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Looks like anything from 200 to 900 tonnes looking at a few manufacturers
I only see up to 50% at BMN choice if BMN decide to redeem the CLN payment early. When you read all the conditions reads as though it gves both sides a options and conditions, most likely put in as neither party had enough certainity over the following 2 years of trading.
From the RNS:
Early redemption of the Loan Notes at the election of Bushveld Minerals, subject to the condition that the holder will have an option of converting up to 50% of the early redemption amounts into Bushveld Minerals shares on the same terms set out above;
Bummered, what are your thoughts that Duferco may wish to stake build in the background or that there is some sort of collusion to get Duferco a cheaper price? I tend to never rule out anything but at this point I cannot see how one investor selling a stake deliberately at a loss so that another could potentially achieve more shares through their CLN notes would be a good option.
yes of course the 7th Nov D'oh, thanks for pointing that out.
Will be interesting to monitor the SP from Monday 26th October.
For 1 BMN would have to know with some certainty that Duferco actually want to convert some or all CLN's.
Then of course we would want BMN to get the best price from SG or the management would face further scrutiny from out good selves.
I have considered similar scenario's where if BMN started buy shares on the open market from early October they would push the SP up raising the value of the WVAP 10 days prior to 22nd October and reducing dilution of shares. But again if Duferco then just said 'Cash please' would management have to pay out the $11.3m without having to quickly sell the shares again.
I would be pleased if Duferco did take shares as it would leave BMN with a bigger pot for capital expenditure and show the market that Duferco have confidence that the SP is way undervalued.
There is a way for any shares going to Duferco to be reduced and that is if BMN settle the payment prior to the due date with cash. Duferco would still be entitled to take up to 50% in shares but that would limit their % ownership and dilution.
I would expect BMN management to be running scenario's on the best outcome for the business and shareholder, they have been good at this in the past.
How do you get 44m shares?
to add detail
22nd October was the original agreement, if converted there would be a 5% discount to the preceeding 10 day WVAP.
Been tracking GGP as used to trade last trade a couple of years ago 2k at .55 sold at .8 happy with return over 3 weeks but look if I’d left it, the proceeds went 2k then went in here by the way at a higher price. It’s been interesting to note director sales over there at 14p it still rose but says to me even the directors think it’s over valued. Pleased for those doing well over there but would be cautious of investing now.
Back on topic come BMN let’s have a blue day
If you believe in a company strategy and management then a raise should be looked at as a positive. As the result would be, raise funds which will attract a % ROE above the amount being raised for 'X' years to come adding business value.
The issue I have seen is many posters on AIM use it as a negative scaremongering term to drive prices lower and the companies they invest in use a raise to fund Opex costs including director salaries while continuing to promise everything but producing nothing. Added to that a raise is usually at a high discount where PI's are excluded and any future rises are sold into until the overhang has been eroded.
Would I be concerned here?
No, the days of the chop shop and death spiral financing are well behind us in my view, LTH's have lived through a few questionable deals in the past here but I fully believe they were needed at the time to capitalise on deals being put together which may have otherwise resulted in a opportunity lost.
Not only the momentum building but also the balance sheet value under the leasing model.
Worth remembering if we liken the SP to being in the doldrums, then most would associate the term with periods of calm it is actually a place of extremes. That said when the volatility comes the doldrums could take us to a new SP high. I would happily be in the doldrums bouncing around over a pound.
Also in all the years of being on this BB, I don’t think I have ever seen a true Ramper, a few tongue in cheek comments maybe, but FFS the LTH’s here even have a code on what constitutes a BOOM and its appropriate usage. So certainly for this BB if you see the term Ramper you should read it as Researcher.
Those were the days when it seemed everyone was buying 80085, sometimes I would buy 2 at once to make a pair. It was also a way to showing 2 fingers to furry creatures who visited the board.
I think you misunderstood it was ‘Just Wait’ for results not Justin Waite.
LOL
Continue that analogy and it should lead to a new love interest, let’s call her BE and great EX
2 market weeks like today and the cumulative rise would put us back at 32p, extend that out to a working market month and that turns to 96p.
That would be nice for starters.
Just glad to see a blue day
Many thanks for the feedback.
BTW I am not concerned as I think when the deal was done if Duferco really wanted to keep in the SA market they could gone for a different structure to the deal, maybe a merger with Bushveld as the lead but I doubt that would have been much of an option for Fortune.
I also wondered if anyone remembered the background for Duferco selling in the firstplace.
Keep the faith everyone
Apologies if I have missed a previous discussion thread on this, if so please point me in that direction
Does anyone else have thoughts on whether Duferco would be likely to exercise their option to take $11.5m dollars of shares on the first anniversary of the loan completion at the 5% discount to the previous 10 day VWAP.
It has been at the back of my mind for a while during these ridiculously low prices and I keep dismissing it on the basis that the SP will be far higher than this by November but it would certainly provide Duferco with a decent percentage of Bushveld.
I know I don’t post much anymore but still hold and still buying when I can. The LTH’s here know I was one of the original investors due to my holding in Obtala, which when they sold created the Oct ’13 BMN buying opportunity. Dxgraf brought in shortly afterwards on my recommendation and for years since then I along with the others who invest with us have debated the great unfolding Bushveld story. Of course of you are all entitled to your own opinions and I would admit on occasions Dx and I agree to disagree about some of the RNS content released but for what tis worth I can assure you his intension is to see bushveld flourish.
Keep safe all.
Re the trolls - as some schools are back I guess they might not be around until after 3pm and only then if they have kept their room tidy.
Keep look for the fun in life.