Member Info for NasiRul

Dyani have been awarded monthly allocation of shares in £20k & £25k lots since Nov 16. Therefore they can sell on the 6 month anniversary of each monthly lot... It seems they aim to sell on each peak of the SP which happens to occur regularly every 3 to 4 months.

But this is a minor circumstance in consideration to the huge developments in Bangladesh. These selling patterns are no more than a means to an end in order to create the right negotiating vehicle for the acceptance of the Scheme of Development. It enables the deal with the Chinese to progress; and a way for GCM to finance these crucial partnerships. Shareholders should welcome them as a short term requirement in order to expedite the outcome that will deliver a share price that will exceed several £'s .

£266k value sell represents 12 mnths of retainer fees for Dyani which would be paid to them in shares.
Trace the SP spikes . All at the same time as RNS, all at the same time Dyani need to release shares.

So much uninformed guesswork on this site.

Focus on what is happening in Bangladesh rather than conspiracy theories about the sp. Of course the sp is raised in order for Dyani to sell. .. and the PI's ended up funding it .
But this is irrelevant if you look holistically at the situation.

The influence on the Power and Energy Division advisers is the key. Dinajpur & Dhaka rife with activity regarding the Chinese involvement in the power generation plans. The right pressure, on the right people is having a significant effect. The local Dinajpur business and educational communities are desperate now for this to happen. This was stage 1 for GCM & the Chinese. It appears to now be transcending to more senior discussions at the right advisory levels.

lots of guesswork on this board from people just trying to will the sp up or down.

The latest spike is one of several similar patterns during the past 3 years. The reason. Tang is heavily influenced by his main investors, primarily Kilkenny in the early days, and now Dyani. When they need to shed shares, the only way for them to do it at a price that gives them value is to stimulate PI interest. The way to do this is is by releasing a positive RNS, which are well timed and truthful.
This sends the masses scurrying for stock in the hope of the multi % gains. - Meanwhile, those bigger investors release the shares and enjoy the additional equity gained though the inflated sp. - As those shares are sold then the SP drops like a stone back to parity.
Thats it . Nothing more . Nothing less. The release of shares by Dyani is not due to them believing the deal is poor or not happening, but for them to realise some capital for the work they have done and to keep their share holding at a reasonable level. - They will hold plenty enough to make multi millions from the eventual outcome.

The most important aspect to this share price is locked in the discussions between PowerChina,GCM & the advisors from the AL Power & Energy Division. It is my guess that these are now taking place, as activity in Dinajpur in relation to news items, local government profile raising on the matter and delegate visits to Dhaka for a variety of proposal presentations on infrastructure change & investment is far too frequent and high profile now.

The key is however still firmly held by the Head of the Energy & Power Division, who's acknowledgement of the Scheme of Development , and in its consideration, is totally reliant on how much she and her close ministers benefit from it. - Not of course through bribes, but in those 'legal' benefits such as contract awards and similar lines of indirect income.
In my view, this is actually extremely close.

I do not fully understand why so many on here feel that the result of the Elections matter so much in respect of the Scheme of Development being accepted by the GoB. Hasina has been in power for 9 years and not even raised her eyebrows in recognition of GCM.
As the poster Phulbari has noted, the AL were always going to win,.. there is no viable opposition as the AL party and their influence over the police and military ensured the vote was weighted completely towards them. No-one else stood a chance in this election. It was so obvious and the people knew it... but those who stood up and protested were dealt with in the usual way in Bangladesh., hence 17 deaths.

Im surprised the hidden activists on this board haven't tried to blame this on a UK business as well !

The whole issue regarding the acceptance of the SoD is not reliant on which party is in power, but in who benefits from it. Full stop !
The importance of the Bara revelations cannot be stressed enough .. Someone did this in order to blow a long standing major fraud in which many people in government were benefiting. Coal, that was NEVER extracted was invoiced to the government and payments made to a Government appointed company, ( also Chinese managed). Therefore, the likely recipients of years and years of payments are those making the decisions about who gets to mine the coal ! - But as I've noted earlier..... someone found a way to blow this apart. The question is why now ?

And thats where you guys investing in GCM should be focused on.

The Chinese players now involved in this make the GoB look like a group of naughty school children and are calling the shots, as they have done with so many major investments in Bangladesh.

Hasina isnt really that important; BUT how her advisers are influenced and directed is ! This is where Tang has been magnificent in his political landscaping over the past few years. And as for someones comments on this board about the potential of the Chinese dropping this investment due to the perceived hassle... forget it . The return on the overall investment is far greater than anything else the Chinese will be involved with in Bangladesh. All other projects involve high capital investment with tight margins.. although large values. The coal mine offers HUGE margins on MASSIVE volume turnover ( in the billions) ... the large capital investment required will still be minimal compared to the margin return. There is no way the Chinese are walking away from this, especially when so many Chinese coal mines are being restricted in China.
This is a goer.

TDipper.
Appreciate the words. .. and the fact you find my input useful means it is not wasted time .

I think it is also significant that Datuk Michael Tang did not attend today. It must have been a particularly important engagement in order to miss the annual meeting of his Company.

Profit... you claim to have knowledge of the area, but you clearly do not have a clue what you are talking about.

The incident at Phulbari in 2006 was caused by 2 key things coming together. The first was a poorly organised and ill disciplined Bangladeshi task force who were sent to the Region to support the similarly ill equipped and under resourced police. The second was an unruly mob of hired activists shipped in from outside Phulbari, who had spent several days spreading unsubstantiated lies about the mine in order to recruit local youths who were given the chance to unleash their frustrations at the authorities.
These frustrations were caused by the poverty in which the Government and those activists currently wish to keep them in ! - and all of this is linked to the corruption proven to be in place concerning the fraudulent coal sales at Bara and in the bribes from the Indian dirty coal importers.

Both these factors came together in 2006 and ended in the only way the organisers of the riot wanted it to... a big statement of blame they could associate to Asia Energy. The harming of innocent locals.
Well, the truth of the matter is that these riots were caused by people acting in an illegal manner, damaging property and making threats of violence to Asia Energy employees. - This was not a peaceful event. The hired mobsters stirred up hate and a large number of the people attending were happy to be part of it. - and like today, most of them did not have a clue what they were there for... but it was a chance to be noticed, be somebody, be centre of attention and mindlessly rise up against the authorities.
As a result, the poorly trained task force members, lost control and panicked by firing into the crowd . The 3 people who died were not sacrificed. This is the talk of those organisers who wanted to create martyrs. These were innocent men who did not know why they were there or what they were doing it all for.
It was a shocking mishap... but certainly not a sacrifice. These 3 guys did not volunteer to die, nor did they go there ever believing they were in danger.

The fault lies with the organisers of the mob, and the poorly trained Bangladeshi authorities. Not GCM or Asia Energy. - The Company has legally bought a licence in good faith and are looking to enhance the prosperity of the majority of people in the area. - There is nothing wrong with this. They have not done anything illegally nor have they lied or misled anyone.
The only people involved in lies, deceit and untruths are those profiting by the Bara situation and the activists jumping on a bandwagon of protest relating to an area they have even been to before.

What rubbish !
So many inaccurate items of guesswork in this post.
Where are these valuable areas of farmland and jungle ? - Jungle ? - There are some sparse trees in Phulbari , but Jungle. Such nonsense.
The farmland is not valuable. it is poorly maintained, largely unused expanses of grassland with low agricultural production per sq km. And whilst it may be the main source of income for many,.. it is still low cost, low return.
And there is certainly no shortage of land. . There are hundreds of sq km of unused expanses of it, on which many new houses and businesses could be built at a safe distance from the mine area.

Flooding occurs all over the sub-continent. This is due to the natural monsoon region along with the low lying flatlands & deltas. Oh ,yes ; and the absence of trees, that would ( if they were there ), produce jungles.

finally , there is no proven evidence that the mine would cause environmental disasters in the area. There are uneducated and unsubstantiated claims designed to create sensationalist reactions from those who oppose the mine.
But the only neutral assessments of the effects of the mine, have been produced by professional engineering companies who specialise in such surveys, and were commissioned by GCM. These are detailed comprehensively in the Scheme of Development.
These clearly define the effects... along with all protective measures to ensure no problems arise from the mine development, and are also laid out in the Scheme.

It may be a good idea for you to educate your self in such matters before continuing to embarrass yourself so publicly on this discussion forum. You really would find this helpful in your understanding of reality, as opposed to made up stories.

I do fear however, that my judgement may well be called into question for once again lowering myself to respond.

but we are not speaking in German swiss are we ! nor are we speaking about just a selected part of the name,
The point is.. Hassina is spelt either way locally. In Bangladesh. Not Switzerland or Germany.

You can make that argument for any word in any language, Im sure many parts of many innocent English words become bad in a number of translations. A very silly point.
Dont worry about it. It was my poor judgement to reply to the original post. I did not realise anyone would be so affected by it. My apologies for your distress.

how you translate , or what publications you read.
Hasina is correct, but Hassina widely used.

http://narinjara.com/bangladesh-celebrates-sea-victory-over-burma/sheikh-hassina/

Focus is much better placed on understanding the position of things, than wasting energy on wanting to appear self righteous about other people's flaws. Must ask what motivates someone to be so critical about such a microscopic issue.
Join the big picture, and see the possibilities.

The Election is a farce. It is a disgrace how the world stands back and allows this dictator to continue to eradicate her opposition. There are 300 first past the post seats, of which it is right that the AL hold 234, but they do actually have 275 members due to the additional 50 women member seats.

There is no real opposition in Bangladesh. The moment anyone raises their hand to present an alternative to the AL, they are placed under arrest for some fabricated charge. The current opposition is the Jatiya Party, who are conservative in their stance and pose no real threat due to having several AL cabinet ministers and relatives of them in their membership !

The BNP have no real presence and have been quashed by Hassina. Prior to 2014 elections , all of the members were arrested and held until the elections were over. Additionally there was a blackout on all BNP activity and given no access to pre-election publicity. This all due to pre-election polls indicating that they would win the vote , especially after trouncing the AL in the local council elections held mid term.

I am by no means pro-party for either, but the sheer inequality & corruption by this current government in country is disgraceful. This is why the importance of the Chinese intervention with GCM cannot be over-stated. This Government only act when either having a massive financial benefit to themselves or their key members, or through unavoidable political pressure created by influences far more powerful than themselves, i.e the Chinese.
The AL 'winning' the election this month, is a 100% certainty.

Hassina being advised to consider GCM's scheme of development is not dependant on anything other than how the pressure of the Chinese is applied, and in how her advisors push the agenda.
There does seem to be a new impetus locally in Dinajpur to see the development go ahead,
The election is not the crucial point here, it is the Chinese influence on the GoB; and my understanding is, that there is a very large cat about to be let out of a much too small bag !

the Awami League's electoral candidate convinces his colleagues in the Power & Energy ministry to 'advise' Hassina that there is a substantial benefit to the Party in acknowledging the Scheme of Development from GCM and then in giving it their seal of approval. The former is the most important event. .. the latter will be a simple negotiation about how the wealth is created for the AL members; but by this time the Chinese will have taken over and so will enforce their influence on a wider political scale to the GoB.

The great thing from my understanding is that Khalid Mahmud Chowdhury is a modernist politician, despite being in power for the AL in Dinajpur since 2009. He has overseen numerous development programs, is keen on infrastructure improvements and has been a strong believer in utilising the advancement of electricity production in the Region. He is in a strong seat for the AL party and was promoted to Organizational Secretary in the party council. He is a man of influence and appears to have been a regular point of contact for GCM's in country representatives, especially Anwar Islam.
It is from here upwards that the pressure will be applied in order to connect meaningfully with Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, who is the key to persuading Hassina that the S.O.D should be considered. Having been educated in Leeds , he has an affinity with UK business but he is very much a traditionalist; although was supportive of the Chinese investing in the Bara mine.
These are the key links to the current chain... as well as the direct Power Ministry approaches being made by the Chinese through GCM.
There are lots of reasons to be very positive about this, as I do believe great progress has been made locally and support for the mine far outweighs the protesters. The power and influence of the Chinese cannot be underestimated. They have far more involvement with other support in Bangladesh on a political and economic scale than anyone really understands, and this continuous avoidance of the Phulbari project will not be looked upon favourably by them. This may have already been in play and acknowledged , hence GCM's confidence of a 31 December result.

Fusion... do you know how many seats out of the entire country that the Dinajpur Region contributes to for the electoral vote in Bangladesh ? Its 6 out of the 300 first past the post seats ( 350, inc the overall representation). - And dont be blinded by the minority of people opposing the mine and subsequent huge business and wealth opportunities of the development. So out of the 6 seats, there is a small likelihood of anyone voting anything other than AL . .. The AL also have a current holding of 275 seats.. So can afford to lose 6 seats, if this was the case.
The rest of the country doesnt really care; as they are more interested in their own well being and fortunes of favour. The minority protest groups make more noise than the whole of the country put together; nobody protests about being content do they ?
So this perception of, " the GoB wont budge due to upsetting the electorate", is total rubbish.
The GoB wont move on this because there is nothing financially tempting enough to grab their attention. They will have known, and possibly in my opinion, been part of the payments for non-mined coal in Bara. This coal was never stolen - it had nowhere to go, and no means to move it .. it was just never mined. Someone made a huge amount of money from invisible sales. And a significant amount of this probably ended up back from where the cheques were signed. - with someone in the GoB. Therefore, Phulbari has been pushed away under the guise of the protests.

But, these Chinese companies, backed by the Chinese Government, will have much more influence and persuasion than anyone else.
There are some very excited people in Dinajpur Region at the moment, as they do see realistic hopes of prosperity coming to the Region.

No surprise that this is the announcement Tang wanted to make prior to the AGM.
PowerChina are well known to him and have undertaken big projects in Malaysia with associates of Tang. They are a relentless influence on developing country governments', and have a track record of securing contracts in difficult environments.
It is known that they have already been in country to the Region and made great progress with local committees and AL representatives.
These references are being taken higher to Power ministry influences and will result in the long awaited acceptance from the state of the need to review, and sanction, the scheme of development.

Good evening Sansavatar
I hope to be balanced about the political situation in Bangladesh, and whilst I am very keen to see the Phulbari mine developed, my optimism is based only on the fact that there is much in the way of new buildings and businesses in central belt and how a growing number of people in other areas of the Country wish to see it replicated in their own Regions. This however is not directly about how soon the Power & Energy Division will sanction GCM's scheme.
I am merely trying to add to the discussion about the hurdles the Company faces, and the possible ways in which they can be jumped.

But my point is that times are actually changing in these lesser known places, and where before people wanted to keep traditions and old ways of living, the growing reach of media and communications means that the new generations are seeing what the world can offer them, and that it is a possibility for them if they are allowed to develop the resources they have local to them. This is where Gary Lye & the small GCM team from the office in Phulbari is making progress. By showing the people the value of they have and how it can be utilised.

These are not just nice sentiments and words, .. these are just facts. I make no promise or prediction on the outcome as I know how the powers that be there will work. How these powers benefit will help determine the course of the scheme. - As usual in Bangladesh, the people will be the second consideration.

Perhaps. But the share price is far too influenced by the small transactions of departing investors whose patience has been tested.

August was never going to see news from GCM arrive. - Gary Lye fully understands the significance of this and advises the Company well on how to navigate it.
September may hold something different, especially with the growing change in sentiment in many of the advisory committees on how Bangladesh enhances its own economic development,
e.g The CPD led by Dr Fahmida Khatun, who are constantly reviewing how Bangladesh's macroeconomic development can be balanced against its environmental policy. Within this group, there is a growing acceptance of how utilisation of resources within country outweighs the alternative of costly and unworkable imports.

Its not the answer by any means. But there is a growing change in sentiment in Bangladesh that foreign investment and know how is needed to build the highways, ports and transport links as well as a slow acceptance that the old ways of living need to change if the growing population wants to live in the modern world and have the things it sees in its neighbours in India. - None of this will happen without power, and the AL are running out of options to deliver it.

WHYAST - So Bangladesh is pretty much like America is now then !

Yes Phulbari, you are now acknowledging there is lots of activity when before you claim it had no buzz. Are you able to make your mind up with this or do you need more help with updating you on current affairs in Bangladesh.

I am not making anything sound simple, nor am I predicting positive developments with confidence. I am merely relaying the facts of what is happening in Dhaka today.

I trust you find this updated information helpful , and I wish you well in your investment choices.

I spend many times in Gulshan and development is still active, and by no means is the buzz gone. Cranes, new buildings and business activity determines this. Not the guesswork from someone who does not understand the meaning of what is being said.
And yes,........ Hassina will not give the mine the seal of approval despite knowing the benefits it will bring to the Region, if it means protection of others in power who are benefiting from the current situation.
Your final statement is actually close to the fact of how Bangladesh works.

The reference to brown envelopes is obviously written by you for effect and sensationalism, & to undermine my comments. However, the fact in the country is the same as noted. If someone creates a situation that gives greater benefits to the Government and their supporters financially ... then yes, this will be the Governments choice. Not by your theatre of brown envelopes, but by where contracts for materials is awarded, where jobs for relatives are available, where businesses for paymasters can flourish and lots of other indirect payment means.
You need to know the country now in order to comment accurately on it.

Phulbari.. I beg to disagree. This may have been sentiment from many years ago, but in the current political climate in Dhaka it is not the case Many other large industrial projects in and around Bangladesh have now been pushed through, despite previous campaigns by noisy protesters and negative media coverage.
The reason they are is due to the weight of financial benefit shifting from one place to another for those who control the corruption.
Hassina and the Awami League are no different to the other parties on the right who have governed previously. Decisions are not political, but financial. -- but hidden behind the convenient cloud of the protesters when convenient to do so... these are soon ignored and 'dealt with ' once the tide changes and the financial benefit is more favourable from the proposed project or development.

I think some people on this board have misunderstood how politics work in Bangladesh. Prof Anu is not the main reason the Scheme of Development for Phulbari has not been sanctioned, this is just not accurate. He is a low key, poorly supported campaigner whose comments and influence is close to minimal in respect of political votes for the awami League. - As previously noted, the Region contributes just 6 seats from 300+ for the election and the rest of Bangladesh electorate is just not influenced by a small rumble about some fields being dug up in the NW Regions.

The reason for the Government wanting to keep the status quo was actually spelled out in Anu's last reported comments in The Star.. it read;

"Coal from Barapukuria Coal Mining Company Limited was looted with the support of the government", said Prof Anu Muhammad

With Support of the Government ! - There lies the key message. Those within the political circles know the depth and heights of corruption in Dhaka, as well as its spider web into all the Regions. They know it goes on , but Hassina facilitates this way of doing things in order to maintain her power....
Therefore it is not the mining of the coal she is concerned about.. it is the fact that if she is seen to be clamping down in one place, then others with greater influence and power who are part of larger 'schemes' may then become edgy and less supportive of her.

Phulbari is such a small piece of Bangladesh politics that sanctioning the mine would not in any way jeopardise the elections for the AL because of the principal of digging up the coal... but the fact it is seen to perhaps take down one small area of corruption may be !

This is why the issue over who exactly opened the can with Bara is really important. If it was influenced by the Chinese then this is a massive positive sign for the future of GCM.