Member Info for 1nvest

Thanks Troajan, all news welcome for us newer investors.

Capita look to be on the right track now. Disposal at last off ESS which will release much needed capital to further modernise Capita in respect to integrating services across numerous different platforms in views of companies purchased in the past. Hopefully in two years time past the pandemic will see a real efficient profitable business. I was going to say smaller company but the way they have been securing contracts I'm not so sure this will be the case :)

Had no trouble purchasing this morning but probably because only a small amount. Thanks for all your posts which I found very useful whilst undertaking research on the company and future prospects from where the company has been in past year. Still unsure on future profitability but looks to lining up the right processes and people to get things back on track but looks to be a two-three year Outlook in my view. Worth buying a few for sure on upside potential

From half year results last year:
'Hurricane continues to work with all GWA stakeholders on the best way forward for the Lincoln discovery. The GWA JV has a commitment to plug and abandon the 205/26b-14 Lincoln well by 30 June 2021 at an estimated total cost of $12 million gross.'

Contract with Petrofac looks to be in line with work already proposed. Now looking forward to the ongoing production work:

' Material balance analysis shows a distinctive reduction in the rate of pressure decline with cumulative production, suggesting a complex reservoir system. Energy may be provided by a combination of oil-in-place expansion (within fractured basement and separate sandstone reservoirs), aquifer influx both from below and laterally, a developing secondary gas cap, compaction drive and other possible sources of energy.

· The relative contributions from each source of reservoir energy cannot be uniquely determined from material balance analysis alone. An integrated approach including reservoir modelling and updated structural analysis is therefore being used to refine estimates of oil in place, potential recovery and provide better predictive tools.

· Lancaster is a significantly more complex reservoir system than originally thought, with the onlapping sandstones appearing to represent a significant part of the connected volume indicated by material balance analysis. Further work is required to verify this preliminary finding and potential implications for field development and ultimate recovery.'

Hopefully remodelling will confirm significant upside in reserves and maybe additional gas to be sold off as well!

If Lincoln is connected to Lancaster then no point in spending millions to develop 50% of field. As its 8km away this gives a sign of the potential field in that direction as well as significant reserves from sandstones from further updates.

A picture is building up and I'd rather have an update on reserves hopefully confirming the above before confirmation of plugging of Lancaster well.

Any differing view points?

Would be good to get your view points but my reading of petrofac contract is in respect to Lincoln Crestal Well will being plugged and abandoned as this why they were talking about using the Paul B Loyd Jr rig previously.

Hurricane are getting on with their commitments so no news currently to be released. Please tell me I've got this wrong and it's being used for another purpose....

Long term for me as an investor is not 5-6 months and my target is well in excessive of £1.20 which I believe is achievable with 12-18 month period.

Sounds more positive then :)

Think a lot of shorts are purely closing due to share shenanigans elsewhere where there are large short positions. Hopefully I'm wrong but looks that way.

What's obvious? Maybe they are shorting but honestly is one person going to make share drop. I actually find some of his posts interesting and adds a counter argument to keep people grounded. A lot of people have been seriously burnt by this share. Someone will be right and others wrong.

I personally can see a very attractive share price in view of risk reward. Fully prepared to lose everything but on the other hand a real multi-bagger if BoD get this right by investing in side track and are successful. Then they have lots of potential acreage to explore as well as able to pay back bondholders with good production with good price of oil.

Different Angle, totally agree. Its going to be a very interesting year. BoD need to get their act together in my view. Press releases in past year have not been constructed well when there has been positive news on stabilising oil production (water cut only slowly increasing as to be expected), potential of sandstones increasing reserves and potentially increasing oil production in last quarter with successful side track. Company has a lot going for it so paragraphs stating dilution and potentially non investment could have been worded better.

Fingers crossed for more good news this year.

Different Angle if this is the case that purely the increase in oil price has led to 19m extra in a month then there would be no reason to increase equity or refinamce bonds as are producing enough oil to cover bonds and investment. We should therefore be looking at excess of 20p by year end and potentially a lot more.

Earning 19m last month extra cash was a one off IMHO. I believe Hurricane has previously advised their production costs are approximately 34 dollars a barrel therefore based upon just over 12000 production a day earns around 7m a month. A significant amount. Just wanted to post for newer investors. Production likely to decrease over the year with increased water cut but with investment in side track I believe company will be in a great position by the end of this year.

I'm hoping water injection is doable as:
1. It maintains pressure
2. Potential of increasing production reserves from overlapping sandstones.
Dont read too much into IIs say on company when they are not looking at the research which Hurricane have undertaken in the past 4 months following remapping. Hopeful of positive news to follow

I'd say 60p maybe 30p less than this or £5 more, give or take a few pence/pound euro dollar, rouble, ruppee.... Think that's pretty accurate, sure buy

I have made the same assumption but not having any RNS does put the same doubt in my mind. Stena Drilling has made an announcement but not disclosing operator does not fill me with confidence about the BoD and if it is Hurricane says it all. Makes me smile about all the rampers talking about experienced transparent open BoD. Maybe I have been burnt too often or going to turn into an old fa*t when I'm older :P
I'm hoping it is Hurricane and lots of positive news to come out but not willing to invest anymore until I actually see the BoD being more transparent with Shareholders. Maybe they are and Stena going somewhere else but need confirmation as no trust in current BoD.

Hopefully the error was purchasing £800 rather than £8,000 in which case a lucky escape.

I can see the price increasingly significantly if reserves are updated upwards and a forward plan in respect side tracking well without dilution of shares (rescheduling / refinance of bonds) In which case you will recover your paper losses. If there is a dilution of 50% than expect recovery by end of year subject to side track progression and success.
If no forward plans and no increase in reserves then a good chance you could lose your investment but IMHO unlikely.
More likely refinance by bond holders taking a small equity holding or rescheduling on preferential terms hurting current share holders but allowing forward working plan. May take longer to recover your money 12 months plus

David NcKenzie appointed to grow London building for long term growth. Those pointing to doom and gloom of company as quite frankly clueless. Debt needs to be serviced and will continue to do so. Part of building trade having debt.

https://www.building.co.uk/news/kier-turns-to-aecom-for-head-of-london-building-business/5110064.article

An actual balanced discussion on Hurricane. It's good to see and its about time rather than talking about share price hitting 10p by tomorrow.

This is more of a long term play and all dependent on how company is going to refinance or pay off bond. Is it a case of:
1. Accumulating cash with high price of oil, no further investment
2. Investing in side track to produce more oil so increasing production and then paying off bond
3. Debt for equity swap
4. Refinancing bonds
5. Partial debt for equity swap and potential refinancing - My preferred option if oil production is not significant to refinance or pay off whilst undertaking side track and water injection. This will lead to dilution of shares but should be compensated with higher SP in the future.

I disagree as potential as follows from December RNS, 'Building on the initial results of the technical review announced in September 2020, a remapping exercise has been completed to more accurately define the complex reservoir horizons now recognised in Lancaster. The reservoir simulation model has also been extensively rebuilt, utilising this remapping work, recognising the contribution from sandstones onlapping fractured basement, and using additional historical and regional data. This simulation model has been used to assess various near-term development options which are currently under technical and commercial review.'

I don't believe sandstones has been included in current reserves. Correct me if i'm wrong.

Lots of potential out there and also significant risk but i' m a lot more comfortable today than yesterday. The last RNS in December was disappointing but not as negative as most thought. I should have sold and repurchases but timings were wrong. I still topped up but only have a small amount in the first place. A speculative buy which could well pay off handsomely.

Currently Hurricane has over £100m in the bank. Producing in excess of 12,000 Barrels a day which will reduce over the year but strongly cash generative in view of price of oil. Side-tracking the existing 205/21a-7z well could maintain current production capacity or even increase it. This will deplete reserves but looks like sandstones could add to reserves. Development costs are currently estimated at c.$60 million and water injection at 75 million. In view of current price of oil dilution may no longer be on the cards and if it is very much on a reduced basis.
Real potential for SP to increase which also lead to smaller dilution. Just need further reserves to put 2021 into a transformative year rather than share holder annilation. May still pull the rabbit out of hat!