United States Core Retail Sales m/m October 15 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

There are many many lines of data to this report. It’s easy to let the other numbers cloud your judgment.

I focus only on The core month-on-month Figure (MoM)

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 17 2021 Last month Retail sales gave a big upward surprise of +4.9 from the forecast, which is a very large deviation. The overshoot came from the $600 cash given to low earners from the Federal Stimulus package that aimed to boost consumer spending. This was a one-off event so we need to look at this reaction as not normal, It didn't take the market by surprise as it would have in normal times.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28931/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTMxO3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

January 15 2021 Back in January, we had a more "normal" deviation of around -1.2 from the forecast, but the move was almost non-existent.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTE1JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

I will use forecasts of:

Retail Sales - Ex-Autos (M/M) 0.50

Today's trade plan

I'll take a trade if we see a 2.0% from the Core Retail Sales M/M figure with no conflicts from any of the other lines.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.