Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks JTS, it's nice when just once in a while this BB can be used for a sensible debate!
My references to Amazon / Asos were that they will already have expensive sophisticated warehouse picking systems in place, so flagging that the market for the solutions arm will be limited in some ways.
Having tried myself I know that Tesco / Sainsburys / Iceland are all having the same trouble with order volumes but the difference in my mind is that people already know those brands and may have used online delivery on occasion (certainly my situation) whereas for many Ocado will have been a first time - so it's that first impression / interaction which has been damaged.
I do also think because of the above they may go too far in accommodating the short term demand and then end up with excess capacity dragging on the margins.
I do think there is a danger of a NEXTesque worker revolt at the warehouse or with the drivers which would obviously put Ocado on it's backside, at least temporarily, either that or they will have to come to some agreement to incentivise them to stay in post - which again will chomp into the margins, possibly permanently if they agree permanent improvements to term, see the articles below;
https://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/18330957.i-terrified-spreading-it-erith-ocado-driver-slams-company-response-virus/
https://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/18337507.second-erith-ocado-worker-speaks-lack-virus-precaution-delivery-depot/
So fair to say my short is opportunistic and based on "news" rather than techincal / fundamentals - I'm just trying to evaluate the upside risk!
Hi Chaps,
Question for investors here, where do people see the profits getting to in order to support the current Mkt Cap / a higher Market Cap?
Even if Ocado managed to bring in £400m EBITDA annually from selling it's warehouse solutions that would be a PE of 22 based on current market cap.
I get that it's solutions can be multi-use but let's be honest the big online players Amazon / Asos have probably already spend what Ocado have on R&D and already possess systems on par / ahead of Ocado's.
Full disclosure having been suspicious for a while I'm on the verge of opening a short position as I see a good risk/reward scenario related to consequences of COVID-19 (lack of order fulfilment & loss of potential customers, increased costs when demand subsides to normal levels) so I always like to share my thoughts before doing so and hear what people on the other side of the argument think the key attractions to the business are.
Thanks
Aaron
"In the process of making"
"due on 20th March"
I'm a holder here but there's no point of overlooking the ambiguity of this RNS, obvious questions are;
Why is it late?
Why not just announce once it's actually been paid?
Where's the confirmation of the £7m payment they were expecting plus news on further batches?
Hopefully, although strange to see Aberdeen selling down their holding now.
Struggle to see what their strategy & rationale for holding up to this point was if they sell now circa 6-8 weeks before a likely outcome of the case.
Potentially Intu can use the requests from retailers for rent holidays (which we are pretty much all demanding) to press the Gov't for a chunk of the £330bn announced this afternoon by CofE and use that to pay down a portion of it's debts - as it will sit separately to the asset secured loans it shouldn't have an impact on their LTV ratios and being Gov't backed you expect the interest rates to reflect that.
If Mr Roberts isn't on the phone to Mr Sunak this evening he wants relieving of his position in the morning...
This isn't AIM its main market.
Mr Winnifrith has his opinions but others obviously disagree which is why we have a market here!
Cash is king though and that's up £8.5m!
Take heart from Kier guys, been down in the doldrums and "going bust" for most of last year but today put out some O-K results and up 36%, ok still way down on 3 year highs but clearly a bit of relief and positive momentum behind it now.
Net debt of £242m on a MKT Cap of £225m - so worse than INTU on that perspective.
I know they are vastly different businesses and scenarios but just to flag that admin isn't inevitable here.
Healthy - yes and Trafford Centre is his baby so you can bet he's looking for one way or another to keep hold of this asset, its's just whether there's a more cost effective way to do it than via a formal takeover...
Thanks Yuri,
Your calculations have laid it out all so clearly for us, I don't know what we'd do without learned contributors like you on the board.
You've correctly identified ALL of the key issues here and done so brilliantly, your company analytical skills are second to none, I guess you must've worked for one of the big firms as an analyst earlier in your life?
Although you might want to just re-do your calcs because £4.5bn value divided by 1.36 bn shares is £3.30 a share - and you can buy it now for just 7p!!!!!!!!
Quick Yuri call your broker before everyone else reads this and gets in on the act...
In theory yes, however book value and realised sale prices are different things.
Obviously it's easy with hindsight but the BOD have been too ****-sure here and should have tried to sell an asset or 2 this time last year, their reluctance has cost them for sure.
A lot of the centres are under-utilised from a land perspective so I am still struggling to believe that an investor with less of a cash pinch hasn't come in and pushed on with plans to re-develop, however perhaps they are taking the view they will just buy the asset they want out of admin if it goes that way.
Yields are still pretty sensible so regrettably this could get worse in the next 6 months, the highest yield they've got is Braehead up at 8.5%
At this point Whittaker may as well buy the rest if the shares, sell everything else and keep the Trafford Centre, would be cheaper than buying the Trafford centre!
In this morning, no equity raise achievable at this time, company reviewing other ways to structure and considering disposals.
Portfolio down a further £2bn, yields out to just under 6%.
Flagged that covenant tests likely to be breached in July 2020.