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I am pretty sure it was lower before. (section Valuation)
For me this looks good. We are not the first one in the gvt papers so if only the private market takes place we have good positioned. (there are only 53 tests available right now when we count on the temporary list and we are inside). So if no free test are deliver (except for special situation or people) we have more chances to be solicited (and sell). If the situation go worse (like in germany) we will use the plan B. Free tests and "nothing will change" from the current situation. So I see something good coming but I maybe missed something.
A propos I remember (if my memory works again) they was estimate novacyt for 1 month ago to 0.74 as fair price :)
it seems they change their mind. :D
(proof for excalibur : https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Novacyt-half-year-update.pdf)
As part of its expansion in private testing, the Company has also signed a supply contract
initially for genesig® COVID-19 products with Excalibur Healthcare Services, who have
invested in new laboratory services in Cambridge, UK, to support COVID-19 testing of
So there is the temporary list, the non officiel list (like the 9 products awaiting from novacyt), the new one that coming. :D I think we will get 3 others pandemies before they will be treated.
Theorically the deadline is in february.
I take the first articles I found (I link the search I use and I didn't try to read them in details to avoid a filtering for my side.)
(there are optimistic scase and negatives too If I have got correctly)
After posting, I will try to read them in details and try to make my own opinion on it.
Only claim A or B is not enough for me. If you have real proof I will take it.
I am not saying that Novacyt will not survive without covid this is not the question. (I am really happy of GM decision to capitalise on covid because It is the opportunity to get money to see bigger) I say that without trusted sources the debate make no sense.
If someone think the articles are biases he/she can do the same. If someone have more article please send it to this thread. At the end we will maybe get a thread with enough information to have a better overview and maybe take the right decision.
Based on search : covid 2022 prediction end (google) November 07 2021
August 23, 2021
May 25, 2021
October 12, 2021
7 April 2020
7 October 2021
September 28, 2021
September 22, 2021
November 07 2021
(this one is the best I like (many article says : case will decrease for March 2022 (like for 2021 but the pandemic is not over or am I wrong?)
it seems you are really aware or the situation.
Could you please give us all the sources you use to base your jugement on.
If you and the scientific community has made a so radical jugement I will maybe be able to understand your words. For the moments the articles I read are open without a clear consensus. (I will try to collect and post them if I could :) )
So please you are welcome give us your information. At the end if we are wrong you will maybe help us to change our mind.
I don't get why the market see the end of covid and the PRC testing. Am I alone?
Currently we see new variants that resist to antibody, vaccine that lose there efficiency over time and people more and more suspicious about vacine. For me this will lead to new time for new variants, for new vaccine and a new circle will start.
The world is so unorganized, only wearing a mask is too much for many people and respect the minimal requirements. Inegality, always asking for freedom without constraint and indiscipline will build the perfect environment for new resistant variants.
Moreover the PRC market itself has created a new market "fast reliable and cheap testing".
So I don't get it why covid prevision for next year are so low. I really don't get why we are by 230p.
(This is really not a buy or sell advice. I would like to see another SP direction but I really try to understand the current SP) (Even if novacyt is stingy on communication, the novacyt capacity and skills cannot be ignored)
I am not sure but maybe the amount of products plays again novacyt in this case. It seems that the gvt try to let the best product of each company into the market until they can validate it. For me it looks like a question of time before validation.
(https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-test-validation-approved-products/medical-devices-regulations-2002-protocol) Yes there are exception but the best one is Abbott with 5 the rest ist in average from 2.X most have only one.
If you are the government and want to force some normes in a so short time then for me you try to take one of each company (that you consider ok) then try to focus on the one that (please insert your ideas I have a fews but I will exclude them. Let say the one you think it is the best). that maybe explain the "temporary" list. They don't have the time to validate it that is why they are autorise it for the moment until validation (that should appear before february at least).
So what is happening to a company that have 11 products. hmm you will do your best and give a least the 1 you need but the rest need to wait.
For me this is not a question of validation failed or will failed but only "we never think that so many validation come so give us time".
So no matter how we see the problem, because we have soo many product, the chance we get a RNS that telling us that a part of our product will not be validated was extremely high or?
That the reason why I think in this case the good work of novacyt that developes a lot of product plays again it.
I think the problem will be fixed soon but the SP take a new "negative" info.
:D oh yes that was overreacting. I strongly suppose that shorter use the opportunity for this (on the blue bird I see a looot of people I had never seen before only reporting this RNS (that is not really bad and can be interpreted positively as "we are able to continue with a small desadvantage of max 3m depending on what appears in the next days" and we lost until 7% today :D. This is ridiculous.
(this is not a buy or sell advice)
Hmm I will suppose a result higher than £100m because they hide a lot of stuff like to make a surprise And trigger a big moVe to restablish the SP.
(This is only a dreamer hope (don't sell or buy on that :D ) )
Hmm I will suppose a result higher than £100m because they hide a lot of stuff like to make a surprise end trigger a big more to restablish the SP.
(This is only a dreamer hope (don't sell or buy on that :D ) )
For me if it go to 4 it could easy go upper. My reasoning is : only a good news will push the SP up.
We get good news and some "bad" (I exclude DHSC :D this is a known news for long time) (for me a lft test delaying is not the end of the world (the market as a lot of this and the price are doing down so the competition is more difficult but I am pretty sure they work on something else, writing loss down for the protocol because of some norms that require it is not a bad news, it is the procedure. Ok the stock is a big issue but let see where the conflict is going ) but nothing appear. A simple AGE shifting brought the SP from 3.4 to 2.5.
The markt want a "good" news. So good that the trend will change and the SP explode. So DHSC resolution (in our advantage), Q3 (with better result as expected (I forget the expected value), a big contract or a plan for the future with "action that start direct now" :D.
Based on https://twitter.com/fjc_das/status/1453950001428647942 , we can understand why they don't want to communicate. For me they tell us what they need "no news is good news" we cannot say more let us alone you will be updated when we will be able to deliver some info without any risk.
Ok :D H1 hurts because between a nice positive value we got at least a negtive value but I will strongly suppose that there are going well (otherwise they would already have communicated it (like DHSC :). To give bad news they have become the bests.)
We constate that they are spreaded up everywhere. They try to rich a lot regions simultanuously and a lot of sectors. They didn't deliver anything really interesting since months even if they could have done it for the AGE to encourage people to vote but nothing. We find a looot of info that have never been communicated, why?. All this clues look really strange like preparing the field for a big battle.
My opinion is that they will start with DHSC to say : no worry the big thread is gone, then present the news projects, they give a estimation of revenu for this year then the next year and after show what they prepared for the comming years.
Ps: it is only my theory don't buy or sell based on it. (let me alone :D with our decisions)