Last checked at 
* European shares reverse course
* STOXX flat after hitting one month low
* Earnings updates in focus
* Wall Street futures slip
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"LIGHT-AT-THE-END-OF-THE-TUNNEL VIEW" HELPS EUROPE (1146 GMT)
Traders look to be struggling somewhat to identify the very reasons behind today's price
action that saw the STOXX 600 and other European benchmarks reverse course and turn slightly
positive after a pretty risk-off start this morning.
There is no clear news trigger but a mix of factors such as some good-looking findings
concerning the AstraZeneca's vaccine and the underlying belief that authorities would led more
support if the second wave of COVID gets really nasty and that the recovery won't be derailed.
"What I do see in U.S. Treasuries and equities is that people persist with these
light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel view... I don't think anybody expects a new recession," a trader
says.
"I think that's a fertile background for risk," he adds.
Meantime news broke that independent UK scientists found that AstraZeneca's Oxford COVID-19
vaccine accurately follows the genetic instructions programmed into it by its developers to
successfully provoke a strong immune response.
Two other traders say this could also have helped improve the mood on markets following
another setback for the drugmaker in Brazil.
(Danilo Masoni and Stefano Rebaudo)
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MORE WORRIES ABOUT A CONTESTED U.S. VOTE (1140 GMT)
It’s not just the pandemic to dampen risk sentiment as worries about a contested outcome of
the U.S. presidential election are back stronger than before.
“The ability for either candidate to seize upon accusations of foreign interference is
heightened and raises the probability of a contested outcome and protracted period of
uncertainty following,” a Saxo Bank research note says.
Therefore we should expect “a choppy trading environment” until such a risk has passed.
U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday that Russia and Iran
have both tried to interfere with the 2020 presidential election.
Saxo Bank also mentions the possibility that the race is closer than polls currently
indicate which could mean that a clear-cut scenario is unlikely. This would obviously rise
chances of one of the two candidates to challenge the result of the vote.
A fiscal stimulus is increasingly unlikely to be approved before the election as
“Republicans in the Senate have limited appetite” to give a green light to a larger package.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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HOW ECB MEASURES SUPPORT BANKS (1012 GMT)
Further relief for banks’ balance sheets might be on its way as the European Central Bank
(ECB) is expected to extend the Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) to June 2021
and to reduce its rate.
A Barclays analysis estimates TLTRO III (which will end in March 2021) has given euro area
banks total revenues of around 5 billion euros from their net current ECB exposure, in contrast
to 7 billion euros cost in case of no mitigation.
These days investors continue to envisage more ECB stimulus as the economic picture
continues to deteriorate on surging coronavirus cases across the globe.
But analysts do not expect the ECB to take concrete policy decisions on October 29, while a
PEEP increase is expected on December 10.
Let’s see the impact of possible new ECB measures, according to Barclays.
An adjustment of the 'tiering system' is an option, but any increase in the multiplier of
the minimum reserves up to 11x from the current 6x “should not have any meaningful market
impact.”
“A 25 basis points reduction in the TLTRO rate would be a valid alternative especially if
core banks continue to borrow at the TLTRO, as we expect.”
The current TLTRO rate of depo rate minus 50 basis points is temporary and will return to
the depo rate in June 2021.
In the long-term an extension after June 2021 will avoid a tightening in financial
conditions, but such mitigating benefits “have to be evaluated against the risk of moral hazard
and heavy reliance on ECB liquidity.”
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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TEAM BIDEN VS TEAM TRUMP: WHICH EUROPEAN STOCKS TO BUY? (0944 GMT)
Who do you think is going to win the U.S. presidential election in November?
Based on what you answered, you may consider which stocks will benefit from that outcome.
Analysts at Jefferies have put together a list of stocks to pick if you are assuming Joe
Biden will become the next U.S. president or if, instead, you think Trump will bag another
mandate.
For team Biden, the best picks include BT, Puma, Fiat Chrysler, Solvay and Anglo American.
Here is the full list by Jefferies, Factset:
For team Trump, the best stocks to buy include Burberry Group, Prosus, AXA and Banco
Santander. Here are Jefferies' stocks to position for a Trump reelection.
(Joice Alves)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: STOXX AT MONTH LOW, FTSE BACK TO MAY LEVELS (074O GMT)
Stimulus scepticism and COVID-19 worries are teaming up this morning to push the STOXX 600
down more than 1% to its lowest in one month, offsetting the positive signals from the European
earnings season.
The drop is even more painful for the FTSE, which has hit its lowest point since May.
It's clearly a risk off session that's shaping up with all country indexes and sectoral
gauges trading in the red.
(Danilo Masoni)
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EUROPEAN EARNINGS COMING AND AIN'T LOOKING BAD (0639 GMT)
Besides the undesirable uncertainty about U.S. stimulus and the growing COVID-19 concerns,
investors will have to deal with several earnings updates in Europe this morning.
Let's start from the good-looking ones, which appear to be outnumbering the others,
underscoring the pace of the recovery over the latest quarter.
Swedish bank SEB reported better-than-expected net profit for Q3 due to higher
lending margins and a recovery in its payments business, despite increased loan losses as the
coronavirus pandemic led to more sour debt.
Norway's DNB posted a smaller than expected drop in Q3 profits and said the
business impact from the coronavirus pandemic had not been as severe as anticipated.
Unilever, reported a stronger-than-expected return to sales growth in Q3.
French electrical equipment group Schneider Electric raised its 2020 outlook,
citing a better-than-expected Q3 due to pent-up demand and restocking of inventories by
distributors.
Finnish biofuel producer and oil refiner Neste reported a smaller-than-expected
fall in Q3 profit, thanks to its resilient renewables business and despite a very weak refining
market.
And here are the ones which are in-line or look somewhat mixed:
French-Italian chipmaker STMicro's Q3 earnings met market expectations, confirming
that strong demand from the auto and mobile industries drove up revenues.
Swedish steelmaker SSAB posted a quarterly operating loss in line with analysts'
forecasts due to slow demand, but said activity had picked up towards the end of the quarter.
French spirits maker Pernod Ricard said sales would return to growth in the second
half of its 2020/2021 fiscal year, although the downturn in travel retail and disruptions from
the COVID-19 crisis would still impact its Q2.
And finally the bad ones:
British Airways-owner IAG reported a 1.3 billion euro loss in Q3 as coronavirus
restrictions continue to depress travel, forcing it to further downgrade its capacity outlook
for the rest of the year.
Engineering group Alfa Laval reported Q3 core earnings below market forecasts but
said it expected demand to be somewhat higher in the fourth quarter.
(Danilo Masoni)
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EUROPE SET TO OPEN ON THE BACK FOOT (0525 GMT)
The more uncertain prospect in the U.S. of a pre-election deal over a fiscal stimulus
package are set to weigh on sentiment in Europe this morning with stock index futures pointing
to a lower open following losses in Asia and on Wall Street overnight.
High-level talks on a new coronavirus aid bill in the world's No.1 economy faced a setback
late yesterday when Trump accused Democrats of being unwilling to craft an acceptable
compromise, despite reports of some progress earlier in the day.
Meantime, Covid-19 infections in Europe are surging with countries from Poland to Portugal
expressing mounting alarm at the renewed crisis confronting their health infrastructure.
EuroSTOXX 50 and DAX futures are both down 0.5% while FTSE futures are falling 0.4%.
(Danilo Masoni)
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