly check in on LSE anymore, but having read some of the recent chaos on this BB, I wanted to add my thoughts here:
I had about 5% of LION in December last year, having started building my position when the company was still KGLD, and having added my last lot in the 0.80p placing. I derisked in the subsequent couple of months following the rapid SP rise, and now hold 5.5m shares at an average of 1.20p.
My view is that the decision to not force through a rushed re-listing was correct. The Company’s share price would have been battered on a re-listing in November.
I intend to meet management soon to talk at length about Goldbloc. If everything is as I believe it is, I will try to get my hands on some more of the 1.2p warrants, if existing holders do not wish to exercise them.
Post exercise of the remaining 36 million 1.2p warrants (and at the exercise price), the Company will have a valuation of £7.0m.
The Company’s assets comprise:
100% of Goldbloc, valued at £3.0m.
30% of Kalevala, valued at £0.66m.
21% of Geomysore, valued at ~£3m.
12.5% of Railsbank, valued at £1.27m.
£0.50m cash (estimate).
£8.43m in total.
Those who have done research into Railsbank will appreciate that it could quite possibly IPO within the next 24 months with a valuation of £100m+. Further down the line, this valuation could be dwarfed. The potential for scale there is just vast. Consequently in my view, LION’s Railsbank stake effectively backstops an investment at 1.2p – even if Goldbloc and the Indian and Finnish gold mining interests completely flop.
However, my belief is that Goldbloc will NOT flop. The concept is fantastic, and operationally, the Company is making great strides as it approaches full launch. Given valuations of competitors in the space (GlintPay for instance raised at a pre-new money valuation of £45m recently), it would not be unreasonable to expect that management will attempt to attract a much, much higher valuation for Goldbloc than the current £3m.
For now, in my view it is much better that LION remains off market so that management can focus more on getting the product right in these crucial few months before full launch.
I would invest in a placing at up to 4p. However, there is not one occurring in the immediate future - because the Company has just rejected a placing offer (which was NOT less than 3p). On the other hand, that's not to say that FLX won't come back to the market in the future for more cash (I think it's highly likely that it will – and probably multiple times over the next few years – in order to fuel its stated buy-and -build strategy).
I had been averaging about 4.35p, having bought in a little over 6 months ago. But I intend to cut that average in the coming weeks by buying a lot more at current levels (awaiting fresh cash injections / recycling of existing funds).
Being down by one third in half a year doesn't actually bother me too much. Operationally, the Company has surpassed my expectations since when I first invested (I specifically refer to the SolarWinds collaboration, the fruit of which will begin to show in the financials in the next two FYs and beyond). I tend to hold AIM investments for several years, as I find they usually require that long for both the businesses to whip themselves into shape, and for the wider market to begin to appreciate their undervaluation and subsequently to rectify the situation.
The Chairman has put in around £445k at circa 4.6p average over the past two years (£300k of which was only six months ago); and an institutional investor also put in £1.5m at 4.5p, only six months ago. They will be influential in dictating the price of future placings, and they will not wish to dilute their existing holdings and knock down valuations.
The weakness in the SP is in my view due to vendors of recently acquired businesses flogging their consideration shares into the open market, at any price.
I personally see current fair value at 6.3p. That’s not accounting for any of the impending uplift that is due to kick in from the SolarWinds partnership, which I have not yet modelled for. In the longer term, I am confident of multiples of 6.3p.
Evening all, I’ve been absent from the boards a long time - shouldn’t really post (at least regularly!) on bulletin boards because of job - but I thought I’d drop in to say a massive congratulations to everyone here, on the day of the 30p milestone. It’s a joy to see so many names still here - even those from late summer 2013 when many of us first piled in on the back of Obtala and BlackRock exiting. Corbyn, you absolute chief for broadcasting this story. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to say that you’ve changed the lives of many. Thank you. I’ve kept up with the board regularly - it’s boring to say that this is the most researched board on LSE, as that’s universally known. What perhaps should be said is that you’ve helped many silent investors immeasurably with your outstanding research and perhaps more importantly for having created a genuine community. You’ve given strength to hold through the many, many dark days. Looking forward, I don’t see how 50p isn’t achievable in short order, provided that FeV prices don’t fall (personally I think they’ll keeping rising). 2020 sees us hit $500m revs at current prices: given current margins, anything below a below £1bn valuation would be horribly cheap. But even before that occurs, I stick with my suggestion in my August 2015 broker note that either or both Vametco and Vanchem are targets. One’s now in the bag; one is still to come, I’m convinced. You don’t need me to tell you that a complete lack of new supply lined up globally means that an extra 6 ktpa of supply from us might still not bring FeV prices below 100/kg. 10 ktpa output for BMN, from Vam and Van? Just look at the mcap of TSE:LGO, and remember we have a higher value product (Nitrovan over pentoxide) and much larger expansion possibilities. Oh. Then there’s Bushveld Energy. I’ve suggested to a few of you that the ultimate move would be to bring UET into group. Perhaps it’s not necessary, but given our daily-increasing power in the market - it is now feasible, I’d suggest. RED would be an easy takeover target now, but UET is far superior and the ultimate target for us. Suffice to say that BE is already being valued at nil by the market; bringing in UET would do more to the SP than even Vametco has done, IMO. Anyway - check in with you all at 50p (next month, obviously!). Cheers Myles P.s. didn’t want to mention any names because there are so many excellent contributors here - but Alfa, really epic work with the website; and BBN - come work with me anytime you’d like to!
I express my view on this matter on the bottom half of p.9 in the below document: https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/aim-for-success.pdf Hope it helps.
I suppose it's only natural that many traders / investors are freaking and cutting losses / locking in quickly shrinking profits. For me, I'm unconcerned by the drop. The aforementioned traders / investors who have sold create a domino effect, in that the share price decline gathers velocity as more and more freak out and sell. A share price is not simply going to travel steadily from bottom left to top right of the graph. There will always be ups and downs along the way. On AIM, these movements can be immense. I still hold my 4m shares from an average of 7p-ish, having averaged up significantly from initial 3p buy-in. I intend to hold for the long term, unless something changes drastically. The reformulation business has enormous potential - I value the reformulated sildenafil alone (at this current stage) at around 25p. Post trials (I'm expecting final results in June, if we assume trials start next month and last six weeks), I believe fair value should be 50p-ish. With Phase III clinical trials to commence by end of this year (and results due by end 2019), this could easily be surpassed. The other three drugs under development in the reformulation division also hold vast potential. As for Nuvec � the platform has a distinct possibility of really shaking up the vaccine delivery market. A $180 bn market pa. AstraZeneca is evidently very interested in the platform � which we�re hoping will become the world�s first approved nanosilica-based drug delivery vehicle. For me at least, it�s inconceivable that other Tier 1 pharmas won�t also be very interested in the tech. Management has recently been at conferences in both Japan and Holland to open discussions with such potential partners. It seems, from reading various social media outlets, that retail punters were anticipating partnerships to be announced just days after each trip. I can assure you that AZ and N4 would have been discussing the parameters of a potential partnership for months, before signing. Expect no less from European and Japanese partners. However, these partnerships, once signed, will assist in building a bank of crucial data for the platform. This will then enable N4 to enter into new agreements both with these same partners and with other major pharmas, to provide Nuvec as a delivery system for dozens of vaccines currently under development. In my view, there is also the distinct possibility that one of the global leaders � Merck, Pfizer, etc. that has a multitude of vaccines under development in-house � will simply acquire the Nuvec platform outright, in order to gain a competitive advantage for its proprietary portfolio of vaccines. It�s plucking a number out of thin air, but I for one am putting a �50m price tag on Nuvec in its current state. I believe this could be many multiples in just a few short years. Look at the Merck / Moderna deal of 2016, for example (and consider how early
Haven't started yet, as the 8 March RNS alludes to. I suspect that is what has caused the recent weakness in the share price, despite that incredible Nuvec update. The majority of AIM-focussed punters have extremely short-term outlooks, and so no doubt have freaked out about a 2 month delay to the start of the sildenafil trials. I am entirely unconcerned. I have been holding for two years now, and will be happy to wait two more. The significance of that Nuvec update seems to have been missed by the wider market. We're in possession of a genuine gamechanger to the vaccine delivery market. I expect at least two more partnerships for Nuvec to be announced in the coming months. As for sildenafil - I believe that the key players in the ED market are already acutely aware of N4's reformulation. Indeed, I'd be entirely unsurprised if talks have already been held, however preliminary.
I think you have misunderstood. The funds that MKA has now WILL be affected by workings at Lancaster. MKA's (and by MKA I assume that you are referring to the PLC) cash inflows will increase considerably as it bills Lancaster for its work on the BFS (of course, outflows will increase considerably as it works on the BFS). The net effect is MKA will no longer have to raise cash specifically for developing Songwe Hill (in my view ever) again - unless Talaxis drops out of the project altogether.
Given that Lancaster is a subsidiary and not an associate, it won�t be so much �throwback profit� as simply capital on Lancaster�s balance sheet that is under the direct control of MKA�s executives. Who is there to challenge them? Noble after all is MKA�s largest shareholder, and will not wish to be diluted at PLC level. There are very few items that MKA could not expense from Lancaster � off the top of my head, maybe only the �30k pa fee to the Nomad might have to come solely from MKA�s own balance sheet? Noble, Talaxis and MKA will be working closely together as allies, I don�t think anyone can argue there. Thus cash should not be an issue in the slightest for MKA shareholders. A quick Google search suggests that the rainy season in Malawi ends mid-April, and so I�d imagine infill drilling to begin in May. The teams are no doubt already planning the programme. Drilling for say 10 weeks, a further 10 weeks to receive results and then update the resource � say late October? At this point the next �7m would be released to MKA, and that pays for the technical teams to work on the BFS over the rainy season. There might be some more exploratory drilling / fieldwork again in 2019 � although that is only a guess on my part. Therefore I would expect the BFS to be completed by Q4 2019, and very soon after a decision to mine to be made by Talaxis. There is also the incredibly exciting developments at Maginito to look forward to. In my opinion the major NdFeB magnet manufacturers � and by extension their clients, the global car manufacturers moving into EVs � will already be watching this subsidiary of MKA with interest. Bear in mind that MKA made more than 10x its original investment in the Metalysis JV (a few hundred �k for an 85% interest, into a 75.5% stake in Maginito which was valued by the Talaxis deal at �4.1m) in less than four months. That should give some indication as to how our partners Talaxis value the technology being developed by Metalysis (over which Maginito now holds exclusivity).
Very happy with operational progress here. Share price movement has a been an incredible surprise (not exactly in a good way!); but I am in no way concerned. Averaging a little over 3p - but I would have much preferred to have invested at 7.5p now than at 3p over the course of the past 20 months. The story is de-risked now to an infinitely greater extent. �5m committed to Songwe by a trading house, and �7m more to come later this year. �12m investment for a minority stake; and yet the market cap remains at a little over half of the minority investment! Nonsensical. Of greater significance however is the option that Talaxis possesses to increase its stake in Songwe Hill to 75%. Talaxis will be required to take care of sourcing ALL project finance ($220m). At a 80% / 20% debt / equity split, this would require them to inject a further $44m equity at project level, as well as source / provide $176m in debt. Something else I have noticed on this BB from the more negative posters: commentary that MKA will have to carry out another equity raise in the relatively near term. This is, in short, utter bull. Talaxis / MKA have structured it so that the �12m injection into Songwe will filter back to the TopCo to cover the vast majority of the PLC�s costs. This is achievable because the major part of the PLC�s costs will be claimed as project management fees (after all, the MKA team is essentially in charge of running the BFS!). Accordingly, unless Talaxis / Noble decide to acquire another project, it is highly unlikely that MKA�s equity base will be diluted for the foreseeable future (except by outstanding warrants). What a fantastic place to be in. Thambani / Chimimbe Hill - bar only a couple of hundred thousand dollars on the latter, I believe that only negligible amounts will be invested in these projects at PLC level. As with Songwe, the intention is to receive investment at project level, so as to again protect the equity base of the PLC from dilution.
A very brief valuation analysis of Songwe Hill: aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/aim-for-success.pdf (see pp.7-9). Talaxis' investment values Songwe at �24.5m. Maginito - which received its first �1m of investment yesterday - has been given a valuation of �4.1m. I'd also give each of Thambani and Chimimbe Hill a nominal valuation of �1m (of course this leaves scope for vast valuation upside within each project). That gives MKA a present fair value share price (based on Noble's investment entry valuations) of 28.7p, based on the 106.8m shares in issue. Clearly, Noble will want to see significant valuation uplifts in both Songwe and Maginito.
Have taken an initial position here today. The year end results were encouraging, I thought. However, limited top line growth YoY coupled with the CEO walking has created some serious weakness in the SP. I view this weakness as unjustified and completely overdone. H2 growth in invoiced sales was 59%, which should be considered as the most accurate indicator of current top line growth rate. Aziza leaving was a blow, but is only a temporary issue. After all, the value here lies predominantly in the industry leading technology that FBT possesses. The Company is cashed up (having raised at a 54% premium to the current share price only three months ago), and has a solid growth strategy in place. For me, a significant protection to the investment case resides in the FBT being a potential buyout target for numerous entities.