Member Info for addicknt

of you guys looked at the web sites of CMi2i and Boudicca?
They tell you all you need to know.
A bid is coming and NM knows it.

redk, he will have been told to do so. In a hostile situation (and I include CGP's attack) having multiple interests are seen as a severe weakness and open to criticism. Investors don't like it.

L2, yes, that's been discussed a fair bit and, were it anyone but BHP, I'd see it as more likely. But it is BHP and they want this for themselves. They will see no good reason for providing funding only for shareholders of another company to benefit - I mean, who in their right mind would?

Quady, I do have a price target, but it's so theoretical it's not worth sharing. All I do know, is that it's far in excess of where we are now. JerryS and I have very different views on this and my price is well in excess of his.
As to the shape of a deal, it will be a cash offer - I really can't see BHP wanting to dilute it's own shareholders by making the offer partly paper-based.
By the way, I agree with you about time adding value. But the key is not to push it too far. BCN made that fatal mistake and the CEO has turned the company into a virtual zombie stock as a result.

Morning, Quady.
A question: do you really believe BHP are going to be content with holding a minority position in this company? Is it your belief that once NM announces the long awaited finance package, they will slink off with their tails between their legs?
Let's assume NM recognises what a weak position he's in (which I'm certain he does) and seeks to strike a deal with BHP whereby they provide the funding and in so doing take effective control without having to bid. Would you see this as a good thing?
I fully understand your belief that the returns would be greater over the long term if we are independent and, to some degree, I agree with you. But surely you can see BHP are simply not going to accept this? 15% of the company is of no use to them whatsoever and they most certainly aren't about to turn their backs on a discovery of this magnitude.
As NM repeatedly says, this is all about maximizing shareholder value, which he knows must come about during takeover negotiations - hence todays appointments , both at board level and of corporate advisors. By the way, I can't recall seeing the appointment of so many advisors by a company that feels secure in its future path. Surely, you can see what's coming?

The engagement of the two proxy engagement solicitation forms is in recognition of what's coming, as is the appointment of Whites. The company is engaged in a controlled process of arranging the defence mechanism. Companies are often caught out when a bid is made and go scrabbling around appointing such firms who then have a desperate task of trying to get up to speed - which they rarely do. NM is making sure they are already onboard - at some cost and are ready to go when the inevitable bid occurs.
It's going to happen chaps and today's announcement makes it abundantly clear NM knows it is.

"there", not "their" - I've only just got out of my pit.

is that this is good news for us small shareholders. It removes the opportunity for CGP to win the argument at an EGM, which I believe would have been a very bad thing.
It does not lessen the chances of their being a takeover, but should mean we'll get a more balanced view around the boardroom table.
This strategy was definitely devised by CITI.

We've been living with the political risk factor since Day 1 and, although it's been a slow process, we have inched towards greater certainty.
The parlous economic situation of Equador, which will not change, has only one solution - mining. It has nothing else going for it. (tourism is nowhere near sufficient) Ironically, this imperative will provide a more stable background and has been referred to endlessly by the government.
When a country's back is up against the wall and has a readily available solution, does anyone really think they won't take it?

I recall at the time this issue raised its head - was it last year, or the year before?, I forget, I did a lot of digging around on the topic, even going so far as to ask an old friend who has responsibility for the issue at the World Bank.
It was really difficult to get any definitive answers until, after sending three or four emails to the company, they finally stated that none of the key concessions were in protected areas. They followed this up with a single sentence in one of the corporate updates.
I still don't know why they were reluctant to clarify the point, but the fact is they eventually did.
I am content that we are unaffected by the protected status question.

Jerry, the fact is I've never filtered anyone and would prefer not to. However, some of the utter balls posted on here recently has sorely tempted me.

Here we go again!
When I posted something about this on Monday, I think it was, we enjoyed 24 hours of relative clam and rational discussion. As the week has progressed we've sunk into yet another period of idiotic name-calling and petty nonsense.
Were it not for the fact that there remains a number of good posters on here, I can see no good reason to read this page.
God knows what a newcomer would make of it all.
For Christs's sake, grow up!

Richy, I think you may be right - it's the only way he's going to save his bacon. Failure to engage properly with BHP will, one way or another, spell the end of his tenure.

All short term price movements here are totally irrelevant and why anyone would sell is completely beyond me.

Quady, yes they would put forward their nominees and will circulate details to all shareholders prior to the meeting.
The major shareholders may vote for them if they are of the opinion that NM is impeding their ambitions of a takeover -on-the-cheap. Unless CGP can put forward some outstanding candidates with a proven track record and who are demonstrably independent of NCM and BHP, I'll be voting against.

Just to pursue the thought that Citi will be able to ward-off a hostile approach, the problem they have is that many of the traditional poison pills defences are not available to the company. This is by virtue of the fact the most likely bidders are already significant shareholders and would vote down such measures.
The only route I can see is to make the financing package completely onerous to a bidder. The obvious problem there is that it would also be hugely onerous to our company, so I don't see that happening. And if NM tried it on, an EGM would definitely be held and he'd definitely lose his job.
So, we have very limited options if someone wants to come after us. I know some of you think that if we keep finding huge assets elsewhere and our sp rises to reflect them, the company will become "too expensive". It won't. In fact it'd be even more attractive and the likes of BHP could fund it easily.
All of this will be known by NM and he finds himself in a very tricky situation and to me, this is the prime reason he wants CGP - as a defensive manouevre, and he's not going to get it.

That comment from CITI is confusing. It appears to be totally at odds with what everyone else is saying.
Thoughts anyone?

Morning, Quady.

The alternative view:

1. CGP may be bluffing, but if they aren't, I believe they will get support of NCM. BR are unlikely to because institutions have to have a very good reason to vote against an investee board. I think BHP would if their hands weren't tied.

2. I agree BHP won't sell, NCM may and BR would sell if there's a decent offer on the table.

3. Impossible to say "no one else will buy CGP". There are too many variables and possible scenarios.

4. Agreed, there will be some dilution.

5. Agreed

6. We'll never agree on this.

7. The company is hugely vulnerable. The arithmetic of the shareholdings tells you all you need to know. Independence depends entirely upon the reaction of BHP. The best defensive strategy would be to do a deal with BHP which would require NM to accept we will be a minority shareholder and that he would be put out to pasture. Personally, I don't see him doing that and I hope he doesn't.

Let's hope we continue to see the recent enthusiasm.

It can't be to BHP at this stage, as much as BHP would want it. Unless BHP have come to an agreement with Mather that they will take the shares, fund the development and become the majority shareholder. In other words, a similar arrangement to the GGP/NCM deal. I would not be happy if this were the case.

My gut feeling is that something will soon emerge from Newcrest, and my bet is on a sale of their holding.