Last checked at 
* STOXX 600 up 0.2%
* S&P 500 futures tick down
* Danone ousts CEO, shares jump
* Bitcoin falls back
* U.S. and EZ yields retreat
March 15 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters
reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
PEPPare YOURSELF! (1250 GMT)
After last week's European Central Bank meeting, eyes will once again turn to the bank's
weekly asset purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase programme - also known as PEPP - to
see if the bank's bite is as strong as its bark.
The figure for the bank's net PEPP purchases last week - which reflect purchases carried out
up to the close of business last Wednesday - will be released today at 1445 GMT.
Last week, ECB watchers poured a considerable amount of attention over a fall in the
headline number of the bank's weekly PEPP purchases, which came in lower than the previous
week's.
The fall in the net figure from the previous week's - explained by large bond redemptions -
might have been a non-event if not for a concurrent spike in sovereign bond yields, and mixed
messaging from ECB policymakers on what the rise meant.
At its meeting last week, the ECB said it would increase the pace of purchases in the 1.85
trillion euro bond-buying programme. Despite the decision, sources have told Reuters last week's
meeting was fractious, with policymakers divided over the outlook for the euro zone economy.
Perhaps all the more reason to watch the numbers.
(Ritvik Carvalho)
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WHO'S DRIVING KING DOLLAR? (1225 GMT)
With the dollar comfortably perched near a four-month high against its rivals and short
positions swimming in a sea of red, investors are asking: what will drive the dollar in the
coming days?
One would tend to think U.S. 10-year yields are running the show but according to BOFA
analysts, the biggest impact is driven by moves in the 2 to 5 year bond maturity bucket.
That segment is where most of the monetary policy divergence story tends to play out, they
argue.
Secondly, nominal rates have more of an explanatory power than moves in real rates, say the
analysts at the U.S. bank which is bullish on the dollar and expects the greenback to strengthen
to $1.15 versus the euro by end-2021.
The dollar has gained 2% percent so far this year after a 4% percent drop in Q4 2020.
(Saikat Chatterjee)
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ASTRAZENECA VACCINE: WINNER OR LOSER? (1216 GMT)
One would think AstraZeneca shares would be tanking this morning, with some
countries suspending the administration of the company's vaccine following reports of possible
unexpected side effects.
Denmark, Norway, Ireland, Iceland and Thailand have halted use of AstraZeneca's vaccine over
blood clotting concerns.
Italy's northern region of Piedmont on Sunday said it would stop using a batch of
AstraZeneca vaccines after a teacher died following his vaccination on Saturday, while Austria
also stopped using a particular batch last week.
But the company's shares are trading flat as a pancake this morning. After hitting a record
high in July 2020, they now trade close to levels seen last April.
Why? Part of it is that the company's shares have been under pressure for a while amid an
onslaught of bad news in recent months around the vaccine rollout.
The stock hit all time highs and became the UK’s most valuable listed company in July last
year, eclipsing BP and Shell and Unilever which are traditionally the biggest by market cap on
the back of optimism about its strong position in the vaccine race (as well as its strong
performance in oncology).
Traders and analysts have attributed the erosion of the share price in recent months to
doubts over the vaccine. AstraZeneca's stock has performed the worst among vaccine frontrunners
since November.
Is there hope ahead? Assuming the vaccine survives scrutiny of its side effects and
country-wide suspensions, AstraZeneca may still yet profit.
While the company famously pledged last year not to make money off its inoculant developed
in collaboration with Oxford University, this report from the FT https://www.ft.com/content/c474f9e1-8807-4e57-9c79-6f4af145b686
last year points out that the pledge is only as good as the paper it's penned on.
The report cites an agreement between AstraZeneca and a Brazilian manufacturer, which
defines the "Pandemic Period" as ending on July 1, 2021 - a period which could be extended but
only if "AstraZeneca acting in good faith considers that the SARS-COV-2 pandemic is not over."
(Ritvik Carvalho)
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FOR EUROPE'S TRAVEL STOCKS, THE PANDEMIC IS OVER (1135 GMT)
Europe's travel and leisure index is celebrating a big milestone, as investors cheer
vaccination campaigns and anticipate times of easier global travel.
The index has climbed to pre-pandemic levels for the first time this morning and briefly hit
a new record high, setting a remarkable journey (+142%) since the lows hit one year ago during
the first dark days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of course, the industry still faces considerable risks as airlines bleed cash and most
travel bans remain in place but expectations that the summer period is going to be different
seems to be creating a confident mood.
"We think the airlines and hotels will remain cautious on the near term outlook. However, the
focus is likely to be on cost cutting and being prepared for the uptick in travel volumes which
we think will come through as the year progresses," said UBS in its latest update on travel
restrictions last week.
Over the past week some rays of home have emerged for global travellers.
France, for example, on Thursday eased COVID-19 restrictions for Australia, New Zealand,
South Korea, Israel, Japan, Britain and Singapore.
Also giving a helping hand to the index, Flutter Entertainment up about 7% after announcing
it was considering a U.S. listing for its FanDuel unit.
Here below Europe's travel and leisure index.
(Danilo Masoni)
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EUROPEAN EQUITIES: BET ON FINANCIALS (1122 GMT)
Some analysts say there is more upside for European equities while a spillover effect from
U.S. rising yield is still possible and the vaccine campaign seems to be picking up speed after
suffering from supply problems.
BofA sees the STOXX 600 index at 460 points by the third quarter this year, with further 15%
outperformance for value versus growth by late Q3.
In the table its sector view.
Below more assessments about sectors by Morgan Stanley.
. Banks (overweight): posted a very strong net EPS beat, and an improving outlook for
dividend reinstatements gives the sector best in class dividend revisions. It continues to look
attractive relative to its long run history.
. Insurance (overweight): valuations remain highly attractive and are well below long run
averages. It represents a very cheap way to gain exposure to the reflation theme.
. Autos: it's currently the most overbought European sector. Valuations appear neutral
versus history.
. Utilities: it is currently the most oversold sector in Europe. Its underlying fundamentals
have also lagged and it sees negative relative earnings revisions at this time. Relative
valuations have normalised but look less depressed when compared to defensive peers.
. Household Products (underweight): has been the worst performer over the last 3 months.
Rock bottom relative valuations and oversold performance may mean value is starting to emerge
for the sector; however, it remains a tricky backdrop for defensives.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****
UPBEAT OPEN AS FLUTTER AND DANONE SHINE (0839 GMT)
The STOXX 600 has had quite an upbeat open this morning and the mood at +0.7% is proving
much better than what futures had pointed out earlier.
There's some pretty heavy price action at the top of the index with Flutter Entertainment
rising 7.3% after announcing it was considering a U.S. listing for its FanDuel unit.
France's Danone is the second biggest gainer, up 4.7%, boosted by the ousting of its CEO as
the group bowed to pressure from several shareholders including investment fund Artisan Partners
and activist investor Bluebell Capital.
In Milan, car-maker Stellantis is also enjoying the beginning of the week, jumping 3.3% as
Deutsche Bank initiated its coverage of the stock with a "buy" and a target price of 20 euros
per share, which is a handsome 5 euros above what they are trading at right now.
The sector indexes of Flutter, Danone and Stellantis have logically enjoyed the positive
newsflow: travel and leisure is up 3.2%, consumer staples are up 1.1% and autos rising 1.7%.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
NO TWIST, NO SHOUT (0814 GMT)
A week packed with central bank action lies ahead -- the U.S. Fed, the Bank of Japan, the
Bank of England, Norges Bank as well as those in Turkey, Brazil and Russia hold policy meetings.
As anticipation builds, especially for the Fed's Wednesday outing, ten-year U.S. Treasury
yields US10YT=RR are within kissing distance of 13-month highs of 1.642% reached on Friday and
the dollar is ticking higher.
The 10-year yield has just had a seven week rising streak -- the longest since 2009 and
while that hasn't unleashed the stock market mayhem many had feared, rate-sensitive tech shares
have certainly felt the heat.
So on Monday, Nasdaq futures NQC1 are trading in the red, while European indexes as well as
the U.S. Dow Jones look set to open firmer. The Nasdaq .NDX is up 0.4% year-to-date, while the
"old economy" Dow Jones .DJI has gained over 7%.
And it is unlikely, as some had speculated, we will see Fed action to curb yields through an
"Operation Twist" in which the central bank accelerates bond-buying at a certain part of the
curve.
The BOE on Thursday could signal upping its bond buying from May while messages from the BOJ
on yield-curve control will be key on Friday.
What's clear is that inflation and growth will be picking up in coming months as base
effects from the year-ago economic slump kick in; we had a taste of that today from China where
industrial output rose 35.1% in the first two months from a year earlier and retail sales jumped
33.8%.
Asking prices for UK homes also rose by 0.8% in the four weeks to March 6, data from
Rightmove just showed.
Meanwhile, fund raising continues unabated, with eye-watering valuations -- digital payments
company Stripe raised $600 million in a funding round, valuing it at $95 billion, the most
valuable private company on Silicon Valley.
And Deliveroo is marketing what could be the biggest London listing in more than seven
years, with plans to sell around 1 billion pounds of new shares in its upcoming IPO.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:
-Eurozone finance ministers meet
-Sweden cbank governor Ingves speaks
-U.S. Treasury 6-mth and 3 month auctions
-U.S. TIC data
-U.S. retail sales/industrial output Feb
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC (0631 GMT)
European stock seems set to open slightly up this morning with futures currently trading in
positive territory.
It's far from exuberant though with the derivatives for the DAX only up 0.2% and those for
Nasdaq down 0.3%.
It could certainly be worse given the cautious mood in Asia.
MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan is down 0.9%, with
mainland Chinese stocks retreating 1.7%.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
