Observations5 Jun 2020 07:29
1. At the time of the Franco announcement the company was careful not to say that the funds raised would be sufficient to address the requirements for exploration of other concessions. A number of people asked about this and, at that stage, it wasn't clear. Had we read through the lines we would have been able to guess more was required. Some may see this as disingenuous and that the company should have been more open. I don't see it that way.
2. As I'd said previously, the directors were never going to buy in the market and would only subscribe for new shares. The fact they didn't at the time of Franco was another clear indication a further fundraise was on the way.
3. The company is seeking, via the placing, to introduce some new shareholders to the register. The fact they didn't simply go to BHP and NEW is very revealing. Both companies could have stumped up the cash without blinking an eye. By the way, there's no guarantee the new shareholders will be "sticky" and my guess is a few will sell as soon as they see a decent return.
4. If we assume BHP and NEW were not asked about this, but have been invited to participate along with everyone else, will they have had sufficient time to get their corporate ducks in a row? I doubt it.
5. If they don't take up up new shares for reasons of timing, it's fair to assume this may further disrupt the relationship between the parties.
6. The Primary Bid element is a good thing. However, the restricted timing makes it look as if they aren't really that interested in having new private investors onboard. It looks like a pr move.
7. The announcement contained a further reference to CITI and it's role. Most companies who are under threat don't make a great play of similar appointments. It's almost as if NM is daring potential bidders to have a go, whilst simultaneously warning them that he's ready for a scrap.
Every step and announcement the company has made recently suggests that NM really has fallen out with the majors. He is desperate to move away from reliance upon them and similarly, he's saying "we don't need you". So, they've stumped up the cash to get the company this far (and it's not small change, as some would have you believe) and now he's telling them to f-off. Can you imagine the reaction to this around the boardroom tables at BHP and NEW? NM is poking a hornets nest and eventually they'll emerge and make life very uncomfortable for him.
This is either the strategy of a genius, or it's naive in the extreme.