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UPDATE 3-Deutsche adds to fears for slow start to year at investment banks

Thu, 13th Mar 2014 18:22

* Credit Suisse also says sees slowdown in parts of fixedincome

* Two banks add to warnings from U.S. rivals

* Industry has been under pressure since financial crisis

By Maya Nikolaeva

PARIS, March 13 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank said onThursday it has had a "slow" start to the year in its investmentbank, due to market uncertainty related to the crisis in Ukraineand concerns about economic growth in China and Germany.

Credit Suisse also said it had seen a slowdown inparts of fixed-income trading, adding to warnings from U.S.rivals JPMorgan and Citigroup that this year hasgot off to a weak start for investment banks, continuing aslowdown seen in the second half of last year.

"To us, the year started slow. Obviously through politicaluncertainty we started to have market uncertainty again and aslowdown in business," said Stefan Krause, chief financialofficer at Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest bank by marketvalue.

"Ukraine, the data from China caused some slowdown ... Wehad some ups and downs in Germany on data as well," Krause toldreporters on the sidelines of a banking conference in Paris,organised by The Economist magazine.

Credit Suisse also said some business areas had slowed.

"We have seen a slowdown in certain parts of fixed income,"said Gael de Boissard, Credit Suisse's head of investmentbanking and CEO for Europe, Middle East and Africa.

Revenues from fixed income - especially rates - have slumpedsince May, blamed on tougher regulation and a move by the U.S.central bank to put the brakes on its bond-buying programme.

While some banks say the fall is temporary, other bankersand analysts say requirements to hold more capital has squeezedmargins and left overcapacity, and banks will need to cuthundreds of jobs to shrink and restructure.

PROFITABILITY REBOUND?

Last year's drop in investment banking revenues and heftyfines for past wrongdoing hit profitability across the industry,which has been under pressure since the financial crisis.

Krause said banks should be able to generate profitabilityabove the cost of capital and funding from investors in 12 to 18months.

He said most of what Deutsche Bank currently earned was usedto deal with "the sins of the past".

"We hope that starting in 2015 most of the increased expenseis behind us," he said.

However, UBS's Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti saidon Thursday getting returns back above the cost of equity -which is typically 10-12 percent for banks - could take longer.

"I am not so sure that there is a 12 to 18 months solution,"Ermotti said.

"Without GDP growth, without the economy growing in asustainable and predictable way that allows clients and peopleto get less concerned and the interest rates to grow where theyshould grow, it is very unlikely that we will see a return ofprofitability in the banking industry that would justify thecost of equity," he said.

Krause said Deutsche Bank still sees positive results forthe whole year.

But his comments add to concerns that revenues in the firstquarter, often the most lucrative for investment banks, willsuffer from continued slow trading in fixed income, which makesup half of investment banks' revenues.

Citigroup said last week its first-quarter bond tradingrevenue would be down by the "high mid-teens" in percentageterms from a year ago due to economic uncertainty and JPMorgansaid on Feb. 25 its markets revenues were down 15 percent on theyear.

Revenue in the first quarter from fixed income at Europe'sinvestment banks is set to fall 20 percent from a year ago,analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate. Deutsche and Barclays would be hardest hit as they have the biggest bondtrading businesses in Europe, and they appear to be losing shareto U.S. rivals.

Revenues from fixed income, currencies and commodities lastyear fell by an average of 10 percent across the top dozenbanks. By comparison, equities income rose 17 percent last yearand advisory revenues grew by just over a tenth on average.

Morgan Stanley said equities income for Europe's banks inthe first quarter was likely to be up 4 percent and advisoryrevenues down 6 percent on the year, leaving overall investmentbank revenues down 10 percent.

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