Member Info for Adon30

TGB-2 now interpreted as western distal limit of the MOU-4 submarine fan ("MOU-4 Target")

The rns told us that the original MOU1 ‘bright spot’ target of TGB2 was not actually a separate structure. It was found to be a trap of the TGB2a/MOU4 target.
Remember TGB2a was only established as being an additional target because of Covid delays and the location of MOU1 meant that they could also de-risk on the western extremity at the same time.
But it has since been established that they are connected.

“what if it has become evident from the logs of MOU1 ...
that there is not ONLY connectivity (via SGB2A sands) to MOU4
but via MULTIPLE CONNECTIVITIES to other locations as well?”

If these sands are connected and supplied by an even deeper ‘kitchen’ does that mean they could continue to ‘refill’ once upper traps are found? Or have I gone the wrong way with that…?

As it’s a major trading update and zephyr is registered to the LSE I’d still think a 7am rns more likely. Although they can come out anytime during the day.

For a clue on depth this may be worth people looking at (for the ones that haven’t already)
https://www.petropedia.com/2/9808/oil/biogenic-and-thermogenic-gases-how-significant-they-are-in-energy-space

Zea Servant with new rig anchored just off the coast of T&T along with several others waiting for a space at port.

Interesting how big buys are going through as sells again. That’s not the first one that I’ve noticed today.
Sells very obviously in the 5.6s and a 5.7 goes through as a sell as well. There’s another 200k and 150k that went through as unknown and sell as well and they were obvious buys at above 5.7. Certainly being held today.

04-Aug-21 12:07:05 5.625 72,012 Sell* 4,051 O
04-Aug-21 12:04:09 5.735 100,000 Sell* 5,735 O
04-Aug-21 11:55:43 5.655 70,901 Sell* 4,009 O

It is probably just traders leaving that know little about the project.
They have only just started the lateral drilling which will be completed shortly. The cyclone drilling team is vastly experienced in what they are doing and one of the reasons they were chosen.
The only ‘slightly’ bad outcome that I can see is if the natural fractures do not flow sufficiently on there own. However they can always use hydraulic fracture to rectify that, so no real issues.
GLA

If you look at the figures I quoted I discounted those figures based on that first payment by 10% to allow for POO changes and any difference in flow rate. However POO has gone up! They were conservative figures so you could expect 10-20% more income than I quoted.
If we get some more up to date figures and flow rates then these can be recalculated.
Also by end of August all of the capital expenditure will have been covered including the 22 wells in the continental operated area (even though only 2 completed so far). From there onwards it is pure cash back to the company to reinvest.
GLA

Oil with EOR extraction…..

The drill prior to going into the lateral would have intersected the multiple stacked layers above the cane creek at different points to previously tested. The EGI has funded additional data acquisition of these multiple stacked layers including Dipole logging. These layers may also overlap into adjacent acreage. All of this would have been completed before continuation of the lateral and this is probably why the initial drilling took a little longer than thought. But best to get as much data on these as possible now before the ‘black gold’ starts flowing from the cane creek.

Yes. No tax deductions as all offset. $16m worth (think that was the figure) so late 2022 before tax deductions considered

Back at the beginning of May I performed some calculations for the initial Iverson well payment for the Williston/Whiting well interest. This was around the same time that the Williston/Continental acreage was procured. Things have progressed massively since then and in double quick time......

So this is an update to my quick sums....

Figures based on initial Iverson well payment received for April and then discounted it by 10% to allow for any oil price changes or production variations.
So:
1 x well @ $125k per month - 4 months (April to July) x $125k = $500K

July update: 2 x S-Bar & 2 x Feehan wells have also been placed into production
Then August onwards payments received from all 5 completed wells
5 x wells @ $125k per month - 5 x $125k = $625K

So by end of August $1.25M cash coming from the Williston/Whiting well interest alone (remember that figure)

Onto Expenditure (Just oil production here as not including Paradox)
$170k to purchase The Continental acreage (Was from current cash reserve but included for illustration)
$135k to drill 2 new wells (Continental) of which drilling now completed
$710k to drill 22 future proposed wells (Continental)
(new 37,613 acreage acquisition not included as no figure given)

Total Expenditure = $1.015M

So end of August $1.25M cash Less $1.015M Expenditure = Positive cash balance of $235k

Through September the 5 active wells are making ~$625k per month.
Then in October the first 2 x Williston/Continental will also be paying
7 x wells @ $125k per month - 7 x $125k = $875K

From then on the 7 active wells are making ~$875k per month. So just from them (assuming no other Williston/Continental wells completed) by year end a positive cash balance of over $3.5m.
Then with the newly drilled wells coming online from Q1 onwards with further well drilling right through 2022 and into 2023 will continue cash flow.

As for exploration. The paradox lateral is funded and underway in July 2021 and then by end of year ZEPHYR will be fully funded for further exploration drilling just from the production (if someone hasn't already stepped in following the Paradox/ Cane Creek drill). Will be interesting to see what is pencilled in....

Happy for comments as may have missed something

The future is bright. The future is yellow (Ties)!

Can still take the ‘bread and butter’ elsewhere. There were a large number of countries that expressed an interest.
Also interesting that they are sending lonny to T&T to look over CO2 operations and get up to speed on that. Especially with Morocco speeding up as well.
Does anyone have any thoughts on use of the process in Morocco and what it could achieve on their oil industry?

I was getting worried that my Wednesday rns prediction wouldn’t happen then as they were all delayed a few minutes.
Good news though with the extra acquisition. Looks like they picked it based on the infrastructure available to further reduce costs similar to state 16-2.
Next part of the drill underway also so they must now have the extra cores and overlying reservoirs data collected now.

Yes those plates are all still spinning. Found this an interesting statement
“ Opportunities have been identified to potentially realise the investment made to date in C02 EOR in Trinidad through consolidation with in-country producers expressing an interest in C02 EOR services provided by Predator Oil & Gas Trinidad Ltd.”
Would that be a sell off of all or part of the CO2 business to Massy?

I completed and posted these calcs on Saturday (or Sunday) and have added extracts from the original post.

I included in my calculations another 40m share dilution for various reasons. However my current thinking regardless of the price per share i have shown calculated is that the monetisation of this particular prospect (if successful) could easily fund the future drilling campaign to begin with and the need for further share dilution is removed. It could then provide shareholder VALUE at a later time.

Here it is:

“So my halved price per share per bcf is 0.58p (based on 333m shares issued)

…..I have performed a single calculation on TGB2 which is the current area to be perforated and tested. This is detailed in the presentation as prospects of 50 to 138bcf for 10-55m sand thickness. So estimates are 29p to 80p per share.
The latest RNS however has described this as being 75m of sands. This scaled up gives a high estimate of 188bcf or £1.09 per share.

Just a caveat. These are my own calculations based on the information available. Others may have different ideas of how to interpret the data so alway DYOR.”

GLA

Great post method. Puts everything I know and have tried to express on this BB in a much more eloquent way. Much better than I could achieve.

GLA

https://twitter.com/TouchstoneExp/status/1419700753896247306

Price will get pushed up or down depending on the US market. The trading continues after the London exchange closes and the uk market reopens at what the otc finishes (exchange rate equivalent).
As ZPHR is listed on the LSE all rns publications will still be for that market first so the advantage on any news is with the LSE.

If for example there was a unofficial news leak in the afternoon (US time) and manic buying followed on the otc. Then London could open massively up the following day already with an rns confirming the leaked news.
Can also go the other way though. But as no volume yet in otc will have little effect at present.