United States Crude Oil Inventories November 17 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories 1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1500

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1200 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = +700
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -750 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

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