Reflect & Prepare

Friday, 10th May 2019 13:07 - by Reflect & Prepare

There has only been one key theme dominating the US - and indeed global - markets this week and that has been the purported breakdown in talks between the US and China.  Last weekend, the president announced that the US would raise tariffs on $200bln of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% in an effort to speed up the process and crank up the pressure on China. 

Markets reacted sharply and the US also followed through on the president's threat, with trade reps issuing a note to raise tariffs as or midnight Friday.  The tariffs hit imports due to arrive in the US some weeks away from now, so the markets have stabilised in the hope that ongoing talks between the superpowers can be resolved before the first shipments arrive.  

Even so, Wall Street has been hit hard, as have stocks in Asia, and the recovery is tepid so far as initial talks have produced little progress according to the latest reports.  The leading S&P 500 has lost over 100pts off its recent record highs, recouping a quarter of this on hope alone.  The Dow shed over a 1000pts but has also pulled back since.  

Some believe Fed policy will move to accommodate some of the offsetting factors of the higher tariffs, which at some point will come to bite the consumer and into disposable incomes.  This will make the impact of inflation harder to translate into effective monetary policy going forward.  On Friday, the latest inflation reading saw an annualised (CPI) rate of 2.0%.

In the UK, Brexit talks continue between the major parties within parliament, but as yet, have failed to produce any advancement on the current impasse.  While No 10 spokesmen say talks have been productive, Labour negotiators say the PM is giving up little ground as she continues to stick to her red lines.  Theresa May still hopes to get another vote on her withdrawal bill ahead of the European elections due later this month, though this will face much resistance given little change in the offing.  Tory backbenchers continue to pressure the PM for her timetable of departure, but she maintains that this is dependent on getting a deal through.  

In the meantime, the UK economy continues to show resilience in the face of Brexit uncertainty.  Q1 GDP came in at 0.5% as expected, with the manufacturing sector enjoying a strong month in March.  Business investment also outperformed some of the expectations and anecdotal evidence suggesting a slowdown.  Over Q1, investment rose 0.5% also, translating into a lesser than expected contraction in the year on year numbers.  We get the latest employment report next week, while Brexit talks are likely to crank up a notch as we get closer to the European elections. 

Movers and Losers

ITV -11%: The Co's share price fell as ad revenues slid amid advertising woes. The Co.'s saw its total external revenue fall 4% to £743 million, down from £772 million in the same period a year ago

Centrica -11%: The price of natural gas in the UK is causing the Co. concerns at the moment as the system is said to be oversupplied. 

Sirius Minerals +16%: The Co. has announced its USD 3.8bn stage-two funding package but then commented is “not out of the woods”. 

Next Week

Monday - No real important data points

Interim Result

Obrascon Huarte Lain SA [0MKG]

Bank Of Cyprus Holdings [BOCH]

Diploma PLC [DPLM]

TBC Bank Group Plc [TBCG]

Victrex PLC [VCT]

AGM / EGM

Anglo Pacific Group PLC [APF]

Maintel Holdings PLC [MAI]

Trading Statement

Centrica PLC [CNA]

Dignity PLC [DTY]

Final Result

Centralnic Group Plc [CNIC]

Tuesday - German CPI, UK jobs data, German ZEW, EU industrial production, OPEC report, Weekly API's

AGM / EGM

Amerisur Resources PLC [AMER]

Bank Of Ireland Group Plc [BIRG]

Bank Of Cyprus Holdings [BOCH]

Capita Group (The) PLC [CPI]

Chesnara PLC [CSN]

Igas Energy PLC [IGAS]

Impact Healthcare Reit Plc [IHR]

Permanent TSB Group Holdings Plc [IL0A]

IWG Plc [IWG]

Michelmersh Brick Holdings PLC [MBH]

Microsaic Systems PLC [MSYS]

PV Crystalox Solar PLC [PVCS]

Standard Life Aberdeen [SLA]

St James's Place PLC [STJ]

Interim Result

BGEO Group [BGEO]

EI Group Plc [EIG]

ITE Group PLC [ITE]

Stock Spirits Group [STCK]

TCS Group Holding Plc [TCS]

Telecom Egypt [TEEG]

Zytronic PLC [ZYT]

Final Result

Braemar Shipping Services PLC [BMS]

Great Eastern Energy Corporation [GEEC]

PJSC RusHydro [HYDR]

Land Securities Group Plc [LAND]

Premier Foods PLC [PFD]

Vodafone Group PLC [VOD]

Wednesday - Chinese industrial production, German GDP, IEA report, EU GDP, US retail sales, Canadian CPI, Weekly DoE's

Interim Result

Brewin Dolphin Holdings PLC [BRW]

Compass Group PLC [CPG]

CYBG Plc [CYBG]

Georgia Healthcare Group Plc [GHG]

JPJ Group PLC [JPJ]

Marston's PLC [MARS]

Sanderson Group PLC [SND]

Romgaz [SNGR]

Solid State PLC [SSP]

Ten Lifestyle Group Plc [TENG]

TUI AG [TUI]

Final Result

British Land Co PLC [BLND]

AGM / EGM

Tritax Big Box Reit Plc [BBOX]

Be Heard Group PLC [BHRD]

Jupiter Fund Management plc [JUP]

Playtech Ltd [PTEC]

Rockhopper Exploration PLC [RKH]

Secure Trust Bank PLC [STB]

Starwood European Real Est Fin Ltd [SWEF]

William Hill PLC [WMH]

Trading Statement

Galliford Try PLC [GFRD]

Hargreaves Lansdown PLC [HL.]

Kingfisher PLC [KGF]

Spirax-Sarco Engineering PLC [SPX]

TP Icap Plc [TCAP]

William Hill PLC [WMH]

Thursday - AUD employment change, US building permits, Philly Fed manufacturing, US ADP NFP

AGM / EGM

Capital & Regional PLC [CAL]

Computacenter PLC [CCC]

Genel Energy PLC [GENL]

Gresham House Plc [GHE]

Great Western Mining Corporation PLC [GWMO]

Lloyds Banking Group PLC ORD [LLOY]

One Media IP Group PLC [OMIP]

Oriole Resources PLC [ORR]

Princess Private Equity Holding Ltd [PEY]

Premier Oil PLC [PMO]

Prudential PLC [PRU]

Serinus Energy Plc Ord Npv [SENX]

Seplat Petroleum Dev Company Plc [SEPL]

Safestyle UK PLC [SFE]

Sanne Group Plc [SNN]

Spire Healthcare Group [SPI]

Weir Group PLC [WEIR]

Woodford Patient Capital Trust Plc [WPCT]

Worldpay Inc. [WPY]

Final Result

Burberry Group PLC [BRBY]

3i Group PLC [III]

Investec PLC [INVP]

National Grid PLC [NG.]

SigamaRoc Plc [SRC]

Wincanton PLC [WIN]

Trading Statement

Balfour Beatty B [BBYB]

Just Group Plc [JUST]

Keller Group PLC [KLR]

Premier Oil PLC [PMO]

Interim Result

Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC [ERM]

Grainger PLC [GRI]

Thomas Cook Group PLC [TCG]

Friday - EU CPI, US Michigan data

AGM / EGM

Ossiam World Minimum Variance Nr Uc [0HA7]

BGEO Group [BGEO]

Bango PLC [BGO]

Ossiam Etf Shiller Barclays Cape Eu-EUR [CAPE]

Ossiam Etf Shiller Barclays Cape US-GBP [CAPU]

Ossiam Risk Wght Commo Exg Etf-USD [CRWU]

Ossiam Emg Mkts Min Var Nr Etf -USD [DEMV]

Ossiam Istoxx Eurp Min Var Nr Etf [EUMV]

Hunters Property Plc [HUNT]

Ossiam Stoxx Europe 600 Ew Nr Etf (GBP) [L6EW]

Ossiam Etf Shiller Barclays Cape Eu-GBP [LCPE]

Ossiam Risk Wght Commo Exg Etf-USD (GBP) [LCRW]

Ossiam Istoxx Eurp Min Var Nr Etf (GBP) [LEMV]

Ossiam Emg Mkts Min Var Nr Etf-USD (GBP) [LMMV]

Ossiam US Min Var Nr Etf - USD (GBP) [LUMV]

Real Estate Investors PLC [RLE]

Restaurant Group (The) PLC [RTN]

Ossiam Stoxx Europe 600 Ew Nr Etf [S6EW]

Ossiam FTSE 100 Min Var Etf [UKMV]

Ossiam US Min Var Nr Etf - USD [USMV]

Interim Result

easyJet PLC [EZJ]

Future PLC [FUTR]

Sage Group (The) PLC [SGE]

Ossiam World Min Var Nr Etf USD [WDMV]

Trading Statement

Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC [HIK]

Have a great weekend

Kind regards

Rajan Dhall

The Writer's views are their own, not a representation of London South East's. No advice is inferred or given. If you require financial advice, please seek an Independent Financial Adviser.