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* Forecast for lost 2020 airline revenue rises to $252 bln
* Previous IATA forecast was for $113 bln in revenue losses
* IATA sees airline revenues 44% lower than in 2019
* Says half of companies face collapse in weeks without help
(Adds detail, analyst comment)
By Tim Hepher and Sarah Young
LONDON/PARIS, March 24 (Reuters) - Global airlines urged
governments on Tuesday to speed up bailouts to rescue the air
transport industry as they doubled their estimate of 2020
revenue losses from the coronavirus crisis to more than $250
billion.
"We clearly need massive action very quickly and urgently,"
Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the International Air
Transport Association (IATA), told reporters.
With planes unable to fly because of travel restrictions,
compounded by a plunge in demand over fears of contagion,
airlines worldwide have grounded most of their fleets, and many
have said they need government support to survive.
The industry is now contemplating months without flying.
Ryanair, Europe's biggest airline by passenger numbers,
said on Tuesday it did not expect to operate flights in April or
May.
Many will not survive such a hammer blow to their finances.
IATA said that without government support, up to half of
airlines face possible bankruptcy in the coming weeks.
"We have a liquidity crisis coming at full speed - no
revenues and costs still on our (books), so we desperately need
some cash," de Juniac said.
Airline stocks have been among the biggest casualties of a
financial market rout sparked by fears of a global recession,
but Vertical Research Partners analyst Robert Stallard said the
full extent of coronavirus's impact on the aerospace industry
could turn out to be even worse than current dire forecasts.
"Hence our recommendation that investors continue to avoid
the sector until we see airline stability," he said.
IATA chief economist Brian Pearce said European airlines
were most at risk, with airline capacity in the European region
forecast to be down 90% for the second quarter of 2020.
Analysts have said indebted Norwegian Air is one of
the most vulnerable, but it was helped by a small government
cash injection on Tuesday as it began talks with creditors
worried about its liquidity.
IATA broadly stuck to a forecast made last week that
government bailouts worth about $200 billion were needed, even
as it more than doubled its estimate for revenue losses in 2020
to $250 billion, compared with the $113 billion forecast it made
just 2-1/2 weeks ago. That would represent a 44% decline on
2019's income.
UNCONDITIONAL HELP
De Juniac, a former Air France-KLM boss, brushed aside a
growing debate about whether relief for airlines should come
with strings attached, such as new commitments on climate goals.
But he said the airline industry would continue efforts
already under way to curb emissions once the crisis recedes.
"We are in an emergency situation. It's no time for
requirements. I'm sorry for that. We need a full speed massive
rescue package now," de Juniac said.
With airlines at the front of bailout queues, green
advocates fear climate action may lose momentum.
In the United States, Republicans have opposed providing
bailouts to passenger and cargo carriers, proposing help in the
form of $58 billion in loans and saying the government could
demand stock, options or other equity in return.
IATA, which groups some 280 airlines including most of the
world's largest network carriers, said signs of a deep recession
could delay a recovery in airline travel - in contrast with the
fast rebound seen after previous epidemics.
That could mean "more of a U-shaped than V-shaped recovery,"
Pearce said, referring in the latter instance to the shape of
the graph of air travel indicators seen after the SARS outbreak
in 2003.
IATA says 2.7 million jobs are supported by the airline
industry, with tens of thousands already being furloughed.
"There are a very large number of airlines that are more or
less breaking even and ... facing losses. Those airlines are
very fragile," Pearce said.
(Reporting by Sarah Young, Laurence Frost; writing by Costas
Pitas, Tim Hepher and Sarah Young; Editing by Paul Sandle, Mark
Potter)
