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CHINA DATA TO GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER (1040)
China's export-focused factory activity shrank at a faster pace in December, Tuesday data showed, and analysts say worse is still to come.
COVID infections are surging across the country since China abruptly relaxed restrictions in December, causing funeral parlours to report a spike in demand for their services. International health experts predict at least one million deaths in China this year.
Manufacturing has been hard hit. China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 47.0 in December from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday, its biggest fall since February 2020, while Tuesday's figures showed the Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index(PMI) fell to 49.0.
The 50 point level separates growth from contraction.
"While we had expected things to get worse before getting better, the rapid pace of reopening may indicate a deeper and more disruptive shock on the economy in the near term," said BofA analysts in a note.
"With businesses understaffed and consumers staying wary before COVID waves peak out in most of the country, we expect economic activities to remain weak in the near term."
"That said," they add, "we continue to expect the rebound after the initial wave to be robust, especially given the pent-up consumer demand and excess savings.
FTSE ON THE CHARGE (0910 GMT)
Britain's FTSE 100 hit its highest in over six months on Tuesday, the first day of London trading for 2023, joining in with a rally in European and world stocks.
Oil and gas stocks were the blue-chip index's best performers on an index point basis; Shell and BP both gained over 4%.
European shares were also in the green for a second day in succession. The regional STOXX600 benchmark rose 1.4% to its highest in nearly three weeks, boosted by gains banking stocks, up 1.7% to their highest since February, and travel and leisure stocks which gained 2.4%.
Tuesday's main scheduled event for European traders is German inflation data, which is expected to show consumer prices rose 10.7% on the year in December, compared to an 11.3% increase in November.
Early indications also pointed to a welcome slowdown with inflation a little softer in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, and in Brandburg.
SOFT EUROPEAN OPENING (0740 GMT)
European major share benchmarks were set to open lower on Tuesday, though futures indicated the FTSE would outperform after British markets were on holiday when Monday's small opening day rally materialised.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures slid 0.67%, DAX futures shed 0.51%; and FTSE futures rose 0.11%.
Early European company news was German-flavoured. Deutsche Bank's finance chief told a local daily the lender was on track with its restructuring targets, and German chemicals distributor Brenntag BNRGn.DE said late on Monday it was ending talks with smaller U.S. rival Univar Solutions UNVR.N on a possible takeover, news which sent Brenntag's shares up 4% in pre market trading.
Inflation data for North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, showed a welcome slow-down in consumer prices pressures in December, largely due to a government initiative to lower household natural gas bills came into effect.
BP (BP.)