Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Posts: 103
Hi folks, bit lonely out there on the commodities market so thought Id start this chat!! Does anyone out there have any thoughts of the current bull market on coffee commodities? More room to jump in for more profits or draughts in Brazil all factored in and leave things as they are? Any thoughts and start of a discussion would be great. Also interested in other peoples thoughts on cocoa, Sugar, Zinc, Natural Gas and Wheat, either bull or bears and reasons for view on them. Many thanks, just trying to bounce ideas based on commodities around with like minded individuals out there.
Posts: 7,370
Hi besucool: I am an avid fan of the Keiser report on Russia Today with Max Keiser (RT.com). There is a central thread through which commodity inflation features esp. silver and gold. The quantitive easing programme has pumped enough money into the system to inflate gold but property has taken a precedence. (There is a belief that property in central London is inflating due to many foreign buyers purchasing property instead of gold to avoid the storage costs). Coffee specifically has been rising strongly since last November. Poor harvest is blamed. I reckon it's been a good futures bet instead of gold. Why? I think there has been a large sell off due to simple liquidation in order that debt can be covered wholly /partly from companies, governments and individuals before interest rates start moving upwards. Coupled of course with the recent poor growing weather which has affected recent growing season plus commodity fund inflows and the old favourite- E.Asian esp. Sino-Indo middle classes ! I bet coffee shops are popping up just as quickly in the market towns of China as in the market towns of the U.K ! (Mind you, coffee shops are ideal money laundering businesses which are largely cash based !) atb
Posts: 103
Hey PottyTime. Thanks for the Keiser report recommendation. Will certainly take a detailed look into what they have to say about commodities. Usually for commodity news I keep up to date with Bloomberg, USDA data figures, commodityonline.com, WSJ and FT. I find it a bit difficult to speak to like-minded investors interested in commodities hence why I started this thread here. Couldn’t agree with you more with regards to Central London property as I’ve seen it in action myself. Properties all over London worth millions are pretty much empty as it isn’t worth the owner to even try to rent it out when they can sell it as a whole later down the line for an X% profit. Anyway this is old news, but with regards to coffee you do only have to look at any high street and see the demand booming. I wouldn’t agree totally with you regards to the demand of E.Asian esp. Sino-Indo middle classes as the demand is realatively small in world terms from those countries and it would be hard to change their preference for traditional (and cheaper) teas they like. Any major change in demand of coffee from those countries would be slow I think, unlike say western fast food restaurants. Feel free to comeback with me on that one. Any difference of opinion is great as I always try to look at other sides. Coffee has done very well for me since I invested there and I do expect more upside as the price has been in the doldrums for a sustained period, so the weather certainly has sent some of the short coverings to bail leading to a (hopefully) sustained uptrend. Are you invested in any other commodities right now aside from coffee? I’m looking into a play of Zinc as been checking out the supply and demand figures from www.ilzsg.org for it, and they look fairly positive with supply been undercut with numerous net mine closures. Issue being though is the Demand side with concerns of sustained China growth which could more than hamper any upswing in Zinc. Any thoughts on this? Thanks besucool