* UK COVID-19 toll had already topped 20,000 more than 10
days ago
* Data shows trebling of deaths in care homes
* Stats put UK on track to be among Europe's worst-hit
(Adds details)
By Andy Bruce
LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Britain is on track to record
one of the worst coronavirus death tolls in Europe, after data
published on Tuesday showed nationwide fatalities topped 24,000
nine days ago.
A day after Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke of success in
dealing with the outbreak, the new figures showed the week
ending April 17 was Britain's deadliest since comparable records
began in 1993.
The Office for National Statistics said 21,284 people had
died in England by April 17 with mentions of COVID-19 on their
death certificate. Together with figures from Scotland, Wales
and Northern Ireland, the total United Kingdom death toll was at
least 24,000 as of April 19.
"The United Kingdom is going to be right up there among the
worst-hit nations in the initial surge," said Bill Hanage,
associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard's T.H. Chan
School of Public Health.
"With the most optimistic views of the amount of immunity
that might be being generated, it would be still not be close to
having enough to be able to return to normal," he told Reuters.
Unlike the hospital death tolls announced daily by the
government, the fresh figures include deaths in community
settings, such as care homes where overall fatalities have
trebled in a few weeks.
Overall, Tuesday's figures for COVID-19 deaths in England
and Wales up to April 17 were more than 50% higher than the
daily toll for deaths in hospitals initially announced by the
government.
The figures underline the scale of the challenge facing
Johnson as he returns to work after recovering from COVID-19,
the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, and the
dangers of relaxing Britain's lockdown too soon.
He warned on Monday that it was still too dangerous to relax
stringent measures wreaking havoc on the economy, for fear of a
deadly second outbreak.
In a reminder that much is still unknown about the novel
coronavirus, health secretary Matt Hancock said some children
with no underlying health conditions had died from a rare
inflammatory syndrome which researchers believe to be linked to
COVID-19.
UK CRISIS
The ONS bases its figures on mentions of COVID-19 in death
certificates, including suspected cases rather than those who
actually tested positive.
Scotland last week reported 1,616 deaths that mentioned
COVID-19 on the death certificate as of April 19. Northern
Ireland posted 276 as of April 17. Another 1,016 had died in
Wales.
A UK death toll of more than 24,000 puts it among the
worst-hit in Europe, exceeding France - which also counts deaths
in care homes - by around 5,000 at that point in time.
Britain's true toll is likely to be closer to Spain or even
Italy, Europe's worst-affected countries, although their
reporting of deaths outside hospital is patchy so exact
comparisons are difficult.
The latest daily figures released by Britain's health
ministry for COVID-19 deaths in hospitals hit 21,092 on Monday.
Including all causes of death, 22,351 people died in England
and Wales in the 16th week of 2020, the biggest total since
comparable records began in 1993, the ONS said.
This was 11,854 more than average for the week. Given that
only 8,758 cases mentioned COVID-19 in death certificates, it is
likely that even the comprehensive ONS data are undercounting
the true toll.
Last week, a Financial Times analysis based on the gap
between the significant increase in all deaths and those that
mentioned coronavirus put Britain's true death toll at over
40,000.
(Reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Michael
Holden and Giles Elgood)