Member Info for adamsmithfreethi

The scale of what they are trying to exploit in Dugbe is not that of your usual junior minor and thus at first blush it looks like the grades (literally) unearthed appear to be modest. However, I suspect if they do gear up for production they will be aiming to be profitable at grade down even to below 0.5 grm/tonne. If so then what they have found potentially is profitable. For reference CEY mine ore regularly at this level and have until now made a decent profit.
I think what they are trying to communicate is the scale of what they might eventually dig up. 6km is a lot of land with potentially a lot of ore underneath. If might be nothing it might be something. I do not the Canadian share price went up by 5% on the news, so somebody thinks this development is promising.
If nothing else this demonstrates the scale of the challenge and what a reasonable idea it was to outsource the initial stages to guys comfortable with tackling a challenge at this scale. Mind you I am definitely not happy with the directors taking interests in the joint venture.
Also thanks for the various comments on SC selling out. It still sounds really dumb but I guess if they bought at 12-13p they're still making a profit. Would have made much more at 40p mind you!

Thanks for responding Juxt - for a minute I thought the only response would be from Pile of Bile BT!

I can't argue with your stats - they are what they are. Presumably you're imputing the reason for their selling?
Sure small stocks like HUM, AAZ et al are illiquid. But they've always been illiquid so why did SC end up owning over 13%. last May. It seems crazy to them to be in that position and not sell out properly in the bull period June to October when the stock was regularly topping 40p and given the enhanced volumes they would have found ready buyers for much of their stock.
Surely they haven't just lost their nerve and sold out at the first whiff of grapeshot! In this case 2 consecutive bad RNSs? It just looks so amateur? At the back of my mind I keep asking - is there anything out there that they have internalised that we haven't?
I hope not!!!

Sent a request to the company for a date. We'll see...

I'm always amused when discussion turns to real or imagined II programmed sales. Not just here just on pretty much all the boards I've looked at. Just for the record I'm a HUM holder so have no interest in de-ramping.
The cynic in me says that talk about an II persistently selling is a form of comfort blanket for disappointed retail investors and "excuses" them for their poor decisions at poor or poor timing at best. After all IIs are paid handsomely to manage their clients money. Surely these professionals wouldn't just sell in some dumb mechanistic manner when new information comes flooding onto the market that might cause them to reconsider their positions. Take HUM. It's AISC is very very high must be 4th quartile. It's a simple matter of mathematics that says the greatest beneficiaries of a rise in the gold price are those that are marginally profitable. It's leverage after all. Clearly its early days, the price might not stick, but every day it does profits at HUM (assuming no other problems) go up, cash goes up, optionality (which has a value all to itself) goes up.
Surely such masters of the universe would pause their selling programmes, at least in the short term to maximise the value of their investment.
But then again maybe not? In which case nobody will convince me ever again that markets at the AIM level are anything approaching "efficient" if the so called professionals act in this way.
It's a genuine puzzle for me...

Anybody got a hunch when these are due out? This time last year they had already been produced...

Taser - fair commentary on all that has happened so far although I thought you were a bit harsh on stuttering bit. Not sure I could have done any better and I don't stutter! Shame they didn't touch on the fraud and delay to accounts. I know it is a bit sensitive but to completely ignore the elephant in the room was a disappointment.
The drilling results looked good and I liked his point about no extra drilling ramp required since they can just drill through to the new veins.
It's always difficult to attempt to put hard figures on drilling results but it looks like the they are at the very least maintaining reserves at Palito on the back of the downward drilling. As far as surface results go. Yes they don't look too good but clearly there is gold further to the North and South (400-600 metres I think he said). Again it's difficult to know what this means in terms of increased potential.
Do you know how long the existing vein structures are for Mogno and Ipe. I can't seem to make it out from the drawings.
Still you're right about negative goodwill. It seems to exist for pretty much the entire Junior Miner Sector!

Hmmm are we talking bitcoin now?

Lol - enough for a decent holiday would be a start

Just topped up £10k at 7.43 - let's see whether that was a good decision....

This will no doubt enrage old Bushy Tail but I've also topped up. Assuming the audit was done properly (no reason to assume otherwise) then a big risk that the fraud went much deeper is off the table. Plus gold is slightly up and the drill results show at the very least gold is being replaced as fast as it is mined.
If the overall stock market is in retreat so what if the NPV of the particular operation that one is invested in goes up?

Terminal decline eh? Nobody told the share price! If anybody listened to investor meet this morning then maybe they'll agree with me that this has still got much further to run.
It's more than possible to make a heckavalotta money in so called declining industries.
Think of the fantastic run big tobacco has had since the 1990s/
You just need a monopoly and decent management...

As a CMCL shareholder I'd second your comments. At the moment ZBW is no worse than the average African jurisdiction and better than some e.g. Tanzania

Really what are you talking about - debits and credits? Next thing you'll be telling me you're a fully paid up accountant!

This whole debate arose around the ability of HUM to fund future development. You can spout as much faux accounting as you like but you cannot avoid the fact that if net cash goes up by 20m a year and you start with 1.5m net cash then you have ~20m to play with. Not the fantasy numbers you seem to pull out at random of your anus.
For serious investors the question is, is 20m sufficient to fund both Guinea and Dugbe?
My guess is probably but it will be tight. Nothing further can go wrong with Mali operations, the gold price and costs will need to be spaced out as much as possible to ration cash spend. That could mean delays to the development timetable which of course will disappoint some.
But then the alternative is a capital raise.
Life ain't easy when you're a junior miner...

I refer you to DMs original point - you know the one you studiously avoided to answer and covering your tracks with insults.
I quote -
Q1 2021 net cash $4.9m, Q4 2020 net cash $1.5m. Ergo NET CASH added to the balance sheet $3.4m

For the avoidance of doubt I believe net cash INCLUDES the repayment of loans. Geddit?

BT you said "No one said 9 million net cash was added,"
Apart from all the insults what did you say?
NOTHING - just a load on insults - well as a reasonable person I think dropinmonkey has a point.
If you generate 3.5m cash over one quarter then allowing for say improved grades in later qtrs then - 20m at year end is a reasonable proposition?
If you don't agree and, save the insults , tell me why, cos I'm still waiting after this whole debate!!!

You can always tell how the share price is doing by the language. Anybody who complains about trolls whilst simultaneously add c**t is clearly lacking a fair degree of self awareness.
TBTT may or may not have an agenda but I've found it analysis reasonable on this and other boards. By all means wish him away but that won't help the share price.
Who knows about Karoussa but Dugbe is a different matter. They look like having a giant prospect on their hands. They've bought some time until December but after that they'll need to pony up some cash.
Question is - will they be earning enough margin between now and then?

Excellent thanks!

Any idea when we are relieved of our shares in exchange for the above?
Likely timescales?

"earnings infliction point" - love it!
I think you've hit on a new way of describing the impact on us poor investors of the average quarterly update from HUM. Over the last few quarters at least.
Ha ha

Not sure I understood all that!!! First things first I'm not positing like others on the bb that HUM are not generating cash this quarter, I simply don't know. But I think it will be tight. As far as the spiel on the costs are concerned I look at as follows:
AISC covers pretty much all the day to day costs of running the mine and including longer term provisions such as remediations etc. However, each company has their own interpretation of what AISC means so some costs are excluded e.g. exploration i.e. drilling.
Given this in terms of overall profitability you need to look at AISC plus additional stuff like drilling that has been excluded. Currently if I had to guess HUM are marginally profitable.
As far as cash is concerned not all AISC incurred in any quarter will be spent. Much will be spent in the following quarter and some much further out than that. So first iteration says that cash flatters the overall position. However, 2nd iteration says some cash will be spent this quarter from expenses incurred in previous Q1. So that pegs cash back a bit and results in cash being more in line with ultimate profitability.
However, I think looking a cash quarter by quarter is useful but accruals DO count. Sooner or later some of that lovely cash in the bank will be earmarked by obligation incurred today.
Make of that what you will!