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Prices mixed in volatile trading driven by supply uncertainty

Mon, 21st Mar 2022 10:17

March 21 (Reuters) - British and Dutch gas prices were mostly up in volatile trading on Monday morning, as broadly steady flows of Russian and higher flows of Norwegian gas failed to relieve concerns of supply cuts and forecasts show cooler weather next week.

The British gas price for day-ahead delivery was 3.00 pence higher at 229.00 pence per therm by 1008 GMT, while the April contract rose by 2.00 pence to 243.00 pence/therm, after initially trading lower.

In the Dutch gas market, the day-ahead gas contract was down by 0.75 euros to 99.65 euros per megawatt hour (MWh).

The Dutch April contract was 0.10 euro higher at 101.00 euros/MWh, after opening at 97 euros/MWh, its lowest level since Feb. 28.

"We see another neutral opening turning into a bit softer trading this morning as flows appear rather unchanged," analysts at Energi Danmark said in a note.

The war in Ukraine and the potential threat of a stop of Russian flows remain an important driver, however, and sudden fluctuations during the day remain a high risk, they added.

Russian gas deliveries to Europe on three key pipeline routes were steady overall on Monday morning, rising via the Nord Stream 1 and easing via Ukraine, while reverse flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline rose.

Meanwhile, Norwegian exports rose on Monday after some maintenance outages ended.

There were no reports of damage to Norwegian gas infrastructure following an earthquake in the North Sea on Monday morning, but producer Equinor has shut down its Snorre B oil platform as a precaution.

Prices in Asia, a competitor for deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes, and gasoil substitution possibilities point to a price rebound, analysts at Engie Energyscan said.

However, improving gas storage levels and continued Russian exports could send a bearish price signal and even see gas plants competing with more polluting coal-fired stations for power generation usage, they added.

Meanwhile, this week will see above normal temperatures in Europe and low-to-moderate wind speeds, but the weather will slowly turn cooler and more unsettled next week, Refinitiv meteorologist Georg Mueller said.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract fell by 0.71 euro to 78.189 euros a tonne.

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