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Tuesday preview: BP, Lloyds, IMPs ...

Mon, 30th Apr 2012 16:01

There are plenty of big names reporting on Tuesday but the two most likely to catch they eye are BP and Lloyds Banking.Starting with integrated oil giant BP, recently returned to the dividend standard, Charles Stanley's Tony Shepard thinks first quarter net income will be flat at $5.4bn compared to a year earlier, though up by $1bn on the fourth quarter figure. The quarterly dividend should be maintained at 8 cents, but Shepard reckons that if BP can deliver on its medium term cash flow targets "there appears scope to increase the dividend further but it requires oil prices to remain at or above $100/bbl".Average Brent oil prices have remained elevated, Shepard notes, and are about 12% gher than they were a year ago, although US natural gas prices have slumped by about 30%, close to 10-year lows."In BP's Downstream [refining] activities there will be more transparency in the results from individual businesses and the Refining Marker Margin has risen to $11.6/bbl up from Q4's $9.1/bbl and $11/bbl, a year ago," Shepard added.For the year as a whole Shepard is expecting production volumes to be flat but the first quarter will be important to see what progress BP is making on its targets, he reckons.As for Lloyds, Credit Suisse thinks the focus will be on the pace of net interest margin compression and whether there has been any change to guidance at the time of its full year results of a net interest margin in 2012 of 1.92 percentage points. "As important will be any updates on the Verde disposal and progress on deleveraging," the broker adds. Project Verde is Lloyds' project name for its European Commission-enforced disposal of a number of branches.Last Friday, the company had to end its exclusivity agreement with the Co-operative Group, its preferred bidder for the branches. "Given the renewed interest in the Verde business shown by NBNK, LBG [Lloyds Banking Group] will now consider detailed discussions with other parties but only once LBG is satisfied that any proposal is likely to achieve the appropriate regulatory clearances and offers greater value and/or certainty to LBG shareholders against its alternative option of an Initial Public Offering," Lloyds said in a statement.On Monday, the day before its results announcement, the UK banking group quashed rumours that it has received a 'multi-billion' pound offer for its life assurance, pensions and savings business, Scottish Widows, from Edmund Truell, the founder of private equity firm Duke Street. The London Evening Standard newspaper said that despite Chief Executive Antonio Horta-Osorio ruling out a sale of the unit last year, regulatory capital pressures have made the potential sale "an attractive option". However the offer, which was thought to value Scottish Widows at around £5-6bn, was quickly denied by the High Street lender.Also updating the market on Tuesday is household goods supplier Reckitt Benckiser. The consensus forecast is for organic sales growth, excluding the pharmaceuticals business, of 3.8%, taking first quarter sales to £2,180m. "The contribution from Pharma is expected to decelerate to 5.9%, resulting in consensus expectations for total group organic growth of 3.9%," notes Credit Suisse.The Swiss bank is expecting "sustained anaemic mmarket growth" in Western Europe and North America to weigh down Reckitt's performance, "compounded by intense competition in Home (highlighted by P&G) [Procter & Gamble] and a soft cold & flu season.""P&G's soft results last week highlighted that mature market growth in Home is flat, and a potential return to heavy promotion would bode for a particularly challenging 2012," the broker suggested.Cigarettes producer Imperial Tobacco (IMPs) releases interim results, with Panmure Gordon forecasting first half tobacco revenues rising 3% to £3,403m. Market consensus is for operating profit of £1,520m."We forecast a slight decrease in tobacco operating profit margins, declining from 42.8% to 42.4%, as the company continues to invest in its 'Total Tobacco' portfolio. We forecast 2% growth in tobacco operating profits to £1,441m. Including Logistics, group operating profits should rise 3% to £1,527m (Imperial consensus £1,520m). We expect lower interest costs and a lower number of shares in issue to contribute to 5.6% EPS growth to 93.3p (Imperial consensus 92.7p)," Panmure Gordon added."Clearly the economic climate in Spain and much of Europe remains challenging and we look for an indication of whether the improved volume and revenue trends have continued into H2 2012 [first half of fiscal 2012]. In addition we expect investor attention to be focused on the degree to which the company's strategy of investing in its brands is gaining traction," Panmure Gordon said.Internet and catalogue home shopping specialist N. Brown's full year results should see the firm announcing profit before tax of £94.8m or thereabouts on sales of £743.4m, if the analysts following the stock are correct. Earnings per share are seen easing slightly to 26.08p but the dividend is tipped to rise to 12.91p from 12.41p the year before."As with all apparel retailers, we expect current trading to be relatively poor, reflecting the tough Easter/warm weather comparative and poor current weather conditions," says Peel Hunt.On the economic front it is a big week for Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys for April, and Tuesday sees the first one, for manufacturing, released.Expectations are for the reading to slide to 51.3 from March's 52.1, which would still leave the index above the 50 level which marks the cross-over point between a contraction and expansion in activity. INTERIMSImperial Tobacco GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEIngenious Entertainment VCT 1 F Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 F Shares, Interior Services Group, NWF Group, WolseleyQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEMercantile Investment Trust (The), Torchmark Corp., Verizon CommunicationsINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSAuto Sales (US) (15:00)Construction Spending (US) (15:00)ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)FINALSBrown (N.) GroupIMSSIrish Continental Group Units, Lloyds Banking Group, Man Group, National Express GroupAGMSMan Group, Rentokil Initial, XstrataUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSPMI Manufacturing (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAll Leisure Group, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, Lavendon GroupQ1BP, CSR, Reckitt Benckiser Group JH
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