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UK GAS-Prices firm on sustained cold weather outlook

Tue, 01st Dec 2020 10:17

Dec 1 (Reuters) - British wholesale gas prices rose on
Tuesday as forecasts showed colder weather in early December,
lifting demand.

* Gas for day-ahead delivery rose by 1.25 pence
to
43.75 pence per therm by 1011 GMT.

* The January price was up 0.60 pence at
44.70p/therm.

* The latest long-term forecasts have turned colder,
analysts at
Refinitiv said in a daily note.

* Temperatures will be near or below normal this week and
next,
according to Refinitiv meteorologist Georg Mueller.

* Consumption for working days next week was up by 7 million
cubic
metres per day, which might provide some support to prompt
prices today, they added.

* The contract for working days next week was
up
0.95 pence at 44.20p/therm.

* Prices rose despite the British gas system opening some 20
mcm/day oversupplied on Tuesday.

* Total gas flows to Britain were up by 3 mcm day-on-day on
Tuesday.

* Peak wind generation is forecast at around 8.7 gigawatts
(GW) on
Tuesday and 8.6 GW on Wednesday, out of a metered capacity of 18
GW, according to Elexon data.

* Muted arrivals of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers also
supported prices.

* Higher prices for liquefied natural gas in Asia were
diverting
cargoes away from Europe, while maintenance in Qatar was
delaying a recovery in LNG in-flows, said analysts at Bank of
America in a report.

* "So Europe may have to wait until the spring to see
material
increases in liquid gas imports," they added.

* This could tighten European supply through the winter and
winter
gas prices could rise to coal break-evens in power generation of
around 18 euros per megawatt hour, they said.

* The January price at the Dutch TTF hub rose
by 0.38
euro to 15.40 euros per megawatt hour.

* The benchmark Dec. 20 EU carbon contract was
0.15 euro
higher at 29.29 euros a tonne.
(Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; editing by Nina Chestney)

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