RBC lifts BHP Group target price, but stays neutral on stock

(Sharecast News) - RBC Capital Markets has raised its target price for BHP Group after the mining giant's stronger-than-expected first-half results, welcoming the group's accelerating copper momentum, but kept a 'sector perform' rating on the stock.

On Tuesday, BHP beat consensus forecasts with EBITDA, free cash flow (FCF) and its interim dividend, alongside capital recycling through the announcement of its significant silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals.

First-half results also included a "clearer copper growth pathway", RBC said, with guidance upgrades at Escondida and strong progress at Vicuña.

"The key takeaway is that this was not just a financial beat, it confirms accelerating copper momentum, funded by structurally advantaged WAIO FCF and disciplined balance sheet management," RBC said.

The broker raised its target for its Australia-listed shares from $51.00 to $55.00, which equates to a 2,900p level for the London-listed stock.

The shares trade at 1.2 times net asset value and 6.5 times average EBITDA over FY25 and FY26, which is a "justified" premium rating compared with global peers.

"However, we think low near-term volume growth and elevated capex requirements (copper portfolio, and Jansen), coupled with declining iron ore prices, are set to compress FCF in the medium term, leaving us neutral on the stock," RBC said.

"We continue to expect the iron ore market to weaken from spot levels, which could act as a drag on the momentum."

The stock was flat at 2,714.39p by 0929 GMT.

BHP Group