Member Info for 5085

Head of Data Analysis for an international firm, yes as boring as it sounds.

Germanium and gallium are typically obtained as by-products from the processing of other ores, such as zinc and bauxite. In the European Union (EU), primary production of these metals has significantly declined over the past few decades.

Historical Production: Primary germanium production previously occurred in France and Austria; however, these mines were depleted and closed approximately 25 years ago.

Current Status: In recent years, there has been no recovery of germanium in Europe through mining or from coal ash.

Gallium:

Historical Production: Germany, Hungary, and Kazakhstan ceased primary production of gallium between 2013 and 2016.

Current Status: As of 2017, the leading producers of low-grade gallium were China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, and Ukraine.

Recent Developments:

Greece: In March 2024, reports indicated the confirmation of deposits containing scarce metals, including germanium and gallium, in Greece.

France: In July 2023, the French Minister of Economy and Finance called for Europe to become independent in the supply of gallium and germanium, suggesting that the European Commission should add these raw materials to the list of critical minerals for which the EU is seeking self-sufficiency. It was also mentioned that France would examine whether these resources can be produced domestically.

Despite these developments, the EU remains heavily dependent on imports for both germanium and gallium, with China being a major supplier. In 2023, the EU was heavily dependent on China for imports of magnesium, germanium, and gallium.

In summary, while there are some known in-ground assets and historical production sites for germanium and gallium within the EU, current active mining operations for these metals are minimal or nonexistent. The region continues to rely predominantly on imports to meet its demand for these critical raw materials.

Chios Island

Absolutely Tiger , the press are excited over a recent discovery of Gallium at 0.0071% we have reported 9.7 and 19.0 g/t with an average of 15.3 g/t Ga, with the highest individual assay being 33.3g/t

This is now big news

◎ 6 meters of mineralization at a depth of 4 meters, with a gallium grade of 0.0071%, including 1 meter of mineralization with a grade of 0.0124%;

◎ 45 meters of mineralization at the surface, with a grade of 0.005%.

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103106306/Significant-Gallium-Mineralization-Discovered-in-the-Caraj%C3%A1s-Rare-Earth-Mine-in-Brazil

What did Rockfire report

Meanwhile, gallium grades between 9.7 and 19.0 g/t were intersected with an average of 15.3 g/t Ga, with the highest individual assay being 33.3g/t Ga in hole MO_GTK_003A.

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/rockfire-resources-confirms-presence-of-high-grade-germanium-and-gallium-at-molaoi-164d42a/

ChatGPT input: IGME didn't mine Molaoi in the 80's due to the volatile price of zinc

Answer: You're correct. The Greek Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration (IGME) conducted extensive exploration at the Molaoi zinc-lead-silver deposit in the 1980s, identifying a substantial mineral resource. However, despite promising results, the deposit was not developed into a mining operation during that time.

The primary reason was the volatility in the price of zinc on the global market during the 1980s. Economic conditions made it financially unfeasible to proceed with mining operations, as the fluctuating and often depressed zinc prices could not justify the significant capital investment required to develop the site.

Additionally, other factors such as regulatory, technological, or logistical challenges might have played a role, but the economic viability driven by zinc prices was a key consideration.

This decision left the deposit dormant until recent years when companies like Rockfire Resources resumed exploration and development activities, taking advantage of improved market conditions and advancements in mining technology.

It always amuses me here that people steer well away from fact when posting negative biased information.

Here’s some actual facts to chew on.

Since the 1980’s, 199 holes have been drilled on the Molaoi acreage, each one hitting mineralisation, often with many lodes being intersected.

A number of holes in the 80’s were drilled to the north well away from the 2km strike zone, these were drilled as a means of defining the size of the strike, these also struck mineralisation.

To date, every hole drilled by either IGME or Rockfire has hit zinc and other associate metals, not a single miss. It is fair to say if the price of zinc had not been too volatile back in the 80’s this area would have already been asset stripped.

So far Rockfire have only drilled 20 holes and this small campaign resulted in a 500% resource upgrade.

Now it could be said that from here every hole drilled in the future may produce a blank but it is mathematically reasonable to assume minimisation will continue to be hit and with that further increases in resource estimates. If the strike is open for the full 7km and at depth 500m to 1000m (as yet untested) the in-situ valuation (bearing in mind prices are increasing constantly) is approx. $77 billion. By the time this acreage is mine ready the in-situ valuation could be many multiples higher than today, mainly due to the amount of Germanium and Gallium in the ground.

I’m in no hurry to see a sale or JV, the longer this takes the better for me.

The drill bit will start turning soon enough and the worldwide situation is only going to worsen.

https://asiatimes.com/2024/12/chinas-gallium-and-germanium-bans-hit-their-trade-war-mark/

A USGS study recently estimated the likely total cost to the US economy from disruptions to supplies of gallium and germanium alone at more than $3 billion. But the situation is complicated. China imposed licensing requirements on exports of both metals in July 2023. It has not exported either to the U.S. this year, according to Chinese customs data. Antimony exports also have plunged.

China produces the lion's share of most critical minerals, but there are alternatives. Japan also imports nearly all of its gallium, for example, but it also extracts it by recycling scrap metal.

China was the world's leading producer of gallium, germanium and antimony in 2023. The U.S. did not produce gallium or antimony in 2023. It did produce some zinc concentrates containing germanium at mines in Alaska and Tennessee.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/why-chinas-ban-on-exports-of-rare-minerals-gallium-germanium-could-cost-us-billions/articleshow/116048772.cms?from=mdr

Canada is acting it wont take long for Europe and Greece to do the same

https://www.miningnewsnorth.com/story/2024/12/20/news/us-canada-fund-critical-fireweed-metals/8842.html

Germanium is one example of how trade restrictions — including sanctions affecting Russian metals and mining — are shutting international merchants out of the market, reducing their role as suppliers of last resort in times like this.

Alongside a handful of Chinese producers and a few alternative ones overseas, supplies of minor metals have traditionally been controlled by a group of specialist traders primarily operating out of London, New York, Hong Kong and Tokyo.

They’ve historically built inventories when supplies are ample, before waiting — sometimes for years — to sell them when metal becomes scarce.

But since China’s restrictions last year, many have been frozen out of the affected metals, with customs officials only approving shipments to established end users, according to people familiar with the matter. Germanium and gallium exports to traders’ main storage hubs in the Netherlands and Hong Kong have collapsed to zero, trade data show. That means less available metal on hand.

Take Suzannah Lipmann’s family owned firm, famous among London’s tight-knit network of minor metals traders for having virtually every rare mineral in stock. Lipmann Walton & Co. no longer includes germanium on its list, having stepped out of that market for now in response to tightening trade restrictions.

“Normally, the trade would find a way to solve these types of shortages if you leave it be,” said Lipmann, whose family has traded minor metals for three generations. “In a geopolitical crisis, normally the one thing that keeps on flowing is metal.”

With traders ill-equipped to plug the gap, manufacturers have been tapping their own buffer stocks, seeking to lock in additional supplies from a handful of alternative Western refiners and asking governments for help in building more resilient supply chains.

Beijing’s grip on germanium is looser than it is for gallium, but is still a concern for the US as it seeks to become less reliant on Chinese supplies.

After China’s curbs last year, the Biden administration sent diplomats to Belgium and the Democratic Republic of Congo to shore up critical mineral supplies for domestic manufacturers, including defense and aerospace contractors who need extremely pure forms of germanium to keep satellites in orbit and missiles on target.

It’s only the beginning of China’s “attempts to assert its dominance on critical minerals,” Jose Fernandez, US under secretary of state for economic growth, energy and the environment, said in Brussels this month. “I’m anticipating this will not be the last time we need to address this issue.”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/12/21/tiny-but-vital-metal-markets-rush-to-adjust-to-chinese-clampdown/

“The Chinese aren’t even offering germanium overseas now,” said Terence Bell, manager of Vancouver-based Strategic Metal Investments, a minor metals trader.

Each shipment requires approval, which takes 30 to 80 days and makes long-term supply contracts unviable due to uncertainty. Markus Roas, a metals business manager at Indium Corporation, said that U.S. companies were finding it challenging to get licenses and only had weeks' worth of germanium and gallium left.

“Right now, on germanium, there’s definitely a risk of running out of supply,” Roas stated.

https://www.sourcengine.com/blog/semiconductor-industry-news?srsltid=AfmBOoqnU0hI3bVR69a-IyqANdKKzAcVkFtAlZAqSk8AGBb-6plQl0WB

Https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GWAV/greenwave-technology-solutions-inc-nasdaq-gwav-accelerates-rare-l2efyhq5lsdi.html

Germanium and gallium assets will now start to be swallowed up.

https://hotcopper.com.au/news/asx-news/150777/highest-global-germanium-grades-impress-rapid-enough-to-pick-up-prophet-river-project/

Https://www.mining.com/web/tiny-but-vital-metal-markets-rush-to-adjust-to-chinese-clampdown/

I have carried out extensive research of Rockfire and all their assets. For me, at this moment in time, until further news is released, and a raise is very unlikely I believe a M/C between £60 - £80m offers fair value, so at these levels, I’m happy to add as I have been.

Good luck and enjoy the festive season.

Rockfire Resources plc, which manages the deposit through its subsidiary Hellenic Minerals SA, announced a few days ago the increase of the potential reserve potential by 500% in the zinc, silver and lead deposit of the Molao Lakonia public mining area.

Calculations have been made in accordance with the current Australian Joint Committee on Mineral Reserves Code for the reporting of mineral resource and ore reserve research results (JORC 2012).

As a result, Molai is now among the top 20 developing zinc deposits worldwide in terms of reserve potential, grade and zinc equivalent metal content.

Specifically, the JORC reserve potential estimate for the Molaus is 15 million tonnes grading 7.26% Zn, 1.75% Pb and 39.5 g/t Ag (9.96% Zn equivalent), which means that the Molao deposit is estimated to contain 1,090,000 tons of zinc, 260,000 tons of lead and 19.1 million ounces of silver.

It is also noted that the Molao deposit also contains germanium, which is one of the rare critical metals in the world. According to a preliminary survey, the available amount of germanium has been estimated to reach 4.8 million tons with a content of 21.9 g/t Ge, corresponding to about 105,700 kg of germanium.

https://energypress-gr.translate.goog/news/metaxy-ton-20-koryfaion-ypo-anaptyxi-koitasmaton-pseydargyroy-ston-kosmo-oi-molaoi-simantiki?_x_tr_sl=el&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

Cont

Monetary Value:

Zinc: 14,700,000t Zn × 2,500$/t = 36.75B USD

14,700,000t Zn×2,500$/t=36.75B USD

Lead: 4,900,000t Pb × 2,100$/t = 10.29B USD

4,900,000t Pb×2,100$/t=10.29B USD

Silver: 36,750,000 oz Ag × 25 $/oz = 0.92B USD

36,750,000oz Ag×25$/oz=0.92B USD

Germanium: 24,500,000kg Ge × 1,200$/kg = 29.4B USD

24,500,000kg Ge×1,200$/kg=29.4B USD

Total Gross Value

Adding these together, the estimated in-situ value:

Total Gross Value = 36.75 + 10.29 + 0.92 + 29.4 = 77.36B USD

Total Gross Value=36.75+10.29+0.92+29.4=77.36B USD

Adjustments and Considerations

Operational Costs:

Mining costs, processing costs, and transportation could consume 40–60% of gross value.

Recovery Losses:

A 90% recovery rate would reduce the total value to 69.6B USD

Exploration Risks:

Actual grades, continuity of mineralization, and metallurgical recovery could vary.

This is a preliminary estimate based on available data and general assumptions. A full economic feasibility study would provide a precise valuation. Would you like to refine these assumptions or consider additional factors?

Estimating the monetary value of the Molaoi deposit over a 7 km strike length requires several assumptions based on known data about grades, depths, recoveries, and commodity prices. Here's a breakdown:

Assumptions and Data Points

Strike Length & Depth:

Strike: 7 km.

Depth: Assumed to extend consistently over an economically mineable range (e.g., 500–1,000 meters vertically).

Grades (typical for VMS deposits, including Molaoi based on published studies):

Zinc (Zn): ~6–8% by weight.

Lead (Pb): ~2–3% by weight.

Silver (Ag): ~100–200 grams per ton (g/t).

Germanium (Ge): 50–150 ppm (parts per million).

Minor byproducts like gallium (Ga) could also contribute.

Tonnage:

Assuming an average width of 10–50 meters and a density of 3.5 t/m³ (typical for sulfide ore), the tonnage is calculated:

Volume = Strike Length × Width × Depth

Volume=Strike Length×Width×Depth

Commodity Prices (current as of late 2024):

Zinc: $2,500 per metric ton.

Lead: $2,100 per metric ton.

Silver: $25 per ounce.

Germanium: $1,200 per kilogram.

Recovery:

Recovery rates depend on the ore's metallurgy but typically range from 85–95%.

Estimated Resource and Value

Using these parameters:

Volume and Tonnage:

For a conservative estimate:

Width: 20 m.

Depth: 500 m.

Strike: 7,000 m.

Volume = 7,000m × 20m × 500m = 70,000,000m3

Volume=7,000m×20m×500m =70,000,000m3 Tonnage = Volume × Density =70,000,000m3 × 3.5 t/m3 = 245,000,000 tons

Tonnage=Volume×Density=70,000,000m3 ×3.5t/m3 = 245,000,000tons

Metal Content:

Using average grades:

Zinc: 245,000,000t × 6% = 14,700,000t Zn 245,000,000t×6%=14,700,000t Zn

Lead: 245,000,000t ×2% = 4,900,000t Pb 245,000,000t×2%=4,900,000t Pb

Silver: 245,000,000t × 150g/t = 36,750,000 oz Ag 245,000,000t×150g/t=36,750,000oz Ag

Germanium: 245,000,000t × 100ppm = 24,500,000kg Ge 245,000,000t×100ppm=24,500,000kg Ge

The economic value of the Molai ore deposit is based on geological, geochemical, geophysical and core-logging data that prove that it contains ~10.6 to ~26.5% Zn, ~1.5 to ~2.9% Pb and ~60 to ~90 g/t Ag [28]. The reported maiden JORC 2012-compliant resources of the Molai deposit are 3.2 ± 0.2 Mt with 11% Zn eq. (e.g., 9.4% Zn, 1.8% Pb, 47 g/t Ag and a cut-off grade of 4% Zn) for lodes of ~210 Kt Zn, ~39 Kt Pb and ~3.5 Moz Ag and a recovery rate of 90% using the cut-and-fill method and bulk floatation for recovery of 20% [69]. Rockfire Resources Ltd. also announced in 2022 that ore concentrates for the Molai deposit yield ~57% Zn, ~64% Pb, ~2.6% Cu, ~860 g/t Ag, ~0.5 g/t Au and a weighted average grade of Ge at ~50 g/t, with maximum values of 197 g/t (based on 51 assayed samples re-analyzed from the pre-existing drill cores). Hellenic Minerals IKE (Nicosia, Cyprus), a subsidiary of Rockfire Resources Ltd. (London, UK), is currently employing a drilling project that aims at extending the zinc resources both at depth and to the north.

https://www.mdpi.com/2075-163X/14/9/885