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April 1 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of
markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your
thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
HOPEFULLY NOT THE CRUELEST MONTH (0721 GMT)
April is said to be the cruelest month so investors in
global equities, emerging from the worst quarter in a year, will
be hoping the adage doesn't hold true for them. Indeed, last
April, world stocks gained over 10% after March mayhem.
In any case, they are starting off on a firmer footing,
bolstered by a strong close on Wall Street (U.S. stocks actually
enjoyed a robust Q1 too), President Joe Biden's $2 trillion
infrastructure spending proposal and upbeat factory surveys from
Asia on Thursday. European shares are higher.
Signs are the U.S. and Chinese recovery will bolster the
world economy -- Wednesday data showed U.S. private employers
boosted hiring in March as more Americans were vaccinated
against COVID-19. Data due on Friday (when many markets are
closed) are expected to show 647,000 jobs added in March,
adding to February's 379,000 rise.
So will Treasury yields spoil the party? Ten-year yields
rose 80 basis points in Q1,their largest quarterly
rise since end-2016. The Fed has pledged to keep rates near zero
for some time; markets price a 25 basis-point rate hike in
December 2022.
Things are going less well in Europe with France entering
another month-long lockdown. The euro is near five-month lows,
German yields rose 30 bps in Q1 but have since eased.
The much-needed EU recovery fund has meanwhile hit
roadblocks, with a German constitutional court looking into new
legal challenges against the plan.
Elsewhere, oil prices are up almost $1 on expectations the
OPEC+ producers group would keep production curbs in place.
And for all the companies hit by chip shortages, there was
good news as Taiwan's TSMC announced plans for a $100 billion
investment to increase capacity. It comes days after Intel Corp
announced a $20 billion expansion plan.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets
on Thursday:
- UK retailer Next reported a halving in annual pretax
profit but forecast a bounceback. French food
services group Sodexo beat first-half profit margin and expects
second-half revenue to expand
- German retail sales up 1.2% m/m in February
- Final PMIs everywhere due out.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick
Harker speaks 1700; Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan 2205
- Weekly U.S. jobless claims, ISM manufacturing data due out
- On FRIDAY, U.S. non-farm payrolls is due out.
(Sujata Rao)
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MORNING CALL: U.S. SPENDING PLAN, FRANCE lockdown (0540 GMT)
After the STOXX 600 index ended the first quarter
of 2021 with a 7.8% rise, European shares are seen on the black
as the first session of the new quarter kicks off.
U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday outlined a plan to
restart the economy, including spending on roads, railways,
broadband, clean energy and semiconductor
manufacture.
But capping the optimism, Macron ordered France into its
third national lockdown as he sought to push back a third wave
of COVID-19 infections.
Eyes will also be on EZ manufacturing PMI numbers, which are
expected to be holding up well.
"Manufacturing PMI has been one of the main bright spots
amidst the gloom of the economic rebound in Europe, as
businesses adapt to the restrictions around them, and show
resilience in the face of a changed environment," writes Michael
Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK.
Financial spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open
11 points higher at 6,725, Frankfurt's DAX to open 16 points
higher at 15,024 and Paris' CAC to open 2 points lower at
6,065.
(Joice Alves)
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