A couple things that make me feel slightly better when i'm watching this drop. 1) Looking at the graph for the past 3 months, it looks like this share is following a bit of a pattern of ups and downs. My view is that support will be found @ 60 - 58p, from which point we should see a bounce up into the 70's. The longer term trend is evident - as long as it finds support @ about 60p - this is going UP. Good top up opportunity! 2) We know that demand for coking coal WILL increase from China, India, and globally for that matter. Demand may not go through the roof by next week, but as a longer term theme (coming out of global recession), I think this is going UP. 3) We know there is a poss deal on the table. If this goes through, we KNOW which way this is going. If the deal doesnt go through - we also know reserves are in excess of current market CAP. 4) POLO has a 26% stake in CDN, and i'm advised the shares were bought @ about £1.20 (this fig. may not be 100% accurate , but we know for a fact that they were well in excess of current SP). They will not sell their stake at a loss. Hopefully my above assumptions will prove correct. I have courage in my conviction on this share - however for anyone reading this post and thinking of buying in - please DYOR first! GL Guys.
Thanks for that. I think your right. Lets hope the currency improves 5% gainst the Dollar, rather than the other way. That should help this share price no end, because it will effectively mean a 5% drop in companies loan payments, meaning perhaps they could overpay a bit, and get the monkey off its back a bit quicker.
The only thing that I would excercies caution with is their debt position. @ 71million, this is a still a bit spicy, even though its been reduced. Worth keeping an eye on the things that may affect their ability to repay - i.e. exchange rate between the Tenge and USD. Any further devaluation of the Kazakh currency would see me split! GL.
Thanks for response. TAP and SDIG have been duly watchlisted! I'l spend an hour or two digging on these later. Thanks for the heads up. Just to reciprocate, I see value in CDN - their sitting on top of resouces worth more than their market cap, have a potential t/o on the table of Indian firm Essar, which could potentially triple up on the current SP. DYOR of course! Currently 65p. Good luck with whatever your in!
Noticed you about the place quite a bit recently - mainly though over at PXS. For the record, I think you called it right to jump out when you did - there is definately long term potential, however in the absence of any actual news, it started to feel like a feeding frenzy to me! When a share feels like its being sold akin to double glazing, or a kirby hoover, I split. You seem to be into quite a few potential multi baggers, where do get your info? Keep me posted. Thanks!
Hargreaves lansdowne rated - Strong buy
Nice to see someone else has spotted this one - I was beginning to Q my judgement! But then some of the real gems are often overlooked. I say this because further to my research, I really think we have a little gem on our hands. Its true that demand for cement has dropped considerably, and further pressure imposed on the company via the deavluation of the Kazakh currency against the dollar. However, as a value / recovery play I see a lot of things ticking a lot of boxes. They will be the main player when it comes to dry production cement manufacture, putting them ahead of the competition coming out of global recession. They are already grabbing more of the market share, forecasting 30% in 2010, putting them in a serious position for growth when the time comes. Debts are reducing, relieving pressure bit by bit on the dollar loans. Kazakh government encouraging protectionism within the sector, so captive national market. Market cap (52.4) divided by profit (18.24) means this business could cover its own market cap in profits in only 2.8 years!! OK, I realise this is a crude calculation when not taking the debt into account - but still! I personally see this as a winner. I'm staying in, and will top up further if it dips into 30's. Good Luck Ted
I do have confidence in some of the well known, prolific posters, over at PXS board. My decision wasn't based purely on the 'secret' keeping. I just set pretty strict parameters on any retraces - which can sometimes work to my disadvantage on the more volatile penny shares. (Just didnt want it to come across like I was slating anyone over there). Good luck!
keep up the good work - roll another fat one!
I know! I'm a mug. I lost my nerve! But I didnt want to disrupt the boad by saying I was getting out. Will keep watching. GL! (Sorry for off topic post to those who are only interested in CDN!)
You still into PXS? I bought 6k worth of those shares, but sold out on them yesterday, because they felt like they were gonna get a bit hairy. Plus I didnt feel comfortable about some secret information that was being passed around between some posters behind the scenes. Have you since found out what this 'secret' was, and why it couldnt be shared with others? Do you still see PXS as a speculative buy? I might jump back in if they drop any further! Cheers.
I think its more likely that it wil just continue to trade under its current name, on the same exchange, just majority owned by a foriegn company.
Dont worry, good things come to those who wait! There are a few things going for this share that are undeniable value enhancers from the current SP. 1) Possible takeover. 2) Increased demand for energy / coking coal, as we come out of global recession. 3) Resources which are worth far in excess of whats reflected in the current market Cap. 4) Some major investors with seroius clout in the mining world and a packet of cash / liquid assetts - i.e. PRL (Dattels). I'm almost postive that we will see a continued pattern like the one we can all see on the 3 month graph. After this next dip, we will be closer again to takeover news. If the deal falls through, we will def see a retrace, as people who were into this for the quick buck jump ship. But always refer back to the fundamental strengths of this company, and the future demand for its product - I cant see patient investors losing out on this IMHO. But as always - DYOR! GL.
I agree totally. My faith in this company stems from some serious research being done into Stephen Dattells - who is by a large a mining mogul with a en extensive and exceptional CV. I have further (indirect) exposure to this company via Polo resouces (PRL), which again I feel is a flyer just waiting to happen. Dattels is invested in Caledon up to 26% of the company @ a stake (which i'm advised) of approx £1.20 per share. TBH i've seen figures ranging from 90p - 120p as the cost PRL paid per share, but not seen this in black & white myself yet. Even so, one can assume a 50% premium on current share price, and I very much doubt Dattells will let this go for anything less, and more likely will want considerably more. Further more, Dattels was the original founder of Caledon and thus will have his finger on the pulse - both in terms of what the company / site is worth resource wise, and will have a susequent BIG say in what goes on here as a mjor stakeholder. Checking out the pattern on the past 3 months graph (although i'm no technical expert chart wise), I feel that this will continue on its natural couse in the absense of news, by taking a dip, before heading back north again. It wouldnt surprise me (in the absense of news) to see this cool off to 60p before surging on past 70p. Would (if it occurs) offer another great top up opportunity, for long termers( like me) to increase stake. Polo however would be another way to get indirect (diluted) exposu
Fair enough! :-)
All short term volatility aside, where do you see these in 12 months? I think the prospects are good. Whats your thoughts. Can i illicit a price prediction from you?? Kelster - feel free to chuck your six penneth worth in too!
I suppose 25% retrace on the back of a 300% recent increase may not be out of the question. But opinions over this share holding its gains seem to have been quashed temporarily. I've personally not been shaken out, so i'm banking on it being a slight correction, as people take profits, and place funds in more mainstream shares that appear to be doing well today after positive news on Europe coming out of recession lead by Germany and France. I hope i'm right, but this board seems eerily quiet today. I'm trying to get some quality info off a few guys who are red hot on Level 2, over on the PXS board. Maybe they will be able to shed some enlightened opinion over whats happeneing. Good Luck
What on earth.....!!! Ive logged on to SNT to check their performance. Whats going on??
If there is anyone out there invested in this company, give me a shout on one of the other boards i'm on. Would like to get some other peoples perspective on this share. Picked up 5k worth today - I think they are good value. Growing their market share, reducing their debts, good p/e ratio, and trending upwards. Should benefit from global recovery. I see these going further.
Thanks for pointing that out, I didnt realise the spread had acually narrowed throughout the day. I still think 16% is pricey anyway, and its now gone to 20%!