Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Posts: 15,008
Hi Everyone,
My thanks to all my long time friends and fellow Centamin share holders and welcome too our table in the corner of our favorite pub "The Centamin" .
I do hope that everyone will feel welcome and feel free to join in the conversation on whatever they like really,as long as it's legal and not breaking the LSE rules.
Looking forward to hearing everyone's idea's ,tips and much more of the interesting subject matter about your experiences in life and our world , even Centamin related if you so choose!
Tibbs
Posts: 203
I'm very pleased to hear you're OK, Elsworth Beast Tibbles.
I have a detention book!
How did Rowan Atkinson keep a straight face when someone in the crowd shouted out 'here'?
My husband taped the Secret Policeman's Ball years ago and I found the tape about a month ago and played it. It's got Peter Cook doing the High Court judge at the Jeremy Thorpe trial. I never realized PC made up that sketch only a few hours before the live show. It also has John Cleese and Eric Idle (or Michael Palin - can't remember who) doing the 'guess the celebrity assailant'. Anna Ford puts the boot in.
Aoife
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Now we have two places to have a chat - works for me (but do continue posting on the regular board too - otherwise it shall never be the same!)
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Found you all!!
Tibbs you're a good guy. Ignore the few listen to the many.
DaggerMal
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I found this interesting
https://ideas.ted.com/why-your-city-should-have-its-own-currency
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Yes, Cowichan, another good example of how people are innovating around their devaluing official currencies.
I don't get much right in the field of investing - you may have noticed. However, on the subject of Bitcoin, I wrote that Elon Musk bought into Bitcoin and announced his purchases for Tesla very vocally. The price shot up, of course. Now the price of Bitcoin has collapsed. Why? Well, Elon has tweeted some comments recently which have been interpreted as Tesla's potential selling of that cryptocurrency. Am I getting very cynical in my old age, or has Musk already made the sale? I predicted all this would happen. So, watch this space.
I wish I could predict the gold price.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-elon-musk-tweets-cryptocurrencies-dogecoin-ethereum-090536453.html
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I really like you mr t and have tremendous respect for the knowledge and input you give to the CeY chat page but even your mum would have said , mr t give it a rest on the politics ? .
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Hello Mr T
Excellent post and great to see we have other avenues of dicussion.
I just think not many use this part of the site as it should/could be used - for general chats.
Today has been the first time Mr & Mrs CSDI been out for lunch this year (not via drive through) - hurrah
What's your tipple Mr Tibbles ?
I am sure we will all be queueing up to get a round in
Cheers - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas)
PS. Good to see Foxes win the FA Cup for first time in their history. Great tradition of the FA Cup lives on.
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Hi Everyone, So nice that you could join me at the table, it seems that we certainly won't be short tof things to discuss, if this goes on we shall have to ask the management if they might be able to give us a bigger table!
Cowichan's snippets were interesting, as always on the CEY forum and the follow up from Red Sparrow on the crypto, personally I wouldn't touch any of those that aren't backed by bullion, but each to their own.
I haven't bee to Cornwall for a while, but when I do visit I usually enjoy some of the craft beers from this brewery https://harbourbrewing.com/pages/manifesto
They do a very nice dark "Harbour Bitter" on the pump!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3v98dUp7h0M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amwhknSde5s
Unfortunately so much of the lager beer brewed in he UK is nothing like the same brand bought across the channel, its because our big brewers cut the specific gravity so that the beer falls into a lower tax band and this increases their profit margin.
When in South Cornwall try "Admirals Ale" I think this chap has enjoyed more than a couple!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4BUPIezc8Y
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Just heartwarming films that teach important lessons on just being kind to others!
The Fox and the bird
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm0MLlE4x0U
"Steve "the donkey questioned about break in at the carrot store!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZnqLi0rSQg
Tibbs
Posts: 15,008
As Capital are at present clearing the Sukari open pit waste see Berenberg note Highlights 15/05/2021
A strong start to the year!
? Capital has reported a strong start to the year, delivering revenues of USD44m, a quarterly record since inception and a beat versus our USD38m estimate. This was driven mainly by strong performance from its drilling business, with rig utilisation rates of 67% beating our 66% estimate and average revenue per operating rig (ARPOR) coming in at USD180k, a beat versus our USD173k. The strength in ARPOR was driven by a mixture of strengthening revenue contributions from new contracts and improved performance from existing long-term contracts. We believe that mobilisation revenue from the Sukari contract in Egypt is likely to have been another driver of the better performance. The company has reiterated revenue guidance of USD185m-195m for 2021.
? Tailwind is there, opportunity for beat: It is still early in the year, but market conditions for Capital remain attractive. In the drilling business, management notes that its core mine site contracts are performing well, and that it is experiencing the strongest demand environment for drilling services in a decade; this is very encouraging, and while we conservatively model ARPOR reducing (back to our previous expectation of USD173k for the year), we see scope for a tight rig market to support higher prices, with scope to beat guidance. Further, the Sukari (Egypt) waste contract will materially ramp up in H2 as volumes pick up; this offers meaningful revenue momentum in H2 and also scope for further contract wins given that the tendering market across all business units is “highly active”. We do not include any further contract mining wins in our estimates and believe there is upside to our forecasts should a new contract be won.
? Model changes and valuation: We update our model for the Q1 results; we bring forward some revenue into Q1 from H2 in the contract mining business to reflect mobilisation income (our total contract mining income for 2021 is unchanged) and model a touch of conservatism in Q3 to reflect the West African rainy season. Our revenue projections increase by cUSD1m to USD192m; we remain within the guidance range of USD185m- 195m but see clear upside to our estimates and the possibility of a guidance beat this year. The company continues to benefit from strong structural tailwinds and at 4x EBITDA with scope for a rerate to a full service
contractor multiple of 5x coupled with attractive revenue growth (42% versus 2020) and EBITDA growth (+53% over the same period), we remain conviction buyers of the name, with a GBp101 per share price target.
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Capital has a stable drilling business, offering drilling ser the predominantly African market, and has shaped its cvices to ontract portfolio (since listing on the Main Market in 2010) to gain
exposure to more stable mine-site contracts, which are related to production. We believe that significant cyclical upside presents itself in this core business, where both rig utilisation and pricing power can meaningfully rally if: i) metal prices (particularly gold)
are strong; and ii) capital markets are buoyant and funding junior
explorers’ exploration programmes.
? In addition to this core business, we think that the company’s foray
into contract mining has the potential to meaningfully grow revenues, given that we estimate that this market is worth cUSD1bn in Africa.
? Our rounded GBp101 price target is based on 4x 2021-22 average
EBITDA (cGBp76 per share); a 50% risked valuation of contract mining upside, at 5x EBITDA (cGBp14 per share); and the value of listed and unlisted investments (cGBp11 per share).
Bloomberg CAPD LN
Current price Price target
GBp64 GBp101 Market cap (GBPm) 122
14/04/2021 London Close EV (GBPm) 145
Trading volume 117,713
Free float 70.0%
Non-institutional shareholders Share performance
Management and founders: 42% High 52 weeks GBp78
Low 52 weeks GBp48
Business description Performance relative to
Weak commodity and capital markets: Weakness in commodity pital markets activity, which would likely weigh on demand for rigs from exploration clients.
? Loss of key contracts: Capital has a number of core drilling contracts that comprise a material amount of revenue. The loss of these contracts would have a negative impact on revenue; however, the company has acted to diversify its revenue in recent years.
? Loss of key personnel: Capital’s operations require skilled operational and business development personnel. Loss of these has the potential to affect contracts and future revenue generation.
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OMG, where do you find some of these videos - the beer man on Admiral's Ale. Yuk and double yuk. LOL.
Nice fox video, though. It made up for the other one.
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Actually, I think the Capital information could easily have been posted on the Centamin board. It is a business that affects Centamin. Other people are posting comments about cryptocurrencies and other things besides gold and Centamin. They certainly won't stop me from posting what I want to.
I think people really do just object to too many political comments. As time goes on and others get to know about this board, we'll have some great discussions about Boris's Brave New World. I remember Mary saying she'd be willing to debate Brexit and the current government's policies. I think she must be a Tory Party member. There are still some about.
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Hi Red Sparrow,
Yes a bit of fun, I agree the bloke drinking the "Admirals Ale" should be chucked in the long boat till he's sober!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52g7ak47IZo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk2y_j-XrIM
Bet these chaps would enjoy an Admirals ale!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk2y_j-XrIM
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MrTibbles
Ha ha. Do you think Goldgnome is a member of the first group in Australia?
There is an open air theatre on the coast in South Cornwall. I think it's in Cornwall. I visited Tintadgel some years ago. It may be there. I forget now. You'd certainly need great weather to sit around there for a couple of hours watching something.
I was a bit disappointed in the Centamin share price today. Gold's having a rest day after a great run. I noticed we had a few pumpers on the Centamin board today. I wrote something early and posted before work and suddenly realized it sounded a bit pumpy and tried to correct it. I really hope the Centamin board doesn't descend into a pump and dump vehicle. I owned some Tullow shares and that board is really not fit for human consumption at times. Tornadotony was on there and sold up a while back. I followed a little later. Tony is a really good, honest chap. You get to know these things after a while. He said goodbye to everyone on the Tullow board and had dozens of recommendations - the most I've ever seen for a post.
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Hi Red Sparrow,
I take your point about the Capital note, but let some of those that were moaning and having a poke at me because I touched a raw nerve have to take the trouble to pick up the info on the Centaminers Table, if they want it.
As some of the longer term members on here will recall during some of the rough patches in the early days you were lucky to see any new posts on the Centamin board at times, it was partly the general chat and banter that helped keep the board alive and us to stay strong. not panic or sell out!
I am sorry that it may cause some inconvenience to some of my other friends and members who know me so well and who were also willing to have a good blather or let off some steam and frustration.
But times have changed, there is a mood of intolerance across the country now and that has intruded onto share chat boards ,so we mustn't upset the serious traders, after all half a minute reading an off topic post could mean them missing out on the deal of they day or making or losing a million, washers that is!
It's a pile of poo really, the markets are all bent as buggery, so why do they try to make out they are an expert's, its all down to luck and being the the right share at the right time,or for the right length of time, that's the clincher!
Anyway things should turn out very well at Centamin, wait and see ,and in the meantime I shall still try to find out what news I can.
Keep well !
Don't let the buggers (Boris & Co) wear you down!
I hoped you liked Steve the donkey, he's my choice for next PM!
Tibbs
Posts: 203
MrTibbles
Well, now that Boris has had the elections and knows we all love him, I notice in the news that he is gearing us all up for another lockdown. There is a very special variant for ethnic minorities in Bolton who refuse to take the vaccine. It's all going to be their fault for not do what they're told.
I haven't had the vaccine either, despite having been sent two letters telling me I should. I don't mind telling you that I used to work for GlaxoSmithKline for many years. I have been keeping on eye on their trials and I know the people involved and I trust them totally. I'm not sure when it will be available - perhaps by year end - so I'll only take that one. I have nothing against AstraZeneca - I have visited their site in Loughborough a few times for conferences and lectures - but the Germans are not happy with the product. I won't go on about Pfizer.
I see Andrew Marr is getting a bit of stick from the Telegraph among others, for his political views. I though it was only looney lefties who were intolerant. I was thinking the other day about Jim Callaghan saying how could Labour compete in an election when the Conservatives were selling council houses to tenants for £7000 and those people were reselling them for £80000 immediately. We have a similar thing now. People are furloughed and earning more than if they travel to their normal place of work - and getting all the time off to boot. Of course they will vote for anyone who is allowing that - they're maximising their income.
I see what you mean about making people read your posts on this board - a good strategy. Yes, there were some cruel things said. People really just don't think sometimes. I still fail to see what harm it does to put an off topic post on a bulletin board. What do you do with a man who walks along a shopping mall wearing a billboard proclaimng 'the end is nigh'. Have a go at him? No, you ignore him - pretend you haven't seen him. So why can't someone just ignore a small piece of writing on a bulletin board?
Posts: 15,008
HI Red Sparrow,
Re Jim Callaghan saying how could Labour compete in an election when the Conservatives were selling council houses to tenants for £7000 and those people were reselling them for £80000 immediately.
I remember that time very well , our council had a growing waiting list for social housing yet we had queues of people demanding to buy at @ 40% discount, even some of those that had over two years of outstanding rent, they got loans from local money lenders to pay off the arrears so they qualified to buy!
They were required to keep the house for two years before they could sell.
It really was a case of the Tory party buying votes, it always seemed glaringly unfair that Thatcher decided that councils should have to give a 40% discount to tenants and yet the private sector landlords some of whom were screwing their tenants, especially those who could claim their housing benefits from the DSS weren't required to offer their properties for sale to existing tenants at a 40% discount!
Also councils weren't allowed to use the fund's raised from the sale of council houses,Thatcher's government decided that councils were not allowed to acquire capital assets so everything from photo copiers to refuse vehicles and buses had to be leased.
Thatcher realised that because councils are tax except anyway that leasing vehicles and equipment is very much more expensive for them,unlike in the private sector where leasing is tax advantageous!
This was all part of the strategy to portray the public sector as inefficient and costly in order to justify it's destruction and the privatisation of publicly owned utilities.
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The donkey is very lovely and far too well qualified to be a Conservative prime minister.
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Evening Mr T and all
Hope I've not missed last orders.
Was disappointed with CEY today - esp when you look at POLY in comparison.
Hope CEY has a steady climb after a poor 9 months or so.
Very unfair to the donkey - to be compared to Boris
Posts: 203
Here is a piece about Brexit from the Daily Telegraph today. It appears things may not go so well for many British farmers.
I hear that Northern Ireland isn't a happy place to be at the moment, either.
Among the advantages of Brexit that were championed by its proponents was that independent bilateral trade deals could be struck with non-EU countries.
Many of the agreements entered into when the UK was a member have been “rolled over” but a lot of major economies do not have a free trade deal with the EU. One is Australia and talks are well advanced to reach an agreement ahead of the G7 summit in June. The problem is that removing tariffs will expose sectors of the economy to greater competition, notably agriculture. Farming representatives have called this prospect a “betrayal” of promises made by ministers.
The Cabinet is reportedly split on this matter with the Prime Minister in favour of proceeding while the Environment Secretary George Eustice is opposed. Clearly there is a negotiation going on and the whole point about such deals is that there are some winners and some losers.
Australia understandably wants tariff-free access to the UK’s market for its agricultural products which will pose a challenge, especially to the hill farmers of Wales, Scotland and northern England. The political pitfalls were apparent in the Commons when the SNP’s parliamentary leader Ian Blackford used the issue to deepen the divisions in the Union, warning that Scottish crofters would be put out of business. Mr Johnson did not dispute that a deal was in the pipeline and urged farmers to find new markets for lamb and beef by competing on quality and locality.
A full tariff and quota-free deal would be phased in, thereby giving the sector time to adjust. Moreover, Canberra will not sign up without such access. If we cannot do a post-Brexit trade deal with Australia it is hard to see who we could do one with.
Posts: 15,008
The sound of us Remainers crying over spilled milk has been replaced by everyone crying over unsold milk,It has been another gloomy week on the sunlit uplands of sovereign Britain.
The dairy industry has been among the biggest losers of Brexit so far, with milk and cream exports to the EU down 96.4% year on year in February. Just £900,000 of the stuff made it out to our former partners, compared with over £24m in February 2020.
Meanwhile, cheese exports were down 65% year-on-year - and although that represented an improvement on the disastrous 85% drop in January, it’s hardly reassuring for firms like County Milk, the UK’s largest privately owned dairy ingredients business.
For although the trade body Dairy UK claims that “normal patterns of trade are resuming as the market smooths itself out”, County Milk’s Phil Langslow told the Guardian it doesn’t yet know the “true cost of Brexit”. “What we are seeing is, it is substantially different and significant enough to just not make [exporting] viable in a number of cases,” he said.
With chicken and beef sales to the EU also down by nearly 80% year on year, the Food and Drink Federation says Brexit has cost British exporters more than £1.1bn since the start of the year, a figure that didn’t appear on any red buses during the referendum campaign.
The trade body has urged Boris Johnson to sort it by reopening talks with the EU, with Dominic Goudie, the FDF’s head of international trade, saying: “Exports to our biggest market, Ireland, have also dropped more than two thirds. UK businesses continue to struggle with inconsistent and incorrect demands at EU borders, and small businesses have been hardest hit.
“It is essential that the EU-UK partnership council and its trade specialised committees are convened to urgently address problems.”
That’s something Johson has so far been unable to make room for in his busy schedule of asking donors to buy his wallpaper and wrecking the union.
The hope for Brexiteers seems still to be that lost food and drink exports to the EU will be replaced by exports to non-EU countries. At the moment, though, it looks a tall order - exports to the EU were down 40.9% overall in February compared to an 8.7 per cent rise to non-EU countries. That’s a loss of £421m compared to a gain of £56m.
And as Andrew Kuyk, director-general of the Provision Trade Federation, which covers the dairy and pig meat trade, says: “If we are struggling to get it into Calais, how easy is it going to be to get it into Beijing, or Tokyo?”
Alas, while the PM milks his local election victories and looks like the cat that got the cream in Hartlepool, the outlook for the dairy industry is very sour indeed!
Posts: 15,008
The results in Scotland and Wales shows voters turned their backs on Boris Johnson, so why not in England?
Why can so many English people not see through Boris Johnson? The Scots and Welsh clearly can - it was as heartening to see the election results north and west of Little England as it was disheartening to see the latter turn increasingly blue.
An increasing majority of the English are very happy to support a pompous, privileged, entitled, blustering liar who promises much but delivers very little - where is that much-vaunted plan for social care, where are all the promised benefits from Brexit?
When will there be an unrigged inquiry into the failings of his management of Covid? Why are there still fires in blocks of flats with illegal cladding?
The Scots and Welsh obviously prefer honest politicians who at least try to act with integrity and believe in a progressive social policy. The contrast between Johnson and serious, sincere politicians could not be greater. No wonder he does not dare to show his face north of the border.
So why do so many people vote for him and his party? Do you want a bragging arrogant chancer who operates in a values-free bubble and gets away with it as your leader, or would you rather have someone competent?
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You must be getting confused. Drakeford and Sturgeon honest politicians lol.
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Johnson is a tool, look it up
johnson
['d??ns(?)n]
NOUN
US
vulgar slang
a man's *****.
Posts: 203
I'm replying to Mr Tibbles latest post.
First, I want to put this link on for you to read.
https://www.tramlinetraders.com/what-are-we-afraid-of/
This chap, John Burford, used to write for MoneyWeek many years ago and for the last ten years has been predicting a stock market crash and depression. Therefore, I shouldn't take much notice of his market analysis! However, I do like to read his blog because there is a great deal of truth in what he says - in my opinion. Today's piece pretty well sums up the current government policy.
I find it deeply troubling that our leaders are spending so much time in laying smokescreens and generally being deceitful to us. It tells me that they can see no way out of our problems and are in damage limitation mode. I believe people vote for Johnson because he is so good at telling them what they want to hear. For example, his tells us that his natural inclination is for liberty (it's only the scientific advisers that want to lock us down - so he must comply with the 'experts'), and wants a low tax economy (so he prints money out-of-hand to try and create inflation - a nice hidden tax!).
I had the misfortune to see a TV programme featuring Rees Mogg during the Brexit debate. He was answering a question from a young audience about why he was a Conservative. During his answer, it dawned on me that he was giving a picture of what he wanted the Conservative Party to be, not what it actually was. I think this is how politicians get elected - say what you think people want to hear, but do something completely different in office - because you have to, but as soon as things are sorted out, we can do what you elected us for (which never happens, of course).
I think the West is in such a mess that the thing the establishment fears most of all is that young, handsome man with all the talk and charisma who gets elected and starts his plan! You know I don't like Nigel Farage and Donald Trump, but in many ways the 'swamp' were very lucky to have those two. They were a wakeup call. Both, generally speaking, are peaceful men - Trump didn't start wars and Farage is quite amiable with a pint in hand and a silly cap on.
I see a crash and burn coming our way and my great hope is that good people will take over. In Britain, I cannot see that leader yet, although I don't follow politics that much. There must be serious people in Parliament who can see the idiocy of all this and are too protective of their postions at this time.
I'm so glad to live where I do at the moment - it is off the beaten track. And I'm due a good harvest of apples this year, so things aren't all bad.
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We need Jim Hacker to deal with this problem reported in the Telegraph. Euro sausage, anyone?
'Brussels will start a trade war with Britain if Boris Johnson overrides the Brexit treaty so that Northern Irish shops can keep selling British sausages, a vice-president of the European Commission has warned.
In an article for The Telegraph – published below – Maros Sefcovic said the EU would react "swiftly, firmly and resolutely" if Britain unilaterally extended the grace period in the Northern Ireland Protocol, which expires at the end of June.
Britain has already unilaterally extended grace periods – on supermarket goods and parcels – earlier this year. The Telegraph understands that ministers are now considering, as a last resort, another unilateral extension for chilled meats, including sausages and mince.
Any such action would enrage the EU, which hit the UK with legal action after the move on supermarket goods.
Under the grace period, chilled meats produced in the mainland can currently be sent to Northern Ireland. However, this will end on June 30, meaning sausages and mince produced in England could not be sold in the province.'
The article goes on, but you get the drift.
We need Jim.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzeDZtx3wUw
Posts: 15,008
we have nothing to worry about by comparison because Centamin will recover,
Helps put things into perspective, we have nothing to worry about by comparison because Centamin will recover, unfortunately this man lost his life just for trying to save the tree's that will now never help to preserve our planets future!
Paulo Guajajara. He stood in the way as loggers destroyed the Amazon -- and was brutally murdered. He isn't alone: One earth defender is killed every 48 hours. But we can help. Avaaz is at the centre of talks to secure global protections for Indigenous peoples and their ancestral forests, grasslands and rivers that support life on Earth. Indigenous leaders are asking for our support -- sign now, share, and let’s deliver a deafening roar into the heart of the talks
Half the Earth's rain forests are now gone. 15 BILLION trees are chopped down every year, decimating our planet's rain forests, jungles, and mangroves. This environmental devastation is intimately tied to the theft and destruction of ancient indigenous lands, and the horrific violence that comes with it.
https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/100_indigenous_land_rights_loc/?brtqjhb&v=133985&cl=18413425635&_checksum=81ed14873c4a70a3d6bd8ecbce5b40c8ac0512669da5b41531c23e87cd57279b
There’s a Global Plan to Conserve Nature. Indigenous People Could Lead the Way (The New York Times)
Protecting indigenous cultures is crucial for saving the world’s biodiversity (The Conversation)
Amazon-dwellers lived sustainably for 5,000 years (BBC)
‘Guardian’ of the Amazon Killed in Brazil by Illegal Loggers (The New York Times)
Record 212 land and environment activists killed last year (The Guardian)
To help the planet, help the forest protectors (Reuters - Opinion)
Posts: 1,477
Hi Mr T and all the Centaminers
I've been out of shares since May and seem to have got lucky with my timing there.
I've been running sown my SIPP to pay off debt, and have just one small investment in a Vanguard FTSE 100 fund.
My plan is to sell out if FTSE hits 7500 and transfer the money over to an ISA investment in due course.
More importantly just to wish everyone here a merry xmas and a prosperous new year.
GLA, Take and keep safe
Cheers - CSDI