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BUZZ-Shire: the buy case after Arbageddon

Wed, 05th Nov 2014 15:50

** Hedge funds were burnt when Shire's deal withAbbVie fell through but 2 bulge bracket brokers now say pharmaco a compelling investment as focus shifts to cheaper valuationsand earnings growth that outstrips that of rivals.

** Hedge funds including Paulson & Co and Elliot losthundred of millions of dollars after proposed deal fell throughon Oct 15, in a fall dubbed "Arbageddon" by traders.

** Company now represents good value on a relative basis,says Goldman Sachs, adds stock to conviction "buy" list.

** Consensus "meaningfully underestimates" Shire's abilityto grow top line and shrink cost base, bank adds.

** Shire now a "compelling standalone investment" says BAML.

** Trades on 17.4 times forward earnings, a slight discountto peer group, yet projected EPS growth well ahead of the pack.Chart: http://link.reuters.com/zec43w

** Market-implied 5-year average annual EPS growth of 16.2pct compares to 8.5 pct for peers, according to StarMine.

** 12-month forward EPS growth also significantly outstripspeers. Chart on EPS growth: http://link.reuters.com/wec43w

** Shares are up 21.5 pct since bottoming on Oct 16 the dayafter the collapse of the deal. Shire still up 45 pct this yearand 2nd best performer on the FTSE. (RM: alasdair.pal.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

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