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WRAPUP 1-$15 billion question haunts Russian energy results

Tue, 30th Apr 2013 17:12

* Russian energy stocks trading at 40-50 pct discount

* Third-largest oil firm fails to disclose ownership

* Gazprom, Rosneft criticised for over-investing

* No signal to stranded TNK-BP minority shareholders

By Douglas Busvine and Vladimir Soldatkin

MOSCOW, April 30 (Reuters) - The mystery of who controlsRussia's third-largest oil firm Surgutneftogas overshadowedresults for its energy majors on Tuesday, underlining the lackof transparency that continues to weigh on the state-dominatedsector.

Gas export monopoly Gazprom posted 2012 earningsof $38 billion - the world's third highest after ExxonMobil and Apple - but down 10 percent from a yearearlier and flattered by a fourth-quarter accounting tweak.

Rosneft, the world's largest publicly traded oil firm byoutput, gave no clues on whether it would buy out minorityshareholders in TNK-BP, the oil firm it bought for $55billion in March in Russia's largest-ever takeover.

But it was Surgutneftegas, Russia's No.3 oil firm,that left analysts scratching their heads over the fate of a 40percent stake held in treasury, which was last accounted for in2001 and would be worth $15 billion today.

One of Russia's most secretive listed firms, Surgut did notdisclose its ownership structure but did declare a cash pile of$29 billion in the first accounts to international standards ithas published in over a decade.

Surgut has been run since 1984 by 61-year-old 'red director'Vladimir Bogdanov, who is believed by analysts to control mostof the company's ordinary shares through what amounts to acircular ownership structure.

"We are waiting for the company to tell us where theseshares have gone," said Alexander Kornilov, an analyst at AlfaBank. Surgut shares fell by more than 4 percent.

KREMLIN CONTROL

Together, the results tell a story of corporate agendascontrolled by the Kremlin or management with scant regard forwhether capital is invested or, in Surgut's case, saved at 3percent interest, in a way that benefits investors.

Russian energy stocks have underperformed this yearas oil prices have weakened, declining by 9.4 percent.

Karen Kostanian, analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch inMoscow estimated the "corporate governance" discount on Russianenergy stocks at 40-50 percent. Share prices are underpinned atlow levels by a recent rule requiring state firms, like Gazpromand Rosneft, to distribute 25 percent of earnings as dividends.

That contrasts with a 40 percent payout ratio at Britain'sBP, which increased its Rosneft stake through the sale ofits one-half share in TNK-BP and published forecast-beatingresults on Tuesday.

Gazprom has faced criticism for doubling down its bets on athe weakening European export market, including through theSouth Stream pipeline which will connect its Siberian fields tosouthern Europe without passing through Ukraine.

Intensifying competition has forced Gazprom to offer rebatesto European buyers seeking relief from contracts that tiepurchase costs to the price of oil - a scarcer commodity thanabundant natural gas.

But Gazprom flattered its results by revising downretroactive price adjustments with Europe in the fourth quarterto 103 billion roubles ($3.33 billion) from a previously-booked133 billion roubles.

"South Stream has more of a political than an economicrationale - a new pipeline into the centre of an economicslowdown?" asked Bruce Bower, a partner at Moscow hedge fundVerno Capital, which does not own Gazprom stock.

LEARNING TO SHARE

Rosneft, too, has faced questions over whether it isover-reaching as CEO Igor Sechin seeks to integrate TNK-BP andmanage a string of upstream deals with foreign oil majors led byExxon.

First-quarter earnings fell by 13 percent, year-on-year, to102 billion roubles ($3.3 billion). That beat expectations butwas flattered by the inclusion of TNK-BP for the last 11 days ofMarch after the deal closed.

Owners of the small free float in TNK-BP's listed unit havenot received any firm offer of dividends or an exchange of theirholdings into Rosneft shares. "The situation at TNK-BP is reallybad - there is no way you can dress it up better," said Bower.

Prospects for a near-term re-rating of Russian energy stockslook doubtful. But there may be long-term value to be had.

"Equity investors have given up on Russia, but industryinvestors are moving in the opposite direction," said OswaldClint, a senior energy analyst at Bernstein Research in London.

Clint notes that Exxon's shares trade at a multiple ofaround two times forecast 2013 book value. Gazprom, meanwhile,trades at a price/book ratio of just 0.3 and Rosneft at 0.8 -both less than the theoretical break-up value of the business.

With Exxon and other foreign oil majors teaming up withRosneft to hunt for oil in Russia's Arctic offshore and tapreserves of 'tight' oil in Siberia, the transfer of technologyand know-how could lift Russian energy stocks over time.

"The opportunity to think about is the influence of Westerninvestors," said Clint. "Despite the politics and capitaldiscipline issues you could see value being created." ($1 = 30.9212 Russian roubles) (Writing by Douglas Busvine; editing by Patrick Graham)

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