EUROPE GAS-Prices rise on forecasts of lower Russian exports, cold weather

LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - British and European wholesale
gas prices rose on Wednesday on expectations for lower supplies
from Russia and forecasts of cold weather in coming days.

* The British day-ahead contract was 22.50 pence
higher at 181.50 p/therm by 0834 GMT.

* The British wholesale gas for October delivery
rose
by 11 pence to 212.00 p/therm.

* The October gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European
benchmark, was up 4.70 euros at 84.00 euros per
megawatt hours (MWh).

* Supplies of Russian gas via the Yamal-Europe pipeline have
increased by around 60% on Wednesday, according to data from
grid operator Gascade, after a sharp drop on the previous day.

* "We expect the exports via the Yamal pipeline to drop
again from
Oct 1 ... due to little capacity booked at Mallnow for next
month," Refinitiv analysts said.

* "Flows at Mallnow are nominated slightly up this morning,
but
still significantly below their Monday’s level," said analysts
at Engie EnergyScan.

* "This could continue to lend support to European gas
prices
today. However, technical resistances of 80.589 euros/MWh on TTF
ICE October 2021 and 49.520 euros/MWh on TTF ICE Cal 2022 could
contribute to limit gains," they added.

* A decline in Norwegian flows, due to planned maintenance
at
Emden terminal, has already been priced in and is not expected
to have effect on prices today.

* But prices also found some support as temperatures in
Britain
were expected to drop below seasonal normal levels on Wednesday
and Thursday, while next week will continue with the partially
wet and windy weather.

* However, Britain's gas system was 9 million cubic metres
(mcm)
over-supplied on Wednesday, with supply forecast at 229 million
cubic metres (mcm) and demand at around 220 mcm, National Grid
data showed.

* Peak wind power generation was forecast at around 11
gigawatts
(GW) on Wednesday, rising to almost 12.5 GW on Thursday, Elexon
data showed. Higher wind output typically reduces gas demand
from power plants.

* The benchmark Dec-21 EU carbon contract was up
0.82
euro at 62.74 euros per tonne.
(Reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin; editing by Nina Chestney)