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UK 10-year gilt yields head for highest close since 2008

Tue, 28th Apr 2026 15:55

* UK 10-year gilt yields ​on course ⁠to close above 5%

* Thirty-year yields near highest close ​since 1998

* Higher oil prices boost inflation fears across major economies

* Concern over Starmer's prospects also weighs on gilt prices

* BoE expected to keep rates ​on ‌hold on Thursday

LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - British 10-year government bond yieldswere on course for their highest close since 2008 ⁠as rising oil prices stoked inflation fears and pushed up borrowing costs ⁠globally, while concerns lingered about Prime Minister Keir ​Starmer's future.

Ten-year gilt yields were 4 basis points up on the day at 5.018% at 1434 GMT, on track to close above 5% for the first time since July 2008, and above their previous highest close since then of ​4.996% on ‌March 20.

"We expect volatility in gilts over the near-term. Gas powers much of the UK's electricity, but storage is limited - making it especially vulnerable to a resurgence in inflation," analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute said.

Oil prices rose 3% on Tuesday to $111 a barrel after a similar rise on Monday, pushing up yields across advanced economies.

Thirty-year gilt ​yields were also up 4 bps on the day at 5.701% - on track for their highest close since ‌1998 - while interest rate sensitive two-year yields were up 4 bps at 4.44%.

Earlier on Tuesday, analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote that the rise in 30-year yields had ‌in part been driven by "headlines that UK MPs were set to vote on whether PM Keir Starmer should be referred to the Privileges Committee, about whether he misled MPs on the vetting process to appoint Peter Mandelson ​as U.S. Ambassador".

The vote, due later on Tuesday, looks unlikely to pass as the Labour Party has ordered its lawmakers, who hold a comfortable ‌parliamentary majority, to vote against the motion.

If Starmer were to depart - potentially after municipal elections next week which are likely to bring losses for Labour - some economists see a risk that any successor from his party would ⁠pursue looser ⁠fiscal policy. Financial markets see only a 15% chance that the Bank of ‌England will raise interest rates to 4% from 3.75% on Thursday, but do expect it to raise rates in the coming months due ​to inflation pressures from the ​Iran war, though most economists are more doubtful that the BoE will raise ‌rates later this year. Inflation expectations data from Citi, released late on Monday, showed a fall in expectations in April after a spike in March, while the British Retail Consortium on Tuesday reported lower shop price inflation due to increased discounting. (Reporting by David Milliken, editing by Andy Bruce and Keith Weir)

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