RE: ADF SHARE PRICE28 Apr 2024 13:21
FY23: Don't see anything too surprising or worrying in the results, in-line with revised expectations. Well known what the situation was in advance and now in recovery phase as the industry normalises, so the opportunities for growth still remain. I never like the overuse of the word 'resilient' in results as it often hides more damage underneath, but in this case they have been dynamic in adjusting to the situation and managed a decent year, in context, regardless.
Entirely understandable that there is no final dividend but not impressed that they just chose to ignore it, not even a few words to state that or give any indication of likely resumption, other than reminding us that it is "progressive with growth in earnings". Just ignoring something important to shareholders is not a good communication strategy!
FY24: Bit disappointed in the outlook, although perhaps still not enough visibility at this stage of the recovery. In the 29th Feb update they promised further guidance on this in the FY results but there's nothing really new in there. They just keep repeating things like 'normalise' and 'pre-Strike levels' without fleshing out what that might mean. Might need to wait for the 6m to June update in early August to see the promised guidance for FY24.
Overall I'm 'comfortable' with the results but still a little nervous at the pace of the recovery, particularly given the capex invested in H1 last year, and will wait for further updates now.
Ashtead Group (equipment rental, mainly US) also said on 5 March:
“However, the Writers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild strikes, which were settled in December, had a significant impact on the performance of the Specialty Film & TV business and some impact on the rest of the Canadian business, which rents into that space. Parts of the US and UK businesses have been affected similarly. Following the settlement, the resumption of activity in January and February has been slower than we expected.”
Their Q4/FY 30/4/24 update on 18 June may be worth looking out for ahead of ADF HY.