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UK North Sea oil output to resume decline after brief respite

Mon, 26th Mar 2018 11:02

* North Sea production has recovered slightly since 2015

* New fields, more drilling helped reverse declines

* Oil production peaked in 1999 at 2.6 million bpd

By Ron Bousso

LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) - The UK North Sea is set toresume a two-decade decline in oil production next year,snapping a brief period of growth since 2015, consultancyBernstein said in a report on Monday.

Production in the North Sea, home to the Brent global crudebenchmark, peaked in 1999 at 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd)and had steadily slipped until 2014, when it hit around 800,000bpd. In the past four years, output has stabilised or evenrecovered.

The halt to the decline stemmed from the start-up of severalnew fields such as the BP-operated Quad 204 west of theShetland Islands and Enquest's Kraken field east ofthem.

The revival was due also to improved output from existingfields as operators slowed the natural decline of reservoirs byaccelerating drilling around wells, a process known as infilldrilling, and ran platforms better, Bernstein said.

Decline rates improved from around 18 percent in 2012 to 8percent in 2016 and 5 percent in 2017, the report said. Outputfrom fields naturally decreases as they age and their resourcesdwindle.

"The stability and even growth from 2015 to 2018 will provetemporary in nature for this 1 million bpd basin," the reportsaid.

Production from the UK North Sea, considered the world'sfirst deepwater oil basin, is expected to grow by 4 percent, orroughly 40,000 bpd, in 2018 before declining from 2019 to 2021.

Infill drilling sharply accelerated following a drop in rigrates in the wake of the 2014 oil price downturn. In 2016, 54wells were completed, more than double the number in 2012.

At the same time, the production efficiency of wells andplatforms increased to 73 percent in 2016 from 60 percent in2012, accounting for a 200,000-bpd gain in output over theperiod, according to Bernstein.

The decline in output has had a profound impact on North Seaproducers.

Nimble, often privately owned companies such as SiccarPoint, Neptune and Chrysaor that specialise in extending thelife of ageing fields are gradually replacing large producerssuch as Royal Dutch Shell and BP, which were among thefirst to develop the basin but see less opportunity there today.

(Reporting by Ron Bousso)

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