N Sea Forties Likely To Stay Strong On Urals, Tightness-Trade

By Sherry Su Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON (Dow Jones)--North Sea Forties crude oil is likely to stay strong in the short term as healthy refinery demand, strong Russian Urals and tighter supply will continue to provide support, traders said Thursday. Forties crude oil has been strengthening over the past few sessions, with its differential largely pegged at slight discounts of 5-10 cents a barrel below benchmark Dated Brent, compared to discounts of 30-50 cents a month ago. Forties' strength, however, wasn't a surprise to the market, as "all grades are strong", said a trader. Traders said a sharp rise in the differential of Russian Urals crude oil, which is typically cheaper than Forties due to inferior quality, has lent strong support to Forties. Wednesday, Glencore bid Urals at a discount of 5 cents a barrel to Dated Brent for July 10-14 loading in North West Europe, compared to a discount of 75 cents for a deal done a week ago. Although refining margins in Europe have come off slightly recently, they are still strong enough to prompt refineries to maintain high crude runs, traders said. Meanwhile, Forties supply has shown sign of tightening, with bids having outnumbered offers in the physical market over the past few sessions. The tightness is expected to worsen as Forties output will be much lower in August than in July because of planned maintenance. Forties production is expected to be 516,000 barrels a day in August, according to BP, which operates Forties Pipeline System. This will be lower than July production of 561,000 barrels a day and the normal level of around 600,000 barrels a day. -By Sherry Su, Dow Jones Newswires; +44(0)20-7842-9329; sherry.su@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires July 01, 2010 10:20 ET (14:20 GMT)