Member Info for AB124

Well, EE was the propagator of the completely untrue story that LD is selling shares to take up options before.

Let's all hope that the latest source of information is much less wrong.

As to someone where ,

" The share price fall was triggered mostly by a single significant holder who had a very pressing, urgent need to raise cash".

I wonder why they needed to raise Cash? Perhaps to turn some of their dwindling investment in Scancell into something that might hold it's value better in the short term.

Any significant holder who doesn't keep a reserve of cash (or near cash) investments for such unforseen eventualities (and don't forget this was a "Significant holder" presumably doesn't give a monkeys about the value of the Company.

Yes, I'd interpret the significant holder's mad rush to sell shares to raise cash more of someone who simply didn't want Scancell shares so he sold in a rush and trashed the SP. Massively helpful.

That's all we need holders like that. Hope he doesn't need cash again any time soon.

Fortunately EE has me on Filter so he won't see my view on his attempt to "explain" the recent share weakness (much as his earlier failed (and untrue) "reason").

AIMO

Havealot

I think your comments are logical and probably have a deal of truth in them. What's quite interesting is that you've hit on the two points that would make sense to a fickle investor base. Not only that but the Company's own information pieces implied a longer wait than many expected for information as well as their own highlighting of Fundraising in the followup.

Your indication that the global Finance climate has changed more than somewhat with the end of (Very) cheap money and the associated tightening of hoops through which borrowers need to jump has only served to focus on the near /medium term future for Bios generally and particularly cash hungry ones.

Thanks for your input on this.

AIMO

BOJO

Appreciate your response.

I think I begin to understand your point that the SP is only affected by what's released by Scancell most recently (I hope I'm not misrepresenting you).

If that's the case (and I do have some sympathy with that view) , it seems to me that we have to wait for the Company to lift radio silence - or whatever phrase we feel best explains the BOD's apparent determination to keep its shareholders firmly in the dark.

Perhaps it's the regularity of posters retrieving old news to "Talk up" Scancell that made me think that many thought that such a course of action would help the SP level.

Clearly I was wrong in this as the idea that the last news from the company itself is likely to be the only driver for the SP and by extension any other attempts to do the same by non Scancell sources are futile.

That makes sense.

AIMO

WTP

It's not a new theory, it's been a basic concept in TA for a long time and anyone with a basic idea of TA will have been aware of it.

Most watching would say that it was a breakout Gap when it happened, but who thought the SP would be again (3 years later) within spitting distance of being filled?

I don't think anyone's saying it will definitely happen but given the SP's where it is today what's stopping it from happening?

So WTP, are you saying it won't happen or is it a bit of a knee jerk reaction to Barry's post?

Interested to hear.

AIMO

Yes, I noticed that but there's 200K + offered over below the market offer.

Makes you think doesn't it?

AIMO

Barry,

Yep, never thought we'd be seeing that level again, but you're quite right.

That'll be interesting..... decisions, decisions

AIMO

A good question,

"Why is the SP so weak?"

It joins all those other questions about Scancell which have been asked over the last few (Ten at least) years such as,

"Why doesn't the market understand Scancell"?

It's a tough one to answer, but I'm sure someone will try.

Scancell has been bedevilled by a share price that never seems to reflect the promise.

Who's right?

The market or LTHs?

I don't know but equally I've never seen a convincing answer.

The base from which any discussion on the matter MUST start from is,

"Why we are at 10p after all this time?"

Wish I knew.

AIMO

Don't think Director buys have ever been a major feature of Scancell's history. A bit like hen's teeth.

AIMO

TF

My main point about coincidence was in 2022 rather than 2012.

In 2012 the SP was being driven by unproven and a much shorter life expectancy for Scancell. There was a predefined endpoint (a sale of the Company at the end of Phase 2 Trial). As we all know that changed in 2012.

Perhaps I was not making myself clear but the Coincidence I was asking about was that of the two spikes in late 2022. If not "News driven what caused them (to bring the SP to the dizzying height of 28p or so) , and if it was news was it Scancell initiated News?

Remember the SP had been held between around 12 and 17 for a great deal of that year.

Hence the spikes could reasonably be attributed to the IMO "leaked" news.

I am writing this simply to avoid any confusion in my reasoning.

Hope it clarifies my position in this matter.

I not expecting to say any more on this subject.

AIMO

TF

From the posts on the BB the information was disseminated over Social Media platforms reaching a much wider audience than LSE etc could hope to have.

I think you might underestimate the spread of information and the effect it could have.

If the BBs are insulated from the market how do you explain the price movements in SCLP back in 2012?

There are a great many more potential investors reading social media groups than I'm sure ever was the case ten or eleven years ago.

I would say underestimate the power of Social Media at your peril.

In case I am completey wrong how would you explain the spikes comviently occurring around the time of the "News " liberated from the MM group? Bit of a coincidence wasn't it?

AIMO

Douve

Thanks for your observations. I was trying to put over the idea that had the Patient details never been made available the chances the spikes towards the end of last year might never have happened with the effect that the fall from 28 to 9p (a massive decline) might only have been a reduction from 17p or so (much less dramatic). I do understand your contra view and as the "leak" did occur it can't be undone whatever view we take.

For me the steady decline since mid January is a massive disappointment but it's happened so there it is.

It was good to see your view and thanks for putting it in a non combative way.

That approach is much appreciated and goes to show that differing viewpoints can be aired and debated without rancour.

I do agree that recent news releases have been not what I'd like to have seen and I'm record for saying that the followup to the latest RNS was (IMO) unfortunate to say the least.

But apart from all the rights and wrongs maybe things will improve over time. I remain of the opinion that a split of LD's two responsibilities might be beneficial to all interested parties.

We can only wait and see what transpires.

AIMO

ATB

Crumbs, re Clatterbridge that was months after the time when Scancell had to acknowledge the details of one person's response. I wonder whether LD was happy that that information was being bandied around days after the results were given to the patient?

That was my point really. This BB (myself included) have questioned whether LD has enough time to cover both CSO and CEO. What we might do is to try and consider what she might think of some of the things that have been posted here (even if she knows).

Maybe a better title might have been, He who is without sin cast the first stone ?

I'm trying to make the point that none of us really have any idea what the pressures on LD actually are.

Maybe some of the actions and comments from here haven't been helpful.

AIMO

May I respectfully suggest that LD has never been one to shout that "It Works" until she has seen sufficient evidence that it actually does.

So how helpful actually was all that stuff poached from the Website that was reserved for people suffering from Cancer?

Was the company almost obliged to report the fact that one patient had responded well?

Does anyone think that the ever cautious Scancell would have reported that?

Would the spike at the end of November last year ever have happened without all the (Non Scancell created) hype on the BBs?

I very much doubt it.

If that hadn't happened we might all be sitting here thinking not much has happened but the reason is we have to wait patiently for results from the trials, which will be released IDC.

Sadly what actually happened was that a BB created a completely unsupportable idea that one responder would mean loads of others (if not all patients) would show similar results.

That meant that some greedy and IMO unthinking Posters and shareholders started writing to all manner of organs to say how brilliantly Scancell 's trial is going.

We might even all share the idea to one extent or another that LD might be overstretched in the combined posts she holds in the company. I think we are (myself included) being rather highhanded in levelling criticism of her when I wonder what she thinks about the conduct of this (and other) BBs in trumpeting the results of one patient when the chances are she (LD) would never have claimed anything like the success which was being pushed around by lay posters who frankly have no clue as to the actuality of the likely outcome of any trial by Scancell?

I suspect all that "clever sleuthing" was deeply damaging, and had the information been left to the individuals who had very good reason to discussing it on their own private BB (by implication on moral grounds not by law) the spike to 28p via earlier 20.5p and 25.375p levels would probably never have happened (since they were based on one patient's responses).

I wonder what LD thinks of our bb's "help" on that matter, since those results which should never have been publicised were instrumental in having investors look at the 44% figure announced in the latest RNS as being not good. I bet that that figure if put out without the "release" of the partial responder in November and December last year would possibly have been seen as a positive rather than negative result.

As to those who were "sucked in" to buying just before Christmas at 28p ish not only did they increase their averages (one who can no longer claim his below 12p average) but also set themselves up for the subsequent drop to today's less than "derisory" price (as described at a higher level by one of our major IIs). Heaven knows what colourful language would be used now.

I'd not considered what LD might think of us (collective responsibility) for putting that patients' results out into the mainstream.

Still a good idea? Was it?

AIMO

Bojo

Thanks for your observations.

ATB

But Bobbust,

It's the fact that EXPECTATIONS were raised to such a pitch that has been hawked around here since 2012 (When Moditope was first announced).

The disappointment did not come from expectations for Trish, it came from an ibuilt "Truism" that Modi was going to be the only required panacea. That has seemingly not been the case and so the deflationary effect of that fact on the SP has been a major factor. It reduces (to some degree) the anticipated value of the Platform, but more importantly means that the timescale for results likely has also moved further away.

AIMO

Cont'd

Is it because investors are feeling the (economic) pinch and can't afford to risk money on a speccy investment?

There’s a load more questions like that and trying to find some more might lead to an understanding of why we’re where we are now.

Finding answers is more difficult.

Here’s an idea. If you’re a mega (stale) Bull of Scancell try being honest with yourself and ask yourself this question.

Why have I always been convinced of Scancell’s superiority in the Bio sector and why hasn’t it come true after ten years? Is it any one of the questions in the list above or perhaps a combination of factors?

If you can be truly honest it might help.

Scancell’s success is not guaranteed whatever some might say. I remember reading somewhere that even the best performing products can fail at the last stage of a stage 3 trial. It’s scarily not that uncommon.

So a combination of factors have combined to put Scancell where it is today. Some need addressing others cannot be covered by the BOD (or for that matter experienced and respected posters on BBs).

I think the only thing to do now is to address one’s fears and make a decision as to what you personally want. For some, sleeping at night might be better than waking every morning and praying for the RNS that just doesn’t arrive.

For others they’ll pile in and buy more … and more…. And so on. One day they might be staggeringly rich, but there’s always a chance they won’t.

Sorry but that’s the truth of the matter. Experts aren’t always right… but sometimes they might strike lucky. They’ve been wrong for ten years…. But it might change, mightn’t it?

Basically, keeping one’s financial exposure to a level of personal comfort is probably the best policy. As the Betting Companies say, “Keep it fun”

I still enjoy seeing what’s happened to the SP here, I hope everyone does. It’s a lucky person who can say that.

Finally I don’t think that “Lindy is a problem”. I think having two Senior Company Posts isn’t helpful to her.

First off I do believe (as I've said many times before) that it is not healthy to have the originator of the Scientific side of the business (the entire IP) being appointed the CEO of the Company as well as CSO. Maybe the major IIs here thought it might work in the short term (note the original redemption date of the CLNs - subsequently extended to 2025). There's simply too few hours in the day for such a joint appointment to be practical in the long term (quite apart from sensible).

Since nobody on this BB (or presumably any other BB) actually KNOWS anything about the inner workings of Scancell and the Interactions of the BOD it is completely futile to try and guess.

There have recently been sage comments about Options and who's doing what in the BOD but once again nobody actually KNOWS.

A number of posters here have been captains of industry and they have produced even deeper analyses of the inner workings and relationships of the BOD over the years but none of them have ever been proved correct.

Then we arrive at the actual Business of Scancell.

Given that over the last ten years the various BBs have been treated to knowledgeable posters who have prophesied the path of the R&D at Scancell (and not only that) the prophesies of Scancell's future share price. Again none have been in any way accurate. Why because once again nobody KNOWS.

Finally we arrive with the SP languishing at a little over 10p. Isn't it strange how we're back here yet according to quite a few posters the SP should be way up on this level. There are many who have been calling the RNS which will propel the SP into the stratosphere. That RNS is always going to be tomorrow, or Tuesday or all manner of ideas as to when it will fall. Apart from a few limited jumps the SP has always retraced to its pre call level (or lower). In recent history 28p has been a good sell level. BTW this is an observation not a claim for having sold every time the SP achieved that sort of level so please (and you know who I mean) no "witty comments" about always being right. I haven't.

So why have the callers of the SP taking off been wrong? Because even though they seem to have acquired some sort of authoritative position on the various BBs they don't KNOW.

Nobody (apart from those at a certain level in Scancell have a clue.

That said why are people not understanding why we're at 10p?

Is it because LD is under stress with too much to do?

Is it because the timelines have shifted further away again?

Is it because people worry about how much will need to be raised post early 2024?

Is it because the products are seemingly not proving quite as spectacular as some have claimed?

Is it because the market's fed up with waiting?

Is it because of Covid (not Covidity) having been a distraction?

Is it because the market's too stupid to understand Scancell's approach to Cancer prevention/cure?

Is it because investors tire of holding shares that don't move up?

Is it because investors are feelin

Probably the uncrossing trade at 10.5p @ 16.35

Rich,

Apart from early this morning, to mop up the punters, the Market's been offered in good size all day. Another day of 200K+ on auto.

As you rightly say the seller(s) held off first thing and then came back in at the higher levels.

Well, tomorrow's another day.

AIMO

EE

There is another way to look at the non exercise and extension of the Options.

Maybe There's an idea that by extending the facility a message that Scancell intends to be around for the next few years with LD carrying on. Not only that any exercise of options at this stage would suggest that a reward was being given against the somewhat dire Share Price performance.

I'm not saying that that's the case but it is rather more positive (both for LD's reputation) as well as the BOD making a point that it's also, "Jam tomorrow" for the CEO.

Now where have I heard that phrase before?

You must admit it's a possibility.

AIMO