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Posts: 2,799
hi CSDI, not that I know anything, but is it wise to frequently keep swapping everything around, as you picked all those stocks for the high dividend, thought it might have been a good idea to stick to aviva can see it going to £4.50 and good dividend, i will hold my hand up I messed up on that one big time, not sure about gsk, put half my aviva proceeds into tesco, think the rest is going in to my largest holding 25% lloyds, may end up regretting that, but if it continues rising, could possibly double my holding, risky i know but might be worth that risk
good luck with everything, you know a lot more than me, it amazes me all the detailed figures you come out with, i wouldn't have a clue, i just look at the graphs to see how they have done, and try to pick company's that increase their dividend each year
Posts: 1,477
Hi Rob,
You are spot on mate - it is not wise to keep swapping frequently as all it does is pay commissions to the administrators !
I am just trying to get my p/f into a shape where it can be left alone for a while - as I planned to do last week LOL.
whenver I see an SP rise by a biggish amount, I tend to take some profit, as too many times they have fallen back if I leave alone. The key is to have a plan.
My main objective is to achieve a dividend income of 5% p.a to reinvest and to beat the FTSE100 on a total p/f basis. But this is pointless when SP falls more than the divi every year.
If I had left alone my original 20 purhcases from 2018 (of 5% each share) I would be far worse off than I am.
My normal target is 10% profit on a HY share. This started very well in 2018. But I have had some collosal drops with too many shares so rather than sit and do nothing, I try to average down, or buy and sell in a trading range. To do this I have to move funds from one sector to another etc.
You are better invested than me, with having at least 50% in funds & trusts which is something I have never really considered, having thought the Stephen Bland HYP would be best for me with its own rules of allocation and diversification of an equal amount of money for each share.
So for now I have 11 shares and a plan for each. 10 of these should be left alone for a while until they reach targets.
PFC is my only trading share and thta has a target SP too.
I have managed to trim IMB; and BATS can act as a HY or Trading share.
The other share I want to trim is GSK, but it needs to recover a long way first.
As for AV it was sold becuase it hit my target near enough. SLA was held for 2 yrs 8 months before I had AV and was sold and moved to AV. It only took 3 months for AV to do what I planned, and outperformed SLA into the bargain, hence the swap. I would expect SLA to be held for some time now.
Fingers crossed, as I have to be careful not to overtrade. Let's hope I can leave alone for a while as previously planned.
I would expect to trade around divi dates for GSK & IMB while I am overweight those sectors.
As of close of play today, my p/f is down 5.37% since inception compared to FTSE down 14.25%.
I cannot wait for the FTSE to move forward as it has lagged other major indices for too long. When will it change, if ever ?
I note you try to pick shares with growing divis, but that has been difficult over the last year and was part of the Stephen Bland HYP plan.
Take care & good luck Rob - I am sure you are actually a far better investor than me.
I am (obv) obsessed with all the stats more than making some money LOL.
Hence I can laugh at myself with the acronym CSDI.
Cheers
Posts: 1,227
If you are considering something in the Fintech sector, there is a small trust called Augmentum that you might wish to consider. I should, at this point disclose that I do hold shares in it. The EPIC is AUGM and their portfolio can be discovered from this link : https://augmentum.vc/our-portfolio
Once markets settle down after the US (IMO, misplaced) fears for inflation, eases then I am sure that there will be a hefty rise in store for equities.
Posts: 1,477
Hi A_S
Many thanks for that. Another one to add to my watchlist. Appears to trade a substantial premium to NAV from what I can see. Offers no income either as yet as a new addtition to FTSE Small Cap that's no surprise.
However one that I really like the look of is a more established share in FTSE 250 - CMC Markets.
I've been aware of this firm for over 15 yrs when it was privately owned.
Looking at the latest TU shows big increases in revenue and PBT and a yield of 3% according to HL site.
The SP is down 16% from its 52 week high, and if my research is correct I can see predicted EPS for FY 03/21 of 60p vs 30p LY. With a current SP of 380, that would be a P/E of just about 6.33.
Just hope I am not missing anything obvious, but that is my plan purhcase on Monday with the 6.5% cash I have from my two late trades on Friday with RDSB and PFC.
There is Full Yr TU due 8th April.
Cheers - CSDI
Posts: 1,227
This time last year, markets were braced for a sharp drop with the DOW shedding 1,100 points. I don't know about you, but between 23 Feb and 23 March the "paper loss" that my portfolio showed was a fall of 35% (equivalent to 17 years salary) from the capital balance on 1 January. 2020 was extraordinary in seeing how disease affects markets and in just 20 days can wipe off all the accumulated "froth" that share prices value to show the raw worth in the chosen equity.
2021 has been particularly difficult but for different reasons - some of the economic recovery has already been priced in but different pressure are in tussle - bonds vs. equities
Long term each has a place but for different types of investor.
From 1979 when I began work, my goal was to create capital from income, thus a cautious approach was taken. I invested in what were considered to be "safe" stocks. Things like Shell and Prudential. Then I was sucked into the age of floatations and discovered the benefit of being a "stag". BT, Jaguar, British Gas etc. I began also to be a little more adventurous with Racal, some unit trusts and, having after 6 years of setting aside £15 per month, plus £500 from Christmas and birthdays found that I had accumulated wealth of £7,000.
It was not a case of putting it all on red, but buying a property and starting a small business. The business failed but the property had some house price inflation and after I had paid all my creditors I had enough to invest again (£2,000) and work this time for someone else. I did, had 3 jobs, one full and 2 part time - for a year by which time, I had enough capital (£10,000) to start a new business. That lasted 3 years but again failed, only this time I did not have the prudence to buy a house. Failure was not my fault - it was through the embezzlement by a rogue partner who was later jailed for 18 months.
I accept failure as I do success, temporary, but now, approaching my late 20's I was eager to fulfil my ambition, marry, have children and enjoy a lifestyle of privilege. 31 years of marriage later, my children are starting their careers with assured earning power, I have had a further 3 failed businesses and 2 successful ones. My regime of saving has continued, but the amounts from salary are exceeded from dividends by a large margin until that bubble popped in 2019.
So, rather than enjoy 3.8% as dividend income, divi's account for a little over 1.1%. Should I be concerned? Well, yes and no. Yes, if dividends were the sole purpose of investment and no because the valuation of a portfolio on arbitrary dates is measured on capital value not the level of income generated, Were the 2nd measure be taken, then I am worth much less today than I was 6 years ago despite a doubling of capital during that time.
So, CSDI, I suppose what I have been trying to articulate is that seeking income might be a poor decision if income is not needed. Capital growth & distribution of it mi
Posts: 1,227
As Spring has arrived, the first quarter becomes history. Markets are forward looking and, dare I suggest it, there is more than a whiff of optimism in the air. I know you have a penchant to chase dividends, but I believe this to be folly and based on a failure to adapt and evolve.
Dividends from FTSE companies in 2018 were 4.68%. In 2019 this had risen to over 5% and in 2020 the bubble burst. The current yield is 3.07%. Therefore to chase your "goal" for yield the sacrifice will be capital growth, perhaps even, capital loss.
The rule of thumb is that the indices for markets, have, for many decades, risen at an average of 7% annually. Indices do not generate dividends so I contend that your target of 5% dividend will see average growth of 2% annually, precisely the result you seem to be achieving.
Spin things around and seek growth that is BETTER than the indices will target 7% growth in capital BUT has the advantage that some holdings will generate dividends - and that is the bonus. If you ONLY invest in FTSE companies and do as well as the index, then you will achieve 7% average capital growth PLUS 3.05% dividend income.
FWIW, I am now back on track (actually, slightly ahead) to reach my target to achieve 18% growth on my portfolio this year.
It is, though, reasonably substantial, invested in equities quoted on markets all over the world and with small exposure to gilts. My reading of the direction that major institutions are taking is that the UK has potential for rapid recovery after turgid performance since 2016 (Brexit) and that although I remain very bullish to emerging market of South America, there is little prospect of growth until Covid 19 is under control.
Again, I hope this is beneficial - it seems I am critical of your decisions - it is not deliberate. It would be idiotic of you to cash everything in and persue a different course from that which you have chosen on the ramblings of this idiot, but I do hope that as you realise investments you will consider a variant course, which, if it is successful, might invigorate lacklustre returns of the past.
Posts: 1,477
Hi Alas,
Latest update as at 7/4/21.
Current Updated P/F: Epic/Sector (% of p/f) Ave cost (C), Curr S P, P/L to date*' Div Yield - Div Recd
1. ASEI- Inc Trust (9.4%) C=324.3p SP=343 P= 7.4 DY = 6.0% DR =5.2p
2. AVST - IT/Cyber sec (6.3%) C=462p SP=462p P=0.0% DY=2.5% DR=0
3. AEWU - Reit (6.4%) C = 82.9p SP= 84.6p P=2.1% DY=9.5% DR=0
4. CEY - Mining (6.2%) C=130.4p SP = 107.4 L=17.7% DY = 6.0% DR =0
5. GSK - Pharma (17.9%) C=1460p SP=1300p L=8.15% DY=6.1% DR=40p
6. IMB - tobacco (13.4%) C=1888p SP= 1516p L=9.1% DY=9.1% DR=200p
7. NG - Utility (6.7%) C=875p SP=888p P=1.5% DY=5.5% DR=0
8. PFC - Oil serv (5.4%) C=108.7p SP=107.8 L=0.9% DY = 0% DR = 0
9. POLY - Mining (6.0%) C = 1493p SP=1431p L=4.2% DY= 6.4% DR =0
10.RDSB - Oil prod (7.9%) C=1973p SP= 1374p L=25.2% DY = 3.4% DR = 101p
11. SUPR - Reit (6.6%) C=107.8p SP=110.5p P=3.9% DY= 5.3% DR = 1.5p
12. Cash (7.8%)
* denotes P/L after divis received/receivable
The P/F has gained 2.2% YTD (Feb was loss 3.2%); and lost 6% (was 9.8%) Cumulative (since start 23/1/18)
My target is to beat the FTSE100 which has YTD profit of 6.6% and Cumulative = 12% loss.
The p/f is slowly being split into two parts - a core of HY shares (60%) and a balance of short-term trading (40%) shares.
Your comments and criticisms are appreciated as these give me alternative views and challenge my historical methods of p/f construction. As a consequence of these comments I have started to invest in areas that I had not previously considered such as Trusts, REITS and technology. I am sure as time develops I will add other themes to the p/f.
The overweight sectors of pharma and tobacco can be reduced to average weightings over time, when I hope the shares will have performed/recovered well enough for me to cut the holdings without crystallising any significant losses. Time will tell.
Cheers - CSDI
Posts: 1,227
Information is critical for decisions to be made - whether it is driving a car on public roads or managing money - I hope we can agree on this, CSDI. Where we differ, is in our attitude to risk and our strategy to use risk to advantage. The most influential markets for investors are US followed by London, Tokyo, Shanghai and Frankfurt.
With that in mind, the professional press that follow these markets very closely include Reuters, Bloomberg but it is the amateur press that tend to flesh things out - they have a far broader readership and potentially more influential - CNBC is one and Al-Jazeera another.
There are 2 stories on CNBC that caught my eye a few moments ago - the first that more money has flowed into markets in the last 5 months than in the last 12 years and second that the economy (in US) is on the cusp of a boom and set to last.
My best years have been from 2016 when my portfolio rose 29.30% and was followed by a rise in 2017 of 29.66%, 2018, 24.84%, 2019 was 30.26% and 13.39% for 2020. Dividends accounted for 2.76% of the growth in 2016 and had fallen to 1.51% in 2020.
I do accept that 2016 onwards have been exceptional years, but possibly the year that was much more important was 2018 as I sold off most of my holding in Shell built up over 40 years to have just 2,000 shares (now down to fewer than 500). So, with CNBC suggesting record growth and the flow of money according to Bank of America at record levels, dividends although important are likely to be outstripped by share price growth. Growth is growth, but persuing a policy that has worked in the past does not necessarily mean that it will continue to work in the future.
Oh, and I have started to buy shares in Shell again, not for the dividend, but as ballast and thus defensive. The shares are in very gradual rising range 1275 to 1550.
Posts: 1,227
FWIW, CSDI, I am not averse to big caps that pay dividends. I have bunged some money into RIO today. From a technical perspective, the SP has moved through its 50 day moving average; both that moving average and the 200 day one are northbound, industry is beginnning to return to work and miners are back in fashion as mined resources are the foundation stone for manufacturing.
I cannot pretend that this year has been easy to get things right all the time, but I am pretty convinced that the catalyst has been from successful and organised vaccination program that nations are adopting, albeit at differing rates. I forecasted a 16% uplift for my portfolio this year and am a little ahead of target (despite being behind between mid Feb and March). If growth continues as per forecast, I might (again) exceed 20% growth. Dividends that are generated although nice are not a core element in my investment strategy, but I hink I have made that pretty clear.
All the best
Posts: 1,477
Hi Alas,
I like your choice of RIO, and think that BRWM is a good choice as a general mining option too.
I am already fully allocated to mining with 2 Goldies - CEY & POLY, which is a bit concentrated as a sector choice.
Oddly enough they have both had a good day as gold has risen a little, maybe breaking out of its consolidation phase around $1700 after a few weeks +/- $30. for me POLY is a short term trade, with CEY a longer term recovery play.
I've put just over 10% of my p/f into some high risk shares (as my fun/play allocation) with 3% 88E - Aim oiler and NCYT 8% after its spat with DHS last Friday, but got in too quickly on both, as already down 21% and 8% respectively - now you know why I call myself CSDI.
On the positive side I've trimmed GSK on todays rise, taking a little profit on my lowest cost batch, down to 15% of p/f with revised average cost 1509p, using my own batch costs rather than the average used by the broker/provider of 1413p.
I've also taken my shears to NG. as that is moving too slowly for my liking, selling for a miniscule profit and looking to invest elsewhere.
Like you I've added to RDSB recently, just 2.5% to reduce average costs, aiming for a trading profit, rather than a LTH.
I am consciously trading more and splitting my p/f bw LTH (mainly for divis) and short term trades.
The overall p/f has risen another couple of percentage points since my recent update, and is on its way to getting back to break-even. Not great (to put it mildly), but much better than it was and compares favourably to my target of beating the FTSE. Just as well I am not comparing to the runaway US Indices, otherwise I could get very depressed !
Cheers - CSDI
Posts: 414
Have you considered investing in low cost passive index funds .....these track the FTSE markets.
More adventurous I’ve just invested in HMEF an index tracking emerging markets
Posts: 1,227
I mentioned that it is important to draw on the information that analysts provide in the public domain. This was published today - I commend it to you:
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/royal-dutch-shell-ceo-future-of-energy-exceptional-leaders-exceptional-ideas-video?subscribed=true&dis=em_2021414_wm_5ideasarticle&et_mid=235682&et_mkid=
Posts: 1,477
Thanks Alas for info. I will look at over weekend.
Cheers - CSDI
Posts: 1,227
It may interest you to note that I am not averse to buying shares in the heavyweights. I prefer doing so through an Investment Trust approach these days rather than with the individual shares. I've taken a very decent profit and disposed of my holdings in Baillie Gifford Japanese Smaller Companies this week and have invested in UIFS.
Time will of course determine the wisdom or folly of my decision. I have reduced my holding in Shell again and will continue to sell into strength.
Posts: 414
UIFS is that a tracker ? I've invested in LCUS a passive tracker following top US companies
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Topdog21, it is a sort of tracker but actually is the index. The defining quality that it is,not just an Investment Trust but also the index . It is a closed scheme in that it has a finite number of shares. It has just 65 holdings that mirror in weighting the principle contributors to the S&P index but also invested in those same holdings.
In short it provides direct exposure to US investments, direct investment in the leading US companies and single US exposure in a single US Sector - in this case US Financials.
I hope this helps, but usual caveats apply concerning research and decisions - I can provide many examples where I have made a total hash of my investing decisions going back decades - if you like what you see, then you decide whether to buy - I cannot make that decision for you. If you decide to buy, then you must decide on the extent of your investment. I do not like to have more than 3% wealth exposed to a single holding but my portfolio has been constructed over many decades and is very different from when I started. It has an appreciation of risk rather than whim and reward rather than hope.
Posts: 1,477
Just to let you know that the CSDI portfolio has now been closed, with funds used to pay down debts.
Accordingly there will be no more postings from me.
Many thanks to those that contributed their time and ideas to offer help.
A special mention to Alas_Smith who has provided many thought provoking insights on this thread.
Best wishes and GL to all.
Thank you - CSDI