Euro zone government bond yields rise as markets weigh rate-hike risks

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Borrowing costs across the euro zone ​nudged up ⁠on Monday, with markets wary that ​the European Central Bank could soon hike rates to contain inflation even as oil prices nudged down from recent highs.

Overall ​trading ‌conditions were thin with UK markets closed for a public holiday.

Germany's benchmark 10-year Bund yield was around ⁠2 basis points (bps) higher at 3.05%, while Italian peers rose about ⁠the same amount to 3.88%.

Rate-sensitive two-year ​bond yields were up around 2 bps across the bloc .

While oil prices were holding below last week's four-year peaks, they remain above $100 per barrel and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to ​the U.S.-Israeli ‌war with Iran - prolonging the impact of a global energy shock.

Money markets price a roughly 80% chance of a quarter-point hike at the ECB's June meeting and fully price in at least two rate increases this year.

With markets across the euro area closed on Friday for ​the May Day holiday, analysts said traders were reacting to ECB commentary since Thursday's decision to leave ‌rates unchanged.

The ECB may need to tighten policy, perhaps as soon as June, policymakers said on Friday, warning that the inflation outlook is ‌deteriorating and the risk is rising that high price growth gets entrenched.

The central bank on Thursday debated hiking rates and signalled, in both on- and off-the-record comments, that higher rates would remain on ​the agenda as it fears an energy-induced inflation spike could persist beyond a one-off impact.

"ECB sources suggested almost a ‌tightening bias and possibly a couple of rate hikes if there is no relief on energy prices," said Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann.

"However, new tariff threats for European carmakers are likely to weigh ⁠on risk ⁠sentiment and growth prospects, thereby complicating the ECB's potential response in ‌June."

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would increase tariffs on cars and trucks from the European Union ​to 25% this week ​from the previously agreed 15%, saying the bloc had not complied with ‌its trade deal with Washington.

On Monday, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said he expected the inflation rate to return to 2% in 2027-2028 after a spike this year triggered by higher energy prices. (Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)