Member Info for 1DayRodney

I don't know about short term predictions but I've got an inkling and, I'm gonna throw it out there, that this share won't exist past Jan 2025.

The problem is that this company is a news trader's delight. It lacks substantial longer term investors. Many who have held long term still hold because they have been marooned but then sell as soon as they've cleared their holding price.

We are still very much in the infancy of commercialisation.
This will only really steady once the company has established sizeable repetitive sales here in the UK and/or with one of the overseas distributors.
There will be 'step ups' in the SP and then subsequent fallbacks based on further news e.g. NICE, FDA, stroke assay, but this share has too few in circulation and a large PI holding to be a smooth riser.

I think that (providing adequate funding secured) GDR will mature nicely over the next 12-18mths and then hopefully it'll transition to an investor/II share rather than a speculative one.

Good find Luke2

"Currently, it's accepted that the price that some patients have to pay for surviving a life-threatening bacterial infection is the loss of their ability to hear," said Dr. Peter Steyger, professor of otolaryngology, head and neck surgery at Oregon Health & Science University School of Medicine, in a 2015 news release. "The costs of this incalculable loss are borne by patients and society." 
!!!!!!!!!
Maybe someone at Genedrive should email Dr Peter Steyger and the article's author Joy Victory and give them the good news that this is now avoidable as long as the FDA give us approval :)

If anyone was building any kind of substantial holding i.e. anything above 3% then they would need to issue a TR-1 major holdings disclosure form, so we would know.
3% here is less than 3million shares or approx £1.3m.

I believe a TR-1 has to be issued on any share purchase or disposal of greater 1% once above the 3%.

Ha,ha....they've just corrected it!

Maybe they read your post Guy!!!? Lol

Obviously a typo!
Should read 50BC started by Hippocrates himself lol.

Always learning, me.

It's going to be a massive step change if both stroke and AIHL kits gets the global foothold they envisage!
Would they need a global partner or parent company to make such a transition?

This may help clear things up as far as the assay manufacture...

https://www.cytivalifesciences.com/en/us/news-center/genedrive-test-for-covid-19-detection-using-lyo-stable-10001

"Genedrive™ CEO David Budd commented about the success of the collaboration: “We have extensive experience working with the Cytiva team on assay development and manufacturing for our point-of-care HCV, AIHL, and military programs"

One would think the manufacturer would supply the assay in its cartridge and the buffer in its collection tube, all fully sealed within sterile packets. They may even bundle the accessories e.g. swab.

This is an interview from Nov 2021 but there's been no suggestion that this has changed.

Jamrock, its a bit like a Dragon's Den moment really -

Would rather stick to only wanting to give 5% equity away i.e. no dilution, but struggle on with your company?

OR

Give away 25% equity i.e. accept dilution, raise the required capital, get a Dragon on board and have a solid profitable business in the near future??

You'll have to choose for yourself ....

Or you could ask Levi Roots for advice (Mr Reggae Reggae sauce) lol ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levi_Roots

Not strictly true with GDR as LTHs will tell you. Over the recent past they have done shares issues which have only been available to institutions and not PI's, so were diluting without payback. These were sometimes done as a loan repayment swap, so the institution set about selling those shares as soon as they could which kept the SP depressed.

A couple of those that may have been available to PI's were done at a massive discount so the price did not recover for a fair while leaving many stranded.
The air on this board was sometimes very blue!

In Sept 21 lack of faith in the BOD's performance at the time was demonstrated when an invitational open share issue was not fully subscribed to by PI's. Part of that raise (if it had been fully subscribed) was earmarked to pay for the MT-RNR1 FDA submission.

Having said that, this is the closest GDR have come to substantial commercialisation, so investors may well feel differently now.

To be fair, this time they have been up front and said they're probably going to need one. Previously some of diluting RNS have come out of the blue!
I think they were probably hoping initial contracts with NHS would allow the MT-RNR1 to be self financing at the beginning.

Guess everyone has to make their own minds up whether to buy, sell or just sit tight and see!

@ jamrock

I've been in GDR since 2020 (was even in Yourgene back then too but soon got out of again!). At that time there were only approx 38m GDR shares, hence the SP rodeo ride back then.

However it's not quite true about being late to the COVID19 party.
GDR actually launched a lab test in May 2020 but the UK govt stuck with the 'pals' suppliers and although we had a USA distributor, the FDA played hardball and wouldn't give us emergency approval.
The test was also too expensive for the Indian sub-continent, so in the end it was a complete flop.
During this time we had several raises (one particularly destructive for PI's) and we also paid off the outstanding Institutional Investors with shares.
Because everyone in the world was concerned with COVID back then, no one was buying our HIV test kit either. So, although we ended up debt free we had no comercial revenue stream just lots of expensive R&D and overhead costs.

One saving grace during that period was that the NHS were still continuing the MT-RNR1 trials in the hospitals.

Later we did develop the COVID19 POC which was indeed late to the party :S

So that's why financially we sit where we are today. A lot of it is down to trust now, but being debt free does open up more potential cash raising options.

BTW GDR do have a record about being 'cagey' about fund raises. I agree that the sooner they announce the fund raise pathway the better.

Re: NICE Stroke kit dates

As I see it..
Looking at the ' Final Scope' document on the NICE site -

Section 2.2.2 says of the Genedrive assay: "Although not yet available, .... the kit is under development and is expected to be available to the NHS after Q1 2023"

So, until the kit is made available I guess they can't finalise the interim dates. At the moment we are still in Q1, so theoretically still on target. Once further dates have been published, we can assume that Genedrive must have completed development and they must have handed over the kit to NICE.

My guess is the completion of development and receiving correct qualifications for marketing in UK and EU will be announced separately in an RNS.

~~~~

My thoughts are if we can get significant sales in the next 18mths (UK/EU/MidEast/USA) then we may start to be seen as food for a bigger fish. This is probably the best way for Genedrive to develop as a company. Just hope we can keep shareholder dilution down to an absolute minimum in the meanwhile.

@Aim-Game
Yes it is. They are running a comparison study with another POC (devised by a Canadian company) as well as the usual lab tests. If you click on the 'documents' link, there is the 'Final protocol' which can be dowloaded and it explains why, who and how for the assessment.

@System
To echo others..
Referring to RNS releases 22nd Aug & 26th Sept 22, it's my understanding that both kits are on the the new NICE Diagnostics Assessment Program (DAP) but only the MT-RNR1 has been moved up onto the EVA.

We are, however, also still waiting for an update on the FDA application process for the MT-RNR1 kit as initially raised by RNS of 5th Oct 22.

The NICE timetable for the stroke assay can be found here.

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-dg10054

This kit is not on the 'fast track' Early Valuation Assessment (EVA) scheme.
The final publication for this kit now appears to be 25th October.

All scheduled dates are on NICE webpage for the kit

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-dg10057

Once we've had significant sales, then maybe Raffs.

Until then it's just a very cautious 'thumbs up'....

Over 5.5mill in chunky sales (just under 2%) so far this morning.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a TR1 sometime soon.
Price seems to be holding up tho'

Confirmation Tweet:

https://twitter.com/genedriveplc/status/1632764453757374470?t=V5hZHPWq6MymOae5seKdRg&s=19

The company (Eurocare) has been around since 1988 and already sell neonatal products.

https://www.eurocare.fr/entreprise/

Fingers crossed, again!
(Not the best investment strategy I grant you....)

Similar articles to this type of testing has been published before.

See Genedrive's press release pages for

India 2020
Cameroon 2021

Thailand prison population -

https://theprogramme.ias2021.org/Abstract/Abstract/1510

Scotland 2022 -

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/20300989.hep-c-testing-treatment-pharmacies-beat-disease/

Unfortunately none have resulted in any significant sales as of yet :(