Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
On this BB there is a resemblance of a shout from the back seat "Are we there yet" . (Especially as final destination is not even clear)
It is astounding that some are trying to work out a math solution with so many unknowns, others even arriving to a definitive answer!
The SP is where it is exactly for this reason. The intrinsic value is in the future potential.
Investors do invest in companies with negative EPS, such as (IT start-ups). I am comfortable in the knowledge that none of the large holders (who hold 98.7m shares in the company) have sold up, indicated by lack of TR1 discloser. These guys are where they are because they have been making right investment choices, I share their confidence and to an extant, of the house broker.
I do keep a regular eye for any surprises/news, comfortable in the knowledge that barring any surprises the trajectory is upwards and on-wards with a good chance of an exponential rise at any time.
Bucolic - How would one reconcile the term LTHs and people invested in a slow burn company?
Poor reviews can be offset by positive anecdotal sales figures. New kid on the block is out selling the blue chips. Haleon would have considered this before taking on the US market. There is money to be made here, once financial feedback starts to filter through. My own assessment is that this will turn into a recreational product after the initial launches and further media coverage. However, Pricing and packaging will require to be revisited.
By bringing a giant like Haleon onboard, FUM have gained a guardian angle. If Haleon is going to fund complete US launch, it will protect it's interests, in patent infringes, copycat products, low takeover attempts.....However, this will have come at a price.
Regardless of the product success, the only thing PI,s should focus on is the cut FUM will receive. Some here may wish to consider managing their expectations.
The buy recommendations put out by business pundits and brokers would have considered this in their calculations, after all it is what they are employed to do. Clearly, the current company valuation falls well short of their analysis.
Some, including LTHs appear to have suddenly become inpatient. It may help to remember that this is a fledgling business struggling to bring it's ace product to the world market, it's not a one arm bandit waiting to drop a jackpot.
"Haleon is the consumer health colossus..."
Given Haleon's current portfolio and worldwide exposure, FUM could not have selected a better partner. On that note, based upon reaction to US market, I would not be at all surprised if Haleon was further considered for worldwide partnership. FUM have clearly shaken it's past ghosts.
Very encouraging, just can not see Haleon messing this one up.
The biggest take-away from the interview for me, was the confidence Barder showed regarding partnership selection/ negotiations, The rational in choosing Haleon, Clearly, the team was in control. Inspires confidence for future partnership deals. He also referenced the learning curve. Company's come a long way since previous debacles. All bodes well for conquering the world.
Selling out at this moment in time would be a little premature (IMO). Especially as business media such as IC etc, are 'big upping' it. FUM is making appearances in the main media too. Then there is an option of a buyout. The revenue figures or breakdown of the partnership deals remain unknown. Many here are deluding themselves by assuming 100% revenue for FUM and coming up with SP valuations. The size of revenue FUM will receive is yet unknown.
However, it should be clear that it will be larger than currently reflected in the SP today.
Surprisingly, the BoD have exceeded my expectations thus far and I have no reservations that they will continue to do so.
Not sure whether some on this (or other) BB,s fully understand the fundamental concept of investing.
"an initial upfront payment of $4 million;"
".....milestone payments totaling between $5 million and $45 million payable over the course of several years".
Realistically, Optimistically, £49 million revenue over several years, from biggest market region in the world.......and the unknown: Revenue from royalties......Keeps the dream alive.
That's the potential.
Partners do the heavy lifting and are remunerated appropriately with a significant slice of the pie.
Frustratingly, FUM is an AIM listed company. None of the economic rational applies here. The fund managers/pension accounts cannot invest in any company, unless it is FTSE 100 - 250 listed. Therefore, the road map for FUM is to increase its market cap to an extant to be included into FTSE market, so the city money starts to flow in. Which requires high-risk investors (such as LBO) to buy-in and pricipitate an increase in SP, hence market cap. I guess this will only happen when there is confidence in the perceived potential.
The sales figures and size of ED market is of little consequence to FUM. It all depends upon the revenue it receives ie the cut of the pie it receives, the deal it has cut for itself! All unknowns!
today's rsn content was poorly constructed (imo only). all that was required today was the name of the long awaited 'amazing' partner. the sp would have taken-off on just that news.
it is widely understood that company is not expected to release business sensitive information. however, releasing half-****ed, incomplete numbers, just went to further muddy the water.
i can see the us product and pricing to be totally different to eroxon. haleon plc will, independently have its own take on capturing the us market.
"futura will provide ongoing technical support...." only.
Buildworker - You have literally echoed my thoughts. I have long felt that the competition was always going to be the generics and therefore the Eroxon pricing should have reflected those parameters. Yes, OTC availability, efficacy levels, lack of significant side effects give Eroxon the edge, However, multiple use scenario and launching of a new product, should have formed part of the pricing equation. Pricing can always be reviewed when volumes materialize - supply/demand (depending upon who is in overall control of pricing)
We are where we are now. I am sure the US deal will address these issues.
Martin - There is no magic ingredient other than;
"..what makes Eroxon unique is the way these ingredients are combined, using a proprietary technology."
As we are debating, not the patent but an extension of it, suggests that this formulation is not only patent-able it has been successfully patented. FUM are confident of the gaining an extension.
The ingredients in Eroxon® gel — ethanol, propylene glycol, glycerine (also known as glycerol), carbomer and potassium hydroxide - have a long history of pharmaceutical and cosmetic use and a strong safety profile.
However, what makes Eroxon unique is the way these ingredients are combined, using a proprietary technology.
Fully Agree with Jet7 and martinelwick. FUM are showing lack of frontal lobe thinking.
FUM knowing the facts (that multiple usage bring on best results) should have designed a launch trial pack with free additional tubes. Positive results vs cost - Prudent marketing! Hopefully, this will be a learning curve for US launch.
Two articles published today (shares mag and hbw ) are very encouraging and should entice small PI,s.
IMO - Whilst US deals or sales figures are obviously key milestones, unless 3% plus investors show up the SP will fluctuate, aided and abetted by day traders. Unless people who are paid to research, analyse and invest show confidence and buy-in, the SP will continue to languish at these levels.
Some thoughts on SP stagnation.
When speculation morphs into reality, totally different indicators come into play. Tangible components appear, and to an extant, exact science can be applied to the existing parameters.
Many investors have become 'investor savvy' and no longer believe in future pie-in-sky valuations, mostly projected by (shifty) house brokers.
Frequently banded terms like 'tree shake going on', 'seller on the scene' 'price held back' on BB's are used to justify lack of expected SP progress. There will be SP movement when milestones are reached, however, there will only be one factor that will significantly drive the SP higher and keep it there.
The significant factor that matters is whether a large investment institution shows confidence in investing in Eroxon. They do their own due diligence and will only invest when they feel there is going to be a return on their investment. Lack of this is the only thing keeping the SP where it is, in my opinion.
LBO is pragmatic and would not invest on 'gut feelings', however it is a high risk averse institution, To date their involvement alone has underpinned the SP.
Why are Pharmaceuticals not making a play for FUM. Well, perhaps, due to the simplicity of the Eroxon gel formulation, they may be using R&D teams to try and to create their own formulation, outside the parameters of the existing patent.
Also, maybe the BoD are shy of multi tasking.
By now everyone who needs to know about FUM should know about the company and it's product.
Whether FUM is premier league or league one, it's going to make money.
Short term movements are largely irrelevant. If one believes in the FUM story, then it should be clear that the overall trajectory is upwards. I guess some bought in as 'Stags' and are awaiting the payback, rest of us can relax.
Jet7 - Agree with your synopses.
This situation is a little akin to internet startups who do really well to launch a platform and then the baton is passed on to a large established giant to develop it and generate huge profits. (A giant who makes and offer too good to refuse)