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European refiners get rare boost from late-year U.S. demand

Fri, 26th Sep 2014 12:32

* Big slate of refinery maintenance in U.S., Canada

* Export rush bucks long-term trend

By Libby George

LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - A late-year rush for gasoline inthe United States is creating unexpected demand for importedcargoes and giving struggling European refineries a welcomeautumn boost.

An extensive slate of refinery maintenance on the U.S. GulfCoast and in Canada has sapped gasoline availability, leading toa 70-percent increase in cargoes sailing west from Europe thismonth over levels in August - usually the time of peak demand.

"What we're seeing now is not normal," one trader said. "Thestrength in the United States is dramatic. There are a lot ofbarrels going over."

Traders said the U.S. shortage could get worse as demand inWest Africa and the Middle East is also now attracting Europeancargoes.

The pull bucks a trend of lower U.S. gasoline imports fromEurope, which fell almost 40 percent between 2008 and 2013,according to Eurostat data, as demand has fallen and as U.S.refineries have benefited from cheaper shale oil.

The longer-term drop in exports to the United States hashit European refiners' profits hard, leading to a string ofclosures, and causing a number of trading houses to cut theirgasoline desks. But the current spike in exports showsoccasional opportunities still emerge.

A string of gasoline-producing units at major Texasrefineries are currently in maintenance, including fluidcatalytic crackers (FCCs) at ExxonMobil's 300,000 barrelper day (bpd) Beaumont refinery and a crude distillation unit atTotal's 225,000 bpd Port Arthurrefinery.

The works have cut gasoline availability on theheavily-populated Atlantic Coast that is supplied from the Gulfvia pipelines.

Further exacerbating the problem is a shutdown at Canada's300,000 bpd Saint John refinery, a key supplier to the New YorkHarbor delivery point of the RBOB gasoline contract.

FEELING THE SQUEEZE

The shortness has contributed to a jump in the October RBOBgasoline contract to a near a 20 cent premium over the Novembercontract, the highest in two years. [ID: nL2N0RQ16S]

So far this month, 24 cargoes have been booked to go westfrom Europe, a total of nearly 900,000 tonnes, or 70 percentmore than the 14 cargoes booked in the same period duringAugust, typically the peak time for U.S. summer driving demand.

"It's been a strange year ... the arbitrage (from Europe tothe United States) was always shut, and now it seems quiteopen," another trader said.

On Friday, refineries in Europe were making almost $14 onevery barrel of gasoline they produced, according to Reutersdata, roughly double the level this time last year. Totalrefining margins are 60 percent above the average for 2014 sofar.

The biggest problem for European refineries now is simplyfinding the barrels.

West Africa had its own rush for cargoes that saw nearly twodozen vessels booked this month, and Europe's own maintenanceseason includes FCC closures at Shell's 404,000 bpdPernis refinery in Rotterdam, Valero's 270,000 bpdPembroke refinery in Wales, and ExxonMobil's 240,000 bpd PortJerome plant in France.

But despite the current rush, most traders still think itwill be a brief respite for European refiners before they arehit with renewed competition from plants opening in the MiddleEast and Asia at the end of this year.

"There is definitely a pull, but we don't think this is thebeginning of a four-week rally," said Robert Campbell, head ofoil products research at Energy Aspects. "Into next year, thingsare going to be pretty horrifying." (Reporting By Libby George; editing by David Sheppard andKeiron Henderson)

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