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LIVE MARKETS-View from the buyside: stick with Europe and banks

Thu, 22nd Mar 2018 14:42

* European stocks extend losses * Tech, banks hit by trade fears * Euro zone growth slows again in March * U.S. to sign tariffs on China at 1630 GMT * BoE keeps rates steady but two vote for hike March 22 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought toyou by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger toshare your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net VIEW FROM THE BUYSIDE: STICK WITH EUROPE AND EUROPEAN BANKS (1425 GMT) From across the pond, U.S. asset manager Manning & Napier Advisors is still optimistic aboutthe European recovery story despite disappointing economic data coming through, and globalstrategies fund manager Jeff Donlon still reckons banks are a good bet. "Some of the recent data has been on the squishier side," admits Jeff Donlon, managingdirector of global strategies at Manning & Napier. While many are interpreting this as indicating the economy's going to slow, he argues thefigures were bound to fall from last year's peaks. "These are mean-reverting measures, we see astabilisation at high and still expansionary levels," says Donlon. "Whereas last year was characterised by growth with risk to the upside, now it's more growthat a stable level." Donlon maintains his positive view on European banks, accordingly, saying loan growth willcontinue to rise. Among other favourites he points to domestic companies "able to address labour marketshortages and supply constraints". Donlon backs Randstad and Kion, Temenos ("should see an upliftin demand as banks become healthier and invest in systems") and Sopra Steria. Wienerberger and St Gobain should also stand to benefit, he says, fromincreased investment into alleviation of supply bottlenecks. (Helen Reid) ***** IS IT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM FOR TED BAKER AFTER ALL? (1332 GMT) UK retail has been a big focus as the negative newsflow around the sector refuses to let up,and today's release from Ted Baker has caused the shares to drop 7.6 percent. But investors have been taking another look at beaten-down UK retail stocks recently - as wereported on Wednesday - and some analysts see more positives than negatives in TedBaker's results. Comments around a tough global environment and unseasonal weather seem to have drawn mostattention. But online was the driver, boosting annual pretax profit 12 percent. E-commerce salesincreased nearly 40 percent across the company, while store revenue rose only 4 percent.E-commerce now accounts for nearly 23 percent of Ted's total retail sales. Secondly, the retailer isn't going crazy on new store openings – it’s planning to increaseaverage retail space by only 4 to 5 percent with capex planned at 30 million pounds sterling,and is aiming to continue investing in its e-commerce sites. "This performance is even more commendable considering the tough backdrop. The investmentsin infrastructure are highly supportive of sustained growth," Liberum analysts say in a note. "We see the c40% growth in e-commerce and +25% growth in North American wholesale as keyindicators of the strength of the brand and its recent collections," they add. Even though analysts at Peel Hunt point to challenges ahead due to unfavourable weather andan early Easter, they admit there are "relatively few retailers delivering 10% profit growth"like Ted. (Kit Rees) ***** EUROPEAN BANKS HIT 11-MONTH LOW, SET FOR WORST MONTH SINCE BREXIT (1306 GMT) Europe's bank stock index has hit its lowest in 11 months, and this month's declinesput it on track for the worst month since Brexit - a pretty impressive feat, with still a weekto go. Why is the tide turning on a sector many backed for most of last year as a core #Euroboomtrade? Clearly some are concerned that the euro zone's run of stellar economic data is coming to anend - as we detailed below. Plus, bank stocks have become a very consensus trade: BAML's global fund manager survey onTuesday showed the second-highest overweight in bank stocks ever. Interestingly the survey ofEuropean fund managers showed the overweight on banks, while still high, diminished slightlyfrom February to March. Commerzbank is sinking 7.5 percent to the bottom of the DAX, while Deutsche Bank is falling 3.6 percent. And Swedish banks are facing their own issues on top of the broader market mood today, withGoldman Sachs saying competitive pressure in the mortgage market is intensifying. (Helen Reid) ***** BOO! TWO HAWKS SITTING ON BOE BOARD (1233 GMT) The Bank of England kept rates steady and that was widely expected but the surprising bitwas that two of its policymakers voted for an immediate rate rise. Markets took that as a hawkish signal, briefly sending sterling to a nine-monthhigh against the euro. The reaction on the FTSE, whose big foreign earners make it very sensitive tofluctuations on the forex market, was less clear. It initially hit a fresh day low and laterrecovered just a bit. It's now back to a fresh day low, down 1.2 percent, but no jolts. (Danilo Masoni) ***** LET'S FACE IT: EURO ZONE ACCELERATION IS CLEARLY OVER (1214 GMT) European shares were seen by many outperforming the U.S. at the start of the year but thathasn't happened and this may be due to the loss of momentum in the region's economic recoverywith the latest PMI data just confirming this trend. "Eurozone PMIs in March declined for a second consecutive month, indicating moderation inthe growth impulse from the cyclical peak reached at the turn of the year. The decline waslarger than generally expected," writes UniCredit head of macro research Marco Valli. Valli said today's big drop in the PMIs did not indicate downside risks to their positiveview on euro zone growth but still the level of caution has increased. "Business sentiment has to be monitored carefully in the coming months, especially if tradetensions intensify, because any further significant deterioration in confidence indicators mightsignal that the balance of risks starts shifting to the downside," he says. And here's Citi's take on the poor PMI showing: "The sentiment setback has spread frommanufacturing to the domestic-oriented services sector, which supports our view that the cyclepeaked at the turn of the year, and acceleration is clearly over." The Euro zone STOXX index is down 2.7 percent so far this quarter, while the S&P500 is up 1.4 percent. That coincides with Citi's economic surprise index for the eurozone falling deeper into negative territory to hit a 2-year low this month, while U.S. economicsurprises are on a positive run since October. (Danilo Masoni) ***** PEAK TRADE RISKS? (1130 GMT) As European shares tumble further heading into midday, some brokers are still relativelysanguine on the trade threat hanging over the market as the U.S. prepares to impose tariffs onChinese imports. Goldman Sachs says we're "probably approaching peak trade risk in the near-term", thoughstrategists at the U.S. bank don't hesitate to say retaliation from China is likely, and withindays. "Unlike the steel and aluminium tariffs, which were 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively,the affected categories of imports from China are likely to face a much higher level of tariffs,potentially approaching 100 percent," write Goldman strategists. Citi analysts reckon the recent growth in world trade will overcome tariffs. They point tofigures showing strong growth in global goods trade volumes in 2017, and note that trade growthhas now surpassed global GDP growth once again. "For now, our base case is for moderate increases in global protectionism and for these tomostly remain targeted at specific sectors," they write. Both U.S. brokers are careful to highlight that Chinese retaliation "could" escalate into aglobal trade war, however. Watch this space ... (Helen Reid) ***** U.S. INVESTORS STILL NOT KEEN ON EUROPEAN STOCKS (1023 GMT) Investors in the U.S. are the "key marginal buyers" of European equities, UBS strategistswrite, and they're, crucially, not keen on the underperforming region at the moment. One measure of interest, U.S. net buying of Europe ETFs, peaked in May last year after theFrench elections and has since fallen. U.S. investors are now net sellers - while they'repushing money into ETFs for other equity markets - as Europe's relative performance remainsweak. In local currency Europe has sharply underperformed the U.S., with the latter's strong techexposure driving better performance. The S&P 500 has returned four times as much as the STOXX600 since January 2017, as you can see below. "When the domestic market is performing so well, there is clearly less incentive for U.S.investors to look overseas," note UBS strategists. The strong euro's also pointed as a dampener on performance, though UBS points out thetrade-weighted euro seems to have peaked year-on-year. (Helen Reid) ***** OPENING SNAPSHOT: EUROPEAN STOCKS HIT A 2-WEEK LOW (0830 GMT) Following the U.S. Fed's rate hike, European stocks have hit a two-week low in early morningtrading, led lower by weakness in tech and banking stocks as traders brace themselves for theBOE's policy decision later in the day. United Internet is the biggest tech faller, down 9 percent after reporting fullyear earnings towards the lower end of guidance, while elsewhere Svenska Handelsbankenis the biggest STOXX faller after trading ex-div. Reckitt Benckiser has shot up a hefty 5 percent after pulling out of a bid forPfizer's consumer health unit. GSK, on the other hand, is down 1 percent now that itcould have a better shot at buying the aforementioned unit. Here's your opening snapshot: (Kit Rees) ***** WHAT'S ON THE RADAR FOR THE OPEN (0743 GMT) It’s a busy day for European investors today who’ll be watching the first day of the EUsummit, with Brexit and the U.S. tariffs top of the agenda, as well as the Bank of England’srate decision and policy meeting after the U.S. Fed surprised market watchers with less hawkishrate guidance. Earnings and M&A continue to drive European stocks, which are set to fall at the open withfutures down 0.3 to 0.6 percent. The world’s no.2 cement maker Heidelberg Cement, seen as an indicator of Chinese demand,reported record profits and better than expected synergies in its Italcementi takeover, drivingit to hike its dividend by a fifth – though the payout fell slightly short of analysts’ averageexpectations. The stock was indicated flat pre-market. Reckitt Benckiser shares are seen rising up to 5 percent after the company pulled out of therunning for Pfizer’s consumer health business. Traders say the market was worried Reckitt wouldoverpay for the acquisition target. A report that GSK is now in pole position for the Pfizer unit is also doing the rounds intrader notes before the open, and the stock is indicated down 0.5 to 2 percent. In a further sign that E.ON and RWE’s break-up of Innogy has improved sentiment on theGerman utility stocks, a government source said the state of Bavaria has scrapped plans to sellits 1.4 percent stake in E.ON. And the latest UK retailer to report seems to be bucking the trend of disappointingperformance: Ted Baker said online sales surged, helping it to a 12 percent jump in profit. Additional headlines: Retailer Ted Baker's annual profit rises as online sales jump Online broker IG Group's Q3 revenue rises as client base grows Lamprell expects lower revenue in 2018, posts loss in 2017 BRIEF-Kuka FY Net Income Of EUR 88.2 Mln IBA posts 39 mln euro FY net loss after 'challenging year' Deutsche Bank further narrows price range for IPO of DWS unit Stobart Group says no longer pursuing regional carrier Flybe (Helen Reid and Kit Rees) ***** FUTURES FALL, EYES ON BOE AND EU SUMMIT (0708 GMT) Stock futures have opened lower across European benchmarks, down 0.3 to 0.6 percent asinvestors' attention turns to the EU summit opening today, and the Bank of England's ratemeeting. The two-day European Council begins today with Brexit on the agenda as well as the U.S.tariffs on steel and aluminium. The Bank of England's MPC meeting is top of mind too, with themarket closely watching the vote balance and language. The central bank is likely to stay on course for an interest rate rise in May - you can readour full preview here: "Given market pricing, the bigger surprise and market reaction would be a 9:0 vote withlanguage revolving around a hike but not committing to one as soon as May," write SocieteGenerale analysts. Here's your screenshot of early futures trading: (Helen Reid) ***** EARLY MORNING HEADLINE ROUND-UP (0646 GMT) In earnings and M&A news today, the world's no. 2 maker of cement, Heidelberg Cement, gave an early Easter present to its shareholders, hiking its dividend by a fifth onrecord profits and higher-than-expected synergies from its Italcementi takeover. The dividend of1.90 euros per share for 2017 did however fall short of analysts' expectations for a 1.99 europayout. In M&A news, Bayer won Australian approval for its purchase of Monsanto aftergetting EU regulators' clearance on Wednesday. Meanwhile Reckitt Benckiser overnight saidit had ended discussions with Pfizer Inc over buying its consumer healthcare business. And after E.ON's deal with RWE to carve up Innogy, the German state of Bavaria has droppedthe idea of selling its 1.44 percent stake in the utility, a source said. HeidelbergCement to hike dividend by a fifth on synergies Bayer wins EU approval for $62.5 bln Monsanto buy Reckitt Benckiser pulls out of Pfizer consumer health auction Bavaria plans now to keep 1.44 pct stake in E.ON - source Saint-Gobain CEO expects resolution of Sika case by end of year MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN STOCKS TO FALL AFTER LESS HAWKISH FED(0618 GMT) Good morning and welcome to Live Markets. European stocks are called to open lower this morning after the Fed raised rates overnightand forecast two more hikes for 2018, a guidance seen as less hawkish than anticipated. The slower pace of rate hikes weighed on the U.S. dollar, which could have a knock-on effecttoday on European exporters earnings in dollars. Chinese shares slipped overnight to two-week lows, with trade war fears still grippinginvestors. Oil prices near six-week highs could however give a boost to energy stocks in Europeantrading today. Spreadbetters call the DAX 48 points lower at 12,261, the CAC 40 down 20 points at 5,225,and the FTSE 100 22 points lower at 7,017. (Helen Reid) *****
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