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LONDON MIDDAY BRIEFING: Greek Central Bank Raises EU Exit Fear

Wed, 17th Jun 2015 10:59

LONDON (Alliance News) - The Greek central bank Wednesday warned that a failure by the country's leaders and its creditors to reach a bailout deal would lead to its exit from the euro area and the European Union, just a day before eurozone finance ministers gather for crucial talks on the future of Greece.

"The conclusion of a new agreement with our partners is of the utmost importance to fend off the immediate risks to the economy," the Bank of Greece said. "Failure to reach an agreement would, on the contrary, mark the beginning of a painful course that would lead initially to a Greek default and ultimately to the country's exit from the euro area and - most likely - from the EU," it added.

Greece would then "snowball into an uncontrollable crisis, with great risks for the banking system and financial stability," the bank said in a statement on its monetary policy for 2014-15.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann are meeting in Athens Wednesday, with Faymann expected to express his solidarity with the Greek people but urge Athens to work towards a compromise in order to avert a default on its debt and a possible exit from the eurozone.

Athens and European officials traded accusations on Tuesday over the stalled negotiations, casting doubt on whether progress could be made at Thursday's Eurogroup meeting - considered one of the last opportunities to achieve a breakthrough in the long-running talks.

The European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are the Grrek creditors negotiating economic measures required for Greece to access EUR7.2 billion in remaining bailout funds.

The tension between Greece and its creditors intensified this week when Tsipras blamed the ECB and the IMF for the gridlock in the increasingly acrimonious talks. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker accused Athens of misleading the public about the creditors' positions.

Greece has to repay EUR1.6 billion to the IMF by the end of the month, which is also when the European part of the country's existing bailout expires. Fears abound that it could run out of money.

Talk of a so-called Grexit, a Greek exit from the eurozone, have mounted in recent days with a German newspaper reporting this week that Athens' eurozone partners had started drawing up an emergency plan to head off the threat of economic chaos in Greece.

Ahead of Thursday's Greek talks, markets are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy announcement after the European equity markets close Wednesday.

Although no change in interest rates is expected at this meeting, the language of the statement and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's comments could give hints concerning the timing of so-called "interest rate normalization".

The Fed is expected to be more optimistic on US economic growth and wait for more signs of improvement to start its rate hikes. Most economists are expecting a September rate hike, if the economy keeps improving in the coming months. The rate has been kept at 0.25% since 2008.

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Markets: UK shares are mixed mid-morning, but the pound rose after UK unemployment data remained at record lows while the increase in average earnings was the strongest in four years in the three months to April. The pound hit its highest level in a month of USD1.5748 against the dollar.

Futures point to a higher open for US stock indices, with the DJIA and S&P 500 currently indicated up 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.1%.

FTSE 100: down 0.5% at 6,677.68
FTSE 250: down 0.3% at 17,678.28
AIM ALL-SHARE: flat at 767.69
GBP: up at USD1.5741
EUR: up at USD1.1262
GOLD: down at USD1,178.70 an ounce
OIL (Brent): up at USD65.15 a barrel
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Top Corporate News
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Rolls-Royce Holdings said it has won a USD500 million to provide its Trent 100 engines and after-care support for six Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner aircraft that Ethiopian Airlines has ordered. The British aircraft engine maker said the decision marks a "significant vote of confidence in the Trent 1000", Ethiopian having previously selected engines from another provider to power 13 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft.
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Old Mutual priced the sale of a further stake in OM Asset Management, the boutique asset manager it spun off in a float on the New York Stock Exchange in the autumn of 2014, at USD17.50 a share. Old Mutual said the underwritten public offering of 13.3 million shares will close on June 22. It had announced the planned share sale on Monday.
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Media Buying giant WPP said that its GroupM operating company has bought New Zealand-based media agency Chemistry Media. It didn't provide any financial details about the transaction. Chemistry Media is a media planning and buying agency with operations in Auckland and Wellington. Key clients include Bank of New Zealand, Fonterra, Nestlé, and Restaurant Brands, WPP said.
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Berkeley Group Holdings joined UK housebuilding peers in reporting higher profit and revenue for its last financial year as its average selling prices rose strongly and it booked gains on land and asset sales, and it said the clear UK election result had underpinned its outlook. The company reported a pretax profit of GBP539.7 million for the year to April 30, up from GBP380.0 million a year before, as revenue grew to GBP2.12 billion, from GBP1.62 billion. Berkeley said it sold 3,355 new homes across London and the South of England, down from 3,742 a year before, but the average selling price rose strongly to GBP575,000 from GBP423,000.
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Evraz said it will spend about USD215 million in development capital expenditure in 2015 and about USD335 million in maintenance capital expenditure, as it predicted strong growth in production of large diameter gas pipeline in North America this year. The steel, mining and vanadium company is holding an investor day in London Wednesday, and said it will provide updates on key programmes and projects, as well as its near-term strategic goals.
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JD Sports Fashion said it has made a strong start in the first 19 weeks of its new financial year, ahead of its annual general meeting. The sports retailer said sales are growing in Europe, but warned that the weak euro will hit its margins in stores outside of the UK. "Whilst we are now trading against challenging comparatives for the remainder of the year, the board remains confident that current earnings expectations for the group for the year ended January 31, 2016 should be met," the company said.
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Betfair Group reported growth in pretax profit in its recently-ended financial year as a rise in customer numbers led to double-digit sales growth in all three of its divisions. The gaming company reported a pretax profit of GBP101.2 million in the year to April 30 from GBP61.1 million the year before, as revenue rose 21% to GBP476.5 million from GBP393.6 million. Betfair will pay a dividend of 34.0p, a 70% increase on the 20.0p paid the prior year.
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Software provider Anite and Keysight Technologies released a joint statement saying the two companies have reached an agreement for Anite to be acquired by a Dutch subsidiary of Keysight. The companies said the directors of Anite and two of its substantial shareholders have recommended the deal be approved by Anite shareholders. The GBP388 million recommended cash offer by Keysight Technologies Netherlands is for 126.0 pence per Anite share, representing a 22% premium to the closing price of Anite shares on Tuesday of 103.00p. The stock is up 24% at 127.80p midday Wednesday.
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AIM Movers
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Cap-XX shares are up by a fifth as it said it was "very encouraged" by initial industry feedback for its recently launched range of Thinline supercapacitors, after it shipped sample units for evaluation to manufacturers of wearable devices, energy harvesters and smart credit cards. Goldplat is doing well after it said it has made "significant progress" at its gold recovery businesses in South Africa and Ghana and said the backlog of material caused by problems with its refining partner, Rand Refinery, will be cleared by the end of 2015 as a result. Tertiary Minerals is up after it announced a 67% increase in its total mineral resource estimate for its MB Flourspar project in Nevada following a drilling programme at the site and said it thinks the deposit size will far exceed current estimates. Active Energy Group is another gainer after it received written confirmation from the Canadian Ministry of Aboriginal Affairs that the report regarding a possible breach of law by its joint venture operation in Alberta will be issued in the next four weeks. Sefton Resources shares are down heavily after it raised GBP799,500 gross by placing 1.23 million shares at a discounted 0.065 pence a share. It also issued 615 million warrants to subscribe for shares at the same price. The company's shares currently trade at 0.08p. Baron Oil is down after it reported a wider pretax loss in 2014 as costs outstripped revenue and it booked numerous impairments, but said it is expecting "positive results" in 2015 after a "challenging year".
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Other Top Economics And General
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UK unemployment held steady at its lowest level in nearly seven years during the three months to April, while pay growth was the strongest in four years, exceeding economists' forecast, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed. The ILO jobless rate for the February to April period was 5.5%, which was down from 5.7% logged for the three months to January. It was also lower than the 6.6% recorded in the same period last year. Average earnings including bonuses grew 2.7% year-on-year during the three months to April. Economists had forecast 2.1% growth. The latest increase was the highest since June to August 2011, when pay grew 2.7%.
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Bank of England policymakers unanimously voted to maintain its key interest rate and quantitative easing at the meeting held early this month, the minutes showed. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to retain its key rate at a record low 0.50% and asset purchase programme at GBP 375 billion.
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The British Chambers of Commerce expects annual UK inflation to remain around zero over the next three or four months and weak in the near term, before rising gradually towards to end of the year. The BCC expects inflation to still be slightly below the 2% target by the end of next year. This suggested that the Bank of England would not consider interest rate hike until the mid of 2016 at the earliest.
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Eurozone consumer prices increased for the first time in six months in May, final data published by Eurostat showed. Consumer prices rose 0.3% year-on-year in May after being flat in April. The annual rate came in line with the flash estimate published on June 2. This was the first annual increase since last November and also the fastest since October 2014, when prices rose 0.4%.
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Hong Kong looks unlikely to adopt controversial voting reforms that triggered the biggest unrest in years in the Chinese territory, as pro-democracy legislators vowed to vote against them in a debate Wednesday. If the limited reforms pass, "there won't be incentive and pressure to amend the system" any further, warned legislator Alan Leong, member of an alliance of political parties against the legislation.
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The US House of Representatives voted to grant itself more time to find a way to pass legislation that would support President Barack Obama's beleaguered trade agenda. Lawmakers now have until July 30 to vote again on the trade measures, which failed in the House on Friday in a rebuff of Obama by his own Democrats. At issue is the so-called fast track trade authority that would clear the way for completion of trade deals under negotiation with Pacific Rim countries and the EU.
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NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg criticized Russia for its decision to add at least 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles to its nuclear arsenal this year - a move that Moscow has blamed on the military alliance. "This nuclear sabre-rattling of Russia is unjustified, it's destabilizing, and it's dangerous," Stoltenberg said in Brussels.
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Plans to tackle a migration surge that has challenged Europe for months hit a hurdle, as EU interior ministers clashed over plans to redistribute asylum seekers. "There remain diverging opinions," Latvian Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis acknowledged after chairing talks in Luxembourg with his 27 EU counterparts. Latvia currently holds the bloc's presidency. The leaders are due to meet next week at a summit in Brussels.
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President Mahmoud Abbas has initiated the process of dissolving the one-year-old Palestinian government of national unity, officials confirmed. Abbas' unity government was agreed to by the president's Fatah movement, based in the West Bank, and Hamas, the Islamist movement in de facto control of the Gaza Strip, shortly after peace talks with Israel collapsed last year.
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Swiss banks have reported suspicious activity in the accounts of world football governing body FIFA, Switzerland's attorney general said. Federal prosecutor Michael Lauber said at a press conference in Zurich that banks had reported 53 possible cases of money laundering and his office was also analysing a "huge amount" (nine terabytes) of seized data. Switzerland are currently investigating how FIFA came to award the World Cups of 2018 and 2022 to Russia and Qatar respectively.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times in BST)

12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
15:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
19:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
19:00 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
19:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
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Thursday's UK Corporate Events

Safestore Holdings - Half Year Results
HML Holdings - Full Year Results
Premier Farnell - Interim Management Statement
Darty - Full Year Results
Findel - Full Year Results
Liontrust Asset Management - Full Year Results
Norcros - Full Year Results
Poundland Group - Full Year Results/Q1 Results
Charles Stanley - Full Year Results
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Thursday's Key Economic Events (all times in BST)

All Day EU Eurogroup meeting
00:05 UK BoE Quarterly Bulletin
00:50 Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks/bonds
n/a Ireland Gross Domestic Product
02:30 China House Price Index
09:00 EU Economic Bulletin
09:30 UK Retail Sales
10:00 EU Labour cost
10:15 EU Targeted LTRO
13:30 US Jobless Claims
13:30 US Current Account
14:30 US Consumer Price Index
15:00 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
15:00 US CB Leading Indicator
15:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage change

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Contact: +44 207 199 0340; newsroom@alliancenews.com; @AllNewsTeam

Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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