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By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Silvia Antonioli
LAUSANNE, Switzerland, April 22 (Reuters) - Low crude priceswill trigger consolidation in the oil industry but a new bullmarket might arrive much sooner than expected given the hugescale of capital and workforce withdrawal in the sector, aformer boss of oil major BP said.
"The actions the industry is taking to withdraw capital arelaying the seeds for the next bull market," Tony Hayward toldthe FT Commodities Summit.
"The peak of U.S. shale supply has arrived - earlier thananticipated ... The supply chain in the U.S. has been decimated... It will take several years to take activity back," Haywardsaid.
He compared current developments to the situation at the endof the 1990s when oil companies slashed investments, whichultimately sparked an oil price rally to record highs in2003-2007.
Hayward now serves as chairman of commodities giant Glencore and chief executive of mid-sized oil producer Genel, which is active in Iraqi Kurdistan.
"Certainly there will be consolidation in Kurdistan as much as in other places. We may be active in consolidating and we maybe consolidated. We can play both ways," he said.
He said that although the oil industry would see a wave ofconsolidation, major deals like the $70 billion acquisition byRoyal Dutch/Shell of BG would be difficult torepeat.
"There are relatively few easy targets ... It doesn't appearto me that BP is a willing target."
He said he believed OPEC's strategy was working and that theproducer group, which at its last meeting in November decidedagainst cutting output despite a sharp drop in oil prices, wouldultimately regain market share.
He added that even if Iran and the West agreed a dealcurbing Tehran's nuclear programme, it would take several yearsfor oil firms to agree contracts and start investing in Iran'ssanctions-hit oil industry - meaning the country would be unableto ramp up exports steeply in the next couple of years. (Editing by Dale Hudson)
