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LIVE MARKETS-Cautiously waiting for multiples to grow

Thu, 16th Apr 2020 11:51

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters. You can share your thoughts with Thyagaraju Adinarayan
(thyagaraju.adinarayan@thomsonreuters.com), Joice Alves (joice.alves@thomsonreuters.com) and
Julien Ponthus (julien.ponthus@thomsonreuters.com) in London and Stefano Rebaudo
(stefano.rebaudo@thomsonreuters.com) in Milan.



CAUTIOUSLY WAITING FOR MULTIPLES TO GROW (1051 GMT)
While the mood for many investors is currently to stay put and cautious, there's some
expectation that the huge amount of stimulus cash flooding the market will make some stock
multiples grow further.
Italy's Kairos Partner Sgr, which had 7.2 billon euros worth of asset under management at
the end of 2019, prouds itself on having bought stocks on lows a month ago, after the STOXX600
index lost more than 35% in less than a month.
"Everything tumbled too quickly and it was clear that investors would have closed their
positions and then share prices would have bounced back," chief investment officer, Guido Maria
Brera, says in a message to its customers.
"Now we feel like being a bit more prudent," he adds.
"But the injection of liquidity in the system has been so strong that we will have an
expansion of multiples in the businesses which will be the winners of this huge pandemic."
Kairos, which invests mainly in Italy and Europe and is part of the Julius Baer group, says
that too much gas in the engine of the economy could trigger hyper-inflation, while too little
gas could lead to a deep and prolonged recession.
"Everybody hopes this huge amount of liquidity will be the right quantity of gas, but we
cannot remove the concerns about a miscalculation, so now we must be cautious."
(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****


U.S. JOBS: IGNORING THE BAD NEWS 4 TIMES IN A ROW? (0945 GMT)
Another week and another horrid set of data is expected for U.S. jobs in about three hours.
The Reuters survey gives a grim expectation of 5.1 million, bringing the cumulative
unemployment benefits claims to more than 20 million since the week ending March 21.
But while the pace of job destruction seems terrifying, Wall Street actually posted big
gains the last three times data showed massive layoffs.
"Over the last three weeks where we’ve seen a stunning 16.8 million people file, the S&P 500
has been up +6.24%, +2.28%, +3.41% in each of these sessions", Deutsche Bank analysts write in
their 'Early Morning Reid' note.
So even though DB economists believe the country is on track for a post WWII record of a 17%
unemployment rate, what to expect as a market reaction is anyone's guess.
For Connor Campbell at Spreadex, "the markets have avoided dealing with the unemployment
crisis" as either talks of fiscal or Fed stimulus or the oil provided investors with a
"distraction" from the figures.
Market "may not be so lucky this time out – but what will that actually mean for trading?",
the analyst asks. Anyhow, here's how the S&P ended the session the last three weeks:
For today's curtain raiser, see: WRAPUP 1-U.S. weekly jobless claims seen underscoring
deepening economic slump

(Julien Ponthus)
*****

CHART: NO MORE FRESH LOWS? (1005 GMT)
The bounce back from mid-March lows has been staggering even as markets started this week on
a weak note.
BofA recently said "equities will probably struggle from here but we do not expect new
lows." The U.S. bank suggests buying quality credit in the near-term and owning equities and
gold for the long-term.
A line chart of the S&P 500 comparing the 2008 GFC and the coronacrisis shows divergence
from the path:




(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****


OPENING SNAPSHOT: RISK ON (0740 GMT)
European bourses bounce back after yesterday's rout and the underlying sector moves indicate
risk-on mood among investors as cyclicals are outperforming defensives.
Travel & leisure stocks are at the forefront of the rally after easyJet (+8.3%) said it can
survive a lengthy fleet grounding.
A few other not-so-bad news in corporate updates and steadying oil prices are also lifting
the mood. The pan European STOXX 600 index is up 1.2% with travel and leisure, banks
and tech leading gainers.
In single stocks, the volatile Cineworld (+11.1%) shares top the index followed by easyJet.
Utilities and online food retailers such as Ocado were among the fallers.

(Joice Alves)
*****



ON OUR RADAR: WELCOME TO EARNINGS SEASON (0655 GMT)
Futures are pointing to a higher opening for European shares as investors are hoping the
coronavirus outbreak might be peaking soon. A slight bounceback in crude oil price is also
supporting the 1% to 1.3% rally.
In part the optimism could also be attributed to some not so bad corporate updates:
Germany's Zalando said it is optimistic for the second quarter, EasyJet says
it is able to survive a lengthy fleet grounding, Avast says Q1 was in line with expectations.
In the health care space, BioMérieux and Draegerwerk have seen exceptional order spike due
to corona demand.
Meanwhile, chocolate maker Barry Callebaut has tapped a 1 billion euro revolving
credit facility to beat the virus cash crunch.
Other significant earnings news: Schroders sees Q1 assets fall from record highs and Ashmore
AUM plunges due to selloff in markets.

More corporate headlines:
French power group EDF sees sharp drop in nuclear output
Ryanair sees price war fuelling rapid air travel recovery
Italy's Saipem pulls outlook on coronavirus uncertainty
Barry Callebaut draws on credit facility to cushion COVID-19 impact
UK banks have ample funds to help pandemic-hit economy
Shell deepens carbon reduction plans

(Joice Alves and Stefano Rebaudo)
*****


HOPE OVER DATA (0545 GMT)
Futures are pointing to a higher opening for European bourses as investors are hopeful
coronavirus outbreak might be peaking across the region.
Oil price is also helping. The U.S. crude rebounded from near-20-year lows in the previous
days on hopes that a big build-up in U.S. inventories may lead producers to deepen output cuts.

Meantime, stock markets in Asia and U.S. slumped, following a slew of coronavirus-driven
weak data and gloomy economic outlook.
Dire data is coming also from the UK where retail spending slumped by more than a quarter
during the first two weeks of lockdown measures. But that was highly expected.

(Joice Alves)
*****?





(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)

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