United Kingdom Core CPI y/y October 20 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwNzowOjAwLjA7cz1HQlBVU0Q7cj1NMQ

January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.


Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTIwJTIwNzowOjAwLjA7cz1HQlBVU0Q7cj1TMQ

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.0
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 3.2

Today's trade plan

If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.

Tradable pairs

EURGBP
GBPAUD
GBPCAD
GBPNZD
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.