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ANALYSIS-Gushing European energy IPO pipeline faces muted investor appetite

Fri, 14th Jun 2019 07:32

* Companies worth $41 bln seen as IPO candidates

* Shares of oil and gas producers struggled in recent years

* Oil price outlook, environmental concerns weigh on IPOs

* Graphic: European energy IPOs https://tmsnrt.rs/2X83g24

By Ron Bousso and Shadia Nasralla

LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - Europe's oil and gas sector isbuilding up a crowded pipeline for stock market flotations, butinvestor appetite is limited given painful experiences after thelast oil price crash and a backlash against fossil fuels.

Norway's Okea, Britain's Neptune, Chrysaor, Siccar Point andSpirit Energy are all either actively preparing or expected toplan an initial public offering (IPO) in the short term, as arerecently merged German-Russian Wintershall Dea and Israeli-ownedIthaca Energy.

Oil and gas companies with a combined value of around $41billion are seen as candidates for listing in the coming years,according to estimates by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Shares of oil and gas companies historically rise after acrash in oil prices as investors bet on a recovery in prices.

But the recovery following the 2014 downturn, the worst indecades, has been slow and bumpy amid surging U.S. shaleproduction and wider uncertainty over long-term oil demand asthe world transitions to cleaner energy.

"IPOs tend to come when markets are sizzling hot andvaluations are high – that is not the case for the energy sectorcurrently," said Bertrand Born, portfolio manager for globalequities at German asset manager DWS.

Listed oil and gas companies have struggled in recent years,underperforming in many cases oil prices and other sectors, andoffering a tough backdrop for any company contemplating a publiclisting.

In a sign of the challenging conditions, Okea on Thursdaylowered its offered price per share and delayed its listing onthe Oslo stock exchange.

Sam Laidlaw, executive chairman of Neptune, backed byprivate equity firms Carlyle Group and CVC CapitalPartners, said he saw no time pressure for his company's IPO.

"Lower returns at $100 a barrel than at $60 raised concernsamong capital markets. There is less appetite from generalistinvestors. We don't see anything that's IPO ready yet," he toldReuters this month.

"Some will consolidate, some will never make it to market,some will take longer. If we wanted to be first, there's plentyof time still."

Many of the IPO candidates, including Neptune, were set upin the wake of the 2014 crash by private-equity funds seeking tobuy cheap and sell high when the oil price recovers.

But nearly five years on, the going is still tough for thesector.

In the first quarter of 2019, European IPOs slumped to theirlowest since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, asuncertainty over Brexit and the U.S.-China trade dispute leftcompanies not wanting to take their chances.

UNIQUE STORY

To succeed, companies will have to offer investors somethingunique, says Jon Clark, regional transaction leader at EY.

"The European oil and gas IPO landscape looks like it willshift from famine to feast and the potential IPO candidates needto think how they will best position themselves," Clark said.

Wintershall-Dea is the largest producer of the group, aimingto boost its output by around 30% to at least 750,000 barrels ofoil equivalent per day by 2023, in a portfolio stretching fromBrazil to Europe and Russia and the Middle East.

Chrysaor, backed by Harbour and EIG, is the largest oil andgas producer in the North Sea after acquiring large portfoliosfrom Royal Dutch Shell and ConocoPhillips.

Neptune has assets in a number of regions and is focused ongas, seen as the least-polluting fossil fuel.

In addition to returns, environmental, social and governance(ESG) issues are an ever-growing concern for fund managers andtheir clients.

Unlike any other time, investors are likely to question acompany seeking to list on its role in the transition to a lowercarbon economy following the 2015 Paris climate agreement tolimit global warming.

"Sentiment in the market is not necessarily as strong as itused to be for oil and gas assets... we're moving towards alower carbon economy," said Les Thomas, chief executive ofIthaca, owned by Israel's Delek Group, which lastmonth acquired most of Chevron's North Sea assets for $2billion.

Greek group Energean was one of a handful of energycompanies to list in London in recent years, betting on Israeligas production and long-term offtake agreements. Its shares haverisen over 90% since listing last year.

"Oil price upside is not enough anymore. You have to offerinvestors at least partial, if not complete, security of areturn on their investment regardless of commodity prices,"Energean Chief Executive Mathios Rigas said.

"It's not enough to say I have this amazing geologist orknowledge of a basin or promise to find oil in frontier areas.To continue investing as an energy company only in oil, from anESG perspective, is suicidal."

(Reporting by Ron Bousso and Shadia Nasralla;Editing by Susan Fenton)

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