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UPDATE 3-Trade wars, Brexit are 'profit warning', Dutch king says

Tue, 17th Sep 2019 14:15

* King addresses combined houses of parliament

* Dutch are running budget surpluses, national debt is 50%
of GDP

* Spending increases in housing, healthcare, immigration

* ECB's Draghi advised Netherlands, Germany to spend more
(Adds details on spending increases)

By Toby Sterling and Bart H. Meijer

AMSTERDAM, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Trade wars and the threat of
Brexit were acting as a "profit warning" for the Dutch economy,
and the government intended to increase investments to protect
its future, Dutch King Willem-Alexander told parliament on
Tuesday, in an address prepared by the government.

The address came as Prime Minister Mark Rutte's government
released details of its 2020 budget, which featured spending
increases on healthcare and housing. The government also
confirmed it plans to create a national investment fund next
year to take advantage of its ability to borrow at negative
rates.

"The approaching Brexit casts its shadow forward," the
monarch said in his annual speech. "It's a profit warning for
the short term and the long term, that forces us to consider how
the Netherlands will earn money in the future and remain a
country with good social services."

The Dutch government estimates it will lose 1.2% of GDP by
2030 if Britain, a key trading partner, leaves the European
Union.

Dutch GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.8% this year and
1.5% in 2020, according to forecasts by the economic policy
office CPB.

The government also confirmed plans to keep the corporate
tax at 25% in 2020 and lower it to 21.7% in 2021. It also said
it would reduce some tax deductions that have allowed
multinationals such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and
Philips to cut their Dutch corporate tax bill to zero.

The moves to increase spending are modest: the country will
still run an estimated surplus of about 0.3% of gross domestic
product, down from a 1.2% surplus this year. This comes a week
after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged Germany
and the Netherlands to spend more to avert a downturn in the
euro zone.

Among key spending increases earmarked for 2020 were 350
million euros for affordable housing, 300 million euros on youth
healthcare programs, 134 million euros for immigration and
asylum, 61 million euros on the judiciary and 51 million euros
for defence.

Willem-Alexander said the government had a "growth agenda"
and would present a draft plan next year for the national
investment fund, which would target education and
infrastructure.

"National debt is under control and the (tax) burden can be
lowered," he said in his address to both houses of Parliament
gathered in the 13th-century Hall of Knights in the Hague.

After years of austerity following the global financial
crisis, the Dutch government is forecast to have a national debt
of just 47.6% of GDP in 2020, well below European budget
requirements.

(Reporting by Toby Sterling; Editing by AndreLarry King and
Lisa Shumaker)

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