RE: Brexit looming15 Dec 2020 04:52
Britain will do a Brexit deal on Europe’s terms
The extension of trade talks between the EU and the UK should not be a surprise. For all Boris Johnson’s bravado about “prospering mightily”, the British prime minister knows that a “no deal” Brexit would be disastrous for the country. The EU would also suffer, but not nearly as much. So there will probably be a deal struck before the end of the year; if not, soon afterwards.
When an agreement is reached, it will largely be on Europe’s terms. The EU will doubtless make some concessions on fisheries as part of last-minute haggling. But Britain will have to agree to the EU’s central demand, which is that there must be “level-playing field” rules — ensuring that the UK cannot undercut EU regulations on competition at will.
The reason that the deal will be done on the EU’s terms is the same reason why the whole Brexit process has been so painful for Britain — a fundamental asymmetry in power between the two sides. Britain sends 43 per cent of its exports to the EU; Germany, France and Italy all send around 6 per cent of their exports to Britain. The population of the UK is nearly 67m; that of the EU is 447m. Even without Britain, the EU has a single market comparable in size to that of the US or China.
Mr Johnson insists that the UK and the EU are “sovereign equals”. But, as long as the EU maintains its unity, they are not equals in terms of power. And that is what has mattered in these negotiations. It is why Britain has made a series of painful concessions over the past four years — most notably by agreeing to a separate status for Northern Ireland, which will see customs checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea, effectively dividing the United Kingdom.
The British have always insisted there is a win-win deal that Brussels and London should both happily embrace. But they have failed to understand how the EU sees its own interests. The integrity and attractiveness of the European single market is the EU’s single most important strategic asset. Brussels is determined not to undermine that strength, by allowing the UK market access on terms that are too advantageous.
The Europeans also need to demonstrate to Eurosceptic forces within their own countries that leaving the EU is a bad idea. So they have always been much less sold on the idea that there can be a “win-win” outcome from Brexit.
Once the Europeans had decided that it was not in their interests to grant Britain the easy access to the single market that Mr Johnson had breezily promised to UK voters, relative power became crucial. Unfortunately, Britain’s Leavers have consistently overestimated Britain’s power — believing that the EU was about to fold or make concessions that never materialised.
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