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By Victoria Waldersee
LISBON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Retailers worldwide have never
had more reason to pack warehouses to the brim and keep stock
closer to shoppers who continue to buy a record number of items
online.
As well as stocking up for Christmas and any potential
coronavirus-related lockdowns, Europe and the UK will soon have
Brexit to deal with.
British companies are bringing as much as possible into the
country before potential disruptions in January, while their
European counterparts are piling up goods in pan-European
distribution hubs close to ports like Hamburg or Rotterdam.
E-commerce management platforms including ZigZag and
Global-e-- which serve Forever 21, Boohoo, Gap,
Selfridges and Hugo Boss --- said around 30-35% of UK
retailers' sales are to customers in continental Europe. Brands
popular in the UK like Chinese e-commerce retailer Shein or
American sportswear brand Under Armour are currently
stocked exclusively in the EU, ZigZag CEO Al Gerrie said.
The rise in e-commerce throughout the year as a consequence
of the pandemic had already pushed warehouse space to the limit.
"Most carriers already operated at Christmas volumes during
the first wave. If you now add the Christmas effect on top, it's
just getting even more challenging," CFO of European e-commerce
retailer Zalando, David Schroeder, said in November.
Demand for storage space after Brexit could shoot up even
further as retailers seek to avoid customs checks and, if no
deal is struck, tariffs.
"Retailers won't want to be caught out again," said Nick
Cook, head of Europe for warehouse owner GLP, referring to the
potential supply shocks Brexit could bring. Their warehouses,
covering 3.3 million square metres in continental Europe and
700,000 in the UK leased to companies including H&M,
Amazon and DHL are currently 97% occupied.
STOCKING UP
In the UK, leasing volumes for commercial warehouse space
are at record levels of 32.5 million square feet and projected
to grow to 40 million by the end of the year, according to real
estate advisory firm CBRE.
Logistics operator Europa Worldwide Group, which delivers
goods for retailers and third parties like DHL and Amazon, is
holding 60% more e-commerce products than this time last year,
the company said.
Shoe producer Vivo Barefoot said it was shipping as many
shoes as possible from its Portugal manufacturing site to its UK
warehouse ahead of December.
M&S, Next, and Primark said earlier
this year their warehouses were still holding unsold summer
clothing.
Even after the pandemic, demand for warehouse space is
expected to remain high as customers now used to ordering online
continue to do so. E-commerce generally requires around three
times as much warehouse capacity as physical retail, according
to figures from Prologis.
SPREADING OUT
Warehouse developer Panattoni Chief Executive Robert
Dobrzycki said pandemic border closures spurred retailers to
separate stock by country instead of stocking for several
countries in one shared warehouse space.
"We're seeing a move away from just-in-time logistics
strategies and increasingly towards just-in-case," said Andrew
Jones of property firm Londonmetric in a November
earnings call. "Not only in the period we're all living through
at the moment, but also the period we're going to live through
post-Brexit."
Retailers could also seek to split logistics operations
across the UK and EU to avoid charges.
Even with a deal, cross-border traders will have to pay
charges on goods travelling between the UK and EU and track
every order with commercial paperwork. Britain’s logistics
industry estimates that 250 million customs declarations a year
will be needed for EU trade.
Holding stock in both markets would eliminate that problem
and is a solution the biggest players have opted for. Amazon
said in July that from December 28 onwards it would no
longer distribute goods for merchants between the UK and the EU
– instead, they would have to send their stock separately to
fulfilment centres in both regions.
Meanwhile other industry players are beginning to discuss
options like converting agricultural buildings, empty space on
run-down high streets or vacant basements into warehouse space,
according to research by firms including Savills and JLL
.
But the construction and conversion process is slow and has
been hit by delays during the pandemic and many plans are still
a pipe dream.
"At this point, you may just need to choose your market,"
Tim Crighton, head of EMEA at real estate advisory Cushman &
Wakefield, said.
Parker Lane Group, a UK-based returns facility with offices
in Barcelona and Warsaw, said some clients were positioning
goods to mitigate tariffs but others said very few of their
customers had made any arrangements yet.
"Retailers haven't pulled the trigger just yet, because of
the uncertainty around Brexit," Al Gerrie of ZigZag said.
By the time they do, there may not be much space left to lease.
"If people want warehousing today, you're looking at older,
second-hand, more functionally awkward space, without the same
height or loading doors of newbuilds,” Paul Weston, head of
Prologis for the UK, said.
(Reporting by Victoria Waldersee in Lisbon, Michael Kahn in
Prague, Sonya Dowsett in Madrid; Additional reporting by James
Davey; Editing by Vanessa O'Connell, Elaine Hardcastle)
